Evening polls: Obama takes the lead in Iowa!

The news of the night: A new Washington Post poll has Barack Obama in the lead for the first time in quite a while in the Iowa caucuses. It is all within the margin of error, but it breaks the remarkable consistency of polls showing Hillary Clinton slightly ahead... and it is sure to change a lot of the narrative of the race in the coming days:

• Obama gets 30% to Clinton's 26% and Edwards 22%. Richardson stays in double-digits, at 11%.
• The internal numbers are pretty bad for the New York Senator: First off, 50% of her supporters say they have never attended the caucuses, against 43% for Obama, which goes against the conventional wisdom that his backers are the least likely to show up at the polls. And the key statistic for Edwards: Only 24% of his supporters would be first-time caucus-goers, which confirms his support is among the core base... which is great news for him and keeps him in the running for the win.
• And in what is perhaps the worst news of the poll for Hillary: When asked to choose Obama, Clinton or Edwards, voters who choose someone else first go for Obama at 34%, Edwards at 28% and Clinton at 15%. Now this will happen on caucus night, as caucus-goers will only be allowed to caucus for candidates who are getting 15% of support at their caucus-place. So if these numbers are correct, Clinton could very well be destroyed and sink to third place.
• What explains this shift? The poll finds that only 15% say Clinton is the most honest candidate, versus 31% for Obama and 20% for Edwards. Similary, 76% and 73% say that Obama and Edwards speak their mind, versus only 50% for Clinton. The constant attacks against the front-runner are starting to stick in Iowa.

This is great news for Obama whose campaign is frustrated after last week's debate. They need to win Iowa, they know it, and the Clinton campaign knows it too. Most of the action in December will happen here... and numbers could change dramatically. And remember that gap can be created fast, especially if a candidate has a big share of second choice support as Obama seems to have. Clinton would likely be very hurt by a third-place finish, though it remains to be seen how much she would slip in later states if she came in second here. It would probably depend on how far behind she is, so she really has to minimize losses here.

Some good news, however, for the Clinton campaign out of a national Harris poll that has Clinton breaking 50% again, which she had not done for a while. She has 52% here. But Obama is also unusually high, polling at 29%. Edwards is left further behind than usual, at 11%. But this should at least reassure the Clinton campaign that her rivals will have a lot of catching up to do even if they win Iowa.

• Romney expands New Hampshire lead

Meanwhile, no such slip-ups for Romeny. Quite the contrary, as a new New Hampshire poll has him significantly expanding his lead, now ahead 33% to McCain's 18%, Giuliani's 16%. Ron Paul confirms his good form with 8%, while Thompson collapses into a humiliating (and probably fatal) 4%, behind even Huckabee's 5%.

This is great for Romney, who needs to show his nomination is inevitable with a IA-NH dual win. But McCain needs to make a move fast. He probably cannot content himself with a second-place showing here, unless it is very strong. He needs a win, or he will likely be left out, for where else could he strike? But Giuliani needs a second-place here for his "surviving January strategy to work," so look for Giuliani to take McCain down just as McCain needs to rise... which should all help Romney.

• Democrats still competitive in Virginia

The first poll that had Democrats leading in Virginia was deemed by all a probable outlier, until poll after poll showed Clinton and other Democrats competitive. And today's new SUSA poll is no exception -- only John McCain manages to put the state away for his party, though Rudy Giuliani at least manages to tie Clinton this time:

• John McCain beats Clinton 51% to 42% and Obama 51% to 41%. Giuliani narrowly leads Obama 47% to 43% but ties Clinton at 45%.
• The two Democrats comfortably lead Romney (48-41 for both) and , and Huckabee (50-40 for Clinton and 50-38 for Obama).

Put this together with yesterday's poll from Missouri and the GOP will have a lot of defending to do on its home turf.

• Gov. Blunt on his way out?

And one down-the-ballot poll to conclude. With LA and KY's gubernatorial elections resolved, the most vulnerable governship now is Missouri's, rated a toss-up in the latest governor rankings. And a poll released yesterday by Research 2000 shows just how vulnerable Governor Blunt is, as he trails Attorney General Nixon (who pretty much started campaigning in 2004) 51% to 42%. Blunt has bad favorables (43-53, compared to Nixon's 47-41). Nixon's advantage comes from independents, who break his way 59-32.