5.03.2008

LA-06 results thread: It's Cazayoux!

10:51pm: CAZAYOUX WINS! 70 more precincts were added to the SOS's website in the space of one minute and Cazayoux had a 4,000 vote lead just among them. With only 4 precincts remaining, he is now ahead by 3,000 votes; no matter how white and conservative the last 4 precincts might be, that will not be enough for Jenkins to catch up (the race has not been officially called yet... so brace yourself for the unexpected, though I really don't see how Jenkins could come back here).

I don't think I have ever experienced something quite like this in an election night: This much unpredictable volatility in a matter of minutes. Even in suspenseful races, we usually know where the outstanding votes are and can thus expect the direction the race is likely to take; here, however, there was little way of knowing since all the outstanding votes were from one parish -- and a parish that is clearly very polarized (a commenter at Swing State Project actually pulled off some stunning calculations to suggest a reversal was coming). This felt like the last 45 seconds of a tight basketball game in which teams keep swapping the lead.

10:50pm: Jenkins takes back the lead! What a race... As different demographics are reporting, the lead in East Baton Rouge (and in the district) is oscillating. With 40 precincts, Jenkins erased a 2,000 vote deficit and is now up 900 votes!

10:45pm: Cazayoux takes the lead for the first time. 50 precincts reported in Baton Rouge (100 more to go), and Cazayoux had a 4,000 vote advantage in those precint alone, giving him a 2,000 vote lead! It looks like those 50 precincts were heavily African-American. Once again, we can't know where the remaining precincts are located.

10:40: Now that the last Livingston precinct has reported, it is all up to East Baton Rouge... which has apparently decided to make us wait with no update to their numbers for 20 minutes now. The reason it is difficult to know what is going on is that this parish contains both very conservative precinct and precincts with significant black population. In the primary last month, African-American state representative Michael Jackson beat Cazayoux by 1,000 votes in this perish. Depending on the demographics of the remaining half of the district, this could really go either way...

10:25pm
: This is getting to be as exciting as Guam! West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana fully reported and Jenkins' lead was down to 900 votes. But a new group of votes from East Baton Rouge inflated Jenkins advantage to 2,000 votes again. Jenkins is back in the lead in East Baton Rouge with half of the precincts there counted... Cazayoux has to win approximately 56% of the remaining Baton Rouge votes...

10:20pm: It's going to be very difficult to know what is going on in LA-06. Apart from the 200 East Baton Rouge precincts, we are waiting for 1 from Livingston (big for GOP), 5 from West Baton Rouge (big for Dem) and 4 from West Feliciana (tight). Needless to say, results from East Baton Rouge will determine where this goes which means we will not be able to estimate where the voters are likely to come from... and we will have to just wait it out.

10:15: Dramatic movement! With a third of East Baton Rouge now reporting, Cazayoux is now ahead by 900 votes in that perish and trails by 2.5% (1,400 votes) district-wide. There clearly is a lot of disparity in the voting patterns within Baton Rouge (there is no way for us to know where results are coming from within a county). Democrats better hope there is more of where this came from... as this doesn't negate the turnout patterns I identified at 10:10pm.

10:10pm
: Compare the turnout by parish today with that of the primary last month and you will understand why Jenkins is leading so big. Republican turnout has dramatically improved, while Democratic turnout hasn't. In Pointe Coupe, a blue stronghold, 1800 voters voted in the Democratic primary and 2500 voted for Cazayoux today. In Livingston, less than 4,000 voted in the GOP primary but Jenkins got nearly 9000 votes today.
Meanwhile, we are back to a 7% lead for Jenkins (4,000 votes) with 52% reporting. Cazayoux needs to significantly improve his showing in East Baton Rouge; he now trails by 1,500 votes there.

10:05pm: Cazayoux is not catching up and now trails by 10% and 5,000 votes. 47% of the precincts have reported and nearly all outstanding votes will come from East Baton Rouge... though Cazayoux trails there by 1,300 votes by now. A surprisingly easy hold for Republicans?

9:55pm: Good news for both candidates. With more than a third of precincts reporting, Jenkins leads by more than 8% (3,000 votes). East Baton Rouge (which has 100 more precincts than all the other parishes combined) is starting to come in and Jenkins is for now ahead by 1000; if he keeps that going, he will have a good night. Also, some of the strongest (but smallest) Democratic parishes are now almost fully reporting. The good news for Cazayoux is that 86% of Livingston is already in, and a large part of Ascension too. Cazayoux will need strong numbers in Baton Rouge.

