12.18.2007

Yet more polls, as SUSA just keeps it coming

Today is poll-heavy, and my postings are reflecting that. Survey USA just keeps the polls coming today. It released surveys from Iowa and Minnesota this morning, and it now continued with Ohio, Missouri and Wisconsin, all crucial swing states in any presidential race.

First up, Ohio, arguably the most important of purple states.

  • Hillary Clinton demolishes her opponents, leading Giuliani 49% to 40%, Romney 51% to 40%, Huckabee 51% to 39%. But she ties McCain at 45%.
  • Obama, however, runs poorly: He trails Giuliani 46% to 40% and McCain 47% to 38%. And barely musters a one point lead against Romney and Huckabee (43-42).
As always, it's important not to put to much in electability comparisons in the Democratic field, given that numbers are rarely consistent -- though McCain is almost always by far the strongest Republican. These numbers suggest that the state will likely be as tight as it was in 2008, especially when combined with this morning's Rasmussen Ohio poll which had a complete toss-up.

Next comes Wisconsin, one of the tightest races in both 2000 and 2004. And it leans slightly Democratic:

  • Clinton beats Giuliani 45-42, Romney 47-42, Huckabee 49-40, but she is crushed by McCain 49-42.
  • Obama does better, besting Giuliani 48-40, and McCain 46-44. He crushes Romney 53-35 and Huckabee 52-36.
At this point, we really have to admire not that McCain runs best among GOPers, but just how much better he runs. And with that we are off to Missouri, where SUSA confirms Rasmussen's numbers from today:

  • Clinton is ahead of Rudy 49-43. She also leads McCain 50-46, Romney 51-41, but the race is tight against Huck 49-47.
  • Obama actually trails Huckabee 47-45, though he wins his three other match-ups. 47-42 against Giuliani, 49-39 against Romney and 47-44 against McCain.
Surprisingly, Huckabee runs better than any other Republican here. Is that a reflection on his own popularity? Or, more likely given that he has low name recognition, are the other candidates just weighted down by their own unpopularity?

Also, Missouri does look to be one of the most promising 2004 red states for Democrats, as it is leaning in favor of Clinton and Obama pretty consistently at this point. With its 11 electoral votes, Missouri is clearly a major player, and it could very well tip the balance. While all eyes are on Ohio and Florida, Missouri could emerge as a key battleground.

  • Down-the-ballot: NC-Sen and MO-GOV
Meanwhile, we also got some surveys form senatorial and gubernatorial races. In North Carolina, PPP contained senatorial numbers:

  • In the Senate race, State Senator Kay Hagan trails Elizabeth Dole 51% to 39%. Banker Jim Neal is behind 52% to 37%.
Elizabeth Dole is clearly starting off favored, and she is above 50%; but leading unknown challengers by such margins will not reassure Republicans that she is safe, and Democrats might soon regret not having fielded a stronger candidate.

And in Missouri, we get confirmation that Governor Blunt is trailing Attorney General Nixon in his re-election race, 47% to 42%. Most polls are showing a tight race here with Nixon slightly ahead -- which explains why the race is ranked first in our latest Governor Rankings.

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1 Comments:

  • This election could go either way. The Dems have to be concerned about losing Pennyslvania and Wisconsin. The GOP are most concerned about losing Ohio and Missouri.

    I don't think some purple states, such as Virginia, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida, Minnesota and Michigan will change colors this election. However, look at Iowa, New Mexico, Arkansas, Oregon and Kentucky possibly changing colors. The name of Clinton does some strange things that cannot be explained rationally.

    By Anonymous Southern Slav, At 18 December, 2007 20:58  

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