9:50pm: 18% of the precincts are now reporting, and Jenkins is continuing to lead big, 51% to 46% (a 1,000 margin). The district's two Republican strongholds (Ascension and Livingston) are respectively 25% and 41% in, which is good news for Cazayoux (Livingston is giving more than 70% of its vote to Jenkins). East Baton Rouge, which will likely decide the winner, hasn't really started reporting yet.

9:30pm: Results can be found on the Louisiana SOS's website. Results are trickling in slowly for now. With more than 3% of precincts reporting (plus absentees), Woody Jenkins is ahead 50% to 45%! Livingston County, a GOP stronghold and Jenkins' base, is allowing the Republican to take a big early lead.

Original post
: Polls close in a few minutes in LA-06 and Democrats are looking to get their second pick-up in a row in a red district after their remarkable victory in IL-14. A very Republican district that Bush won with more than 60%, LA-06 was on few people's radar as of the beginning of April. Yet, the GOP began panicking as soon as Woody Jenkins and his sulfurous connections won his primary. The DCCC dumped in more than $1 million on behalf of Don Cazayoux and, despite a short period of time in which it seemed the GOP would abandon Jenkins, Republicans spent heavily on his behalf, boosted by outside groups such as Club for Growth and Freedom's Watch.

A number of internal polls realized in the past month showed Cazayoux narrowly ahead, with SUSA's poll a few days ago finding him to be leading by 9%. However, Republicans have done a lot to nationalize the election and portray the Democrat as a tax-obsessed liberal with ties to (gasp) Barack Obama. Complicating matters even more for Cazayoux is news that African-American state representative Michael Jackson, who lost to Cazayoux in the primary, has been running TV ads in the district to announce that he will be running as an independent in the November general election; this could end up costing Cazayoux some of the support he needs in the district's African-American parishes.

Despite the fact that expectations clearly are that Cazayoux will win tonight's election, keep in mind that such a suggestion would seemed shocking just 6 weeks ago and that the loss of two back-to-back red districts (with MS-01 around the corner) would send Republicans reeling.

Labels:

24 Comments:

  • Taniel,

    What is your main source for the LA-6 special election results?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 May, 2008 21:21  

  • Woody's lead is holding up--so far. This will be a long night in LA-6.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 May, 2008 21:57  

  • What a race! It's surprising that it's so tight.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 May, 2008 22:24  

  • I'm surprised that Woody has held a lead all night--I would believe he would have lost by now.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 May, 2008 22:43  

  • Cazayoux is now ahead by 2000 votes. Good night Woody!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 May, 2008 22:46  

  • Never mind--Woody is awake with a 900 vote lead!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 May, 2008 22:48  

  • Cazayoux won!!!! Up 3,000 votes, 4 precincts left.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 May, 2008 22:50  

  • Cazayoux should have won by a larger percentage--something weird happened in LA-06.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 May, 2008 22:54  

  • Wow, Taniel, you almost sounded like a sports commentator there (though I admit that it was quite an intense election)

    By Blogger Jason, At 03 May, 2008 23:27  

  • The reason the margin was closer was the late GOP push to tie Obama to Cazayoux, which may have driven up GOP turnout. And I suspected the undecideds in the SUSA poll were nearly all Republicans, who needed a reason to vote.

    Obama may be toxic in November in the South. That would be a cause for concern.

    By Anonymous mikeel, At 03 May, 2008 23:41  

  • Republicans brought this on themselves
    1st Baker had to quit early to force his party to defend this seat
    2nd Republicans chose and settled with the flawed and polarizing Woody Jenkins
    and lastly Bobby Jindal had to stick his nose into the leadership races in the legislature, kicking Cazayoux into the race that he just WON!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 May, 2008 23:46  

  • This is bad news for the GOP, as they had just lost a very conservative district. However, if Micahel Jackson is really going to run in the November general election as an independent, he will help Jenkins talk back the seat for the GOP by leech African American votes away from Cazayoux.

    I think the MS-01 race is going to matter more because Davis is a much stronger candidate than Jenkins and the GOP and allied gropus have been hitting Childers harder on Obama in that race then the LA one.

    By Anonymous jaxx raxor, At 04 May, 2008 00:09  

  • The results, direct from the Louisiana SOS website:

    Cazayoux (D): 49,702 (49.20%)
    Jenkins (R): 46,701 (46.27%)
    Casey (I): 3,718 (3.68%)

    Aranyosi: 448 (0.44%)
    Hayes: 402 (0.40%)

    Margin: Cazayoux + 3,001 (+2.93%)

    And this was a CD with a PVI rating of R +6.5.

    Bush won this CD in 2000 with 55%.
    He won it again in 2004 with 59%

    Hordes of money got socked into this race and the GOP tried as hard as it could to pin Cazayoux to Barack Obama as a test to see what would happen nationally. They smeared the name Wright to Obama in every imaginable way.

    And we see the result. The democrat won.

    My take: I am sure Cazayoux won partly because the GOP was actually very turned off by Jenkins, who is a racist and and anti-semite and with a criminal record to prove it. So, had the GOP run a respectable candidate, he probably would have run.

    By Blogger Mark, At 04 May, 2008 06:06  

  • Yea, Jenkins was a shit candidate to say the least.

    When are these parties gonna learn. People vote for CANDIDATES, not parties.

    I'm a GOPer for sure, but no doubt, the best candidate won. Lets hope the GOP doesn't run a total shit candidate in Nov.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 04 May, 2008 06:24  

  • So being associated with Obama is not a problem. The anti-Obama people would have had plenty to say if the candidate had lost. A win is a win!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 04 May, 2008 09:38  

  • 110th Congress as of 5/4/08:
    235 Democrats
    199 Republicans
    1 Vacancy (MS-01)

    110th Congress as of 5/14/08
    236 Democrats with Childers
    199 Republicans
    or
    235 Democrats
    200 Republicans with Davis

    111th Congress Predictions:
    246 Democrats (DEM+10)
    189 Republicans (GOP-10)

    GOP would need to then take 29 seats in the 2010 mid-term election to regain the majority. I assume this was all in Rove's master plan for a continuous Republican Majority right?

    By Blogger KELL, At 04 May, 2008 10:22  

  • I was all for the GOP until the NRCC supported Jenkins-he's a major racist. The GOP is all about power and the ability to keep the socio-economic disadvantaged people down. I renounce the GOP.

    Go Obama.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 04 May, 2008 12:23  

  • i know this is off topic but just heard Hillary say she wasn't interested in the opinions of economic experts vis-a-vis her gas tax gimmick. Last thing we need is another President that won't listen to common sense.(or the "experts") Eight years of one bull-headed jackass is enough.

    By Anonymous mpd, At 04 May, 2008 19:01  

  • The Dangers Nonprescription Drugs hot news
    http://bmxbrake.com/ - buy cheap ativan
    The most common of these effects include sleepiness, dizziness, weakness, headaches, nausea, disorientation, vision problems, erectile dysfunction, speech problems, and hair loss.
    [url=http://bmxbrake.com/]generic ativan online[/url]
    There will be directions on the label which should be carefully followed.
    discount ativan
    Some of the more serious side effects related to Ativan are depression, breathing difficulty, seizures, suicidal thoughts, anger, sleeplessness, and allergic reactions including swelling, rashes, and hives.


    http://www.abrachan.org/ - cheap phentermine price
    I immediately noticed that I wasn’t feeling huingry the day of taking it because usually I am always hungry lol!@.
    [url=http://www.abrachan.org/]phentermine online[/url]
    I weighed 198 pounds when I first started taking Phentermine and now after a month I am presently at 182 pounds.
    cheap phentermine overnight
    The opinions stated should not be a substitute for expert advice from your doctor.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 August, 2010 13:14  

  • In today’s creation of merry technology diverse people waste their days at the computer. This article features tips and hints in search computer monitoring software programs and the moralistic issues with using this typeface of product.
    There are many reasons to over computer monitoring software. The original and first is to television screen your children to earn undeviating they are non-poisonous when online and to limit access to unsuitable websites.
    A another intellect is to observe your spouse when you suspect them of cheating. Another abuse would be to supervise or limit website access to employees who should be working and not using the internet for the benefit of personal use. In withal there are many other possibilities such as monitoring bad activity or openly restricting assured websites.

    If you make up one's mind that [url=http://www.computer-monitoring-software.org]computer monitoring software [/url] is for the duration of you be sure to analyze the uncountable products at one's fingertips on the market to remark the entire that is most talented tailored to your needs.
    The products hand down be dissimilar near access and text put down so be sure to do your homework.
    Let’s bamboozle a look at how the software works.

    Computer monitoring software will secretly work on a computer (including laptops) in the background without any iota of the software in the pattern registry. It last will and testament not appear in the approach tray, the method list, the piece of work manager, desktop, or in the Add/Remove programs. It should not be disrupted during firewalls, spyware or anti virus applications and is completely invisible.
    The lone using the computer wishes not separate fro the software and will utter the computer as they normally would. Steady hitting the distinguished knob, alternate, delete buttons settle upon not open out or conclusion the software.

    So how truly does the software work?

    The software wishes annals websites visited, keystrokes typed, IM (moment message) chats, email sent and received including webmail, chats, applications against, Powwow and Outdo documents and even take for qualify shots.
    The computer monitoring software commitment dissatisfy you apace adjudge if your child is secure or your spouse is cheating. It will also cede to you to block websites or software on the monitored computer.
    The software will obstruction you every detail of the computer use.
    Accessing the recorded facts liking diverge with the types of computer monitoring software. Varied programs order email you the recorded matter in a form of a part file. Some need you to access the computer anon to view the data. The best will own you to access the data online from any computer with a operator login. This is the recommended method.
    So contemporarily that you have stony on using computer monitoring software you are presumably wondering if it is legal. In most cases the explanation is yes regardless how this depends on the shape or nation you physical in. When monitoring employees it is recommended to check with allege laws or associating agreements.
    Of routine using the software may also be a decent dilemma. Should I watch on my children, spouse, or employees? In today’s technological period a issue can be victimized at relaxed without evening congregation the offender. The wakeful nights could culminate in you done find effectively your spouse is not cheating. Or peradventure you decisively arrange evidence that they are. You can conclude employees from visiting inappropriate websites at undertaking via blocking access to them.
    To conclude there are various legitimate reasons to manoeuvre computer monitoring software. This is a valuable tool with a view multifarious and can eschew to save your children, coupling, or business. It is up to you to make up one's mind if it is morally acceptable.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 August, 2010 22:42  

  • Defensive Driving is essentially driving in a demeanour that utilizes out of harm's way driving strategies to enables motorists to speech identified hazards in a expected manner.
    These strategies go immeasurably beyond instruction on basic traffic laws and procedures.

    With defensive driving classes, students learn to rehabilitate their driving skills sooner than reducing their driving risks during anticipating situations and making safe educated decisions.
    Such decisions are implemented based on procedure and environmental conditions the nonce when completing a sure driving maneuver.
    The benefits of compelling a defensive driving pedigree restyle with each state of affairs, but often tabulate a reduction of points on your driver’s license following a ticket and the commitment that insurance rates will not increase.
    In some states, taking a [url=http://www.floridatrafficinstitute.com] florida traffic school [/url] class can mean a reduction of up to 10% in your indemnity rates on a spell of three to five years.
    Objective as the benefits of defensive driving classes reshape with each state, so do the requirements. While most focal defensive driving classes are four hours extended, some can be as long as six or eight hours.

    In some states, students clothed the choice to engage defensive driving courses online or by means of watching a video spool or DVD, while other states only authorize students to take defensive driving in a classroom setting.
    The contents of a defensive driving course are regulated on each style and are designed to parade you based on the laws of your state. However, most defensive driving classes hold back similar information.

    Losses from freight crashes have both popular and adverse impacts.
    About 41,000 die annually as a consequence of see trade collisions, with an additional 3,236,000 injuries.
    About 38% of all ordained heap crashes are demon rum connected with another 30% attributed to speeding.

    The causes of these crashes, excitable weight and price in dollars drained on passenger car crashes are typically covered in defensive driving courses.
    The target of satisfactory defensive driving is to diet the risk of these accidents at hand properly educating students to exert caution and charitable judgment while driving.

    On the roadways, drivers would rather to stock with a variety of factors that can transform their driving.
    Yet some of them are beyond the control of the driver, mental factors can be controlled at hand the driver if he knows what to look for and how to handle it.

    Defensive driving courses show to cynosure clear on how drivers can overcome opposing negatively cognitive factors such as unneeded worry, languor, tense pain and other associated issues.
    The florida traffic instil courses choose forbear you erase points from your license. Additional information choose be posted at a later date.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 03 September, 2010 20:00  

  • hi i came here by here online pokies

    layed out blog post, would love to discover whatever you reveal subsequent!
    online casino

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 15 November, 2012 12:19  

  • [url=http://icamtech.com/led_candles]led candle lights[/url] [url=http://icamtech.com/led_light_bulbs]led light bulbs[/url] [url=http://icamtech.com/led_tube_lights]led tube lights[/url] [url=http://icamtech.com/led_par_lamp]par38 led[/url] [url=http://icamtech.com/led_spotlight]led spotlight[/url] [url=http://icamtech.com/led_display_screen]led display[/url]
    LED Spot Lights

    [url=http://icamtech.com]led lighting[/url][url=http://icamtech.com]led light[/url][url=http://icamtech.com]led lights[/url]

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 28 May, 2013 20:17  

  • http://eekshop.com
    Price comparison is this moreover necessary when all your family members the name implies for more information on all it takes cellphone phone bringing case. Many distributors preserve ready to go to produce money plus mark it is more likely You you may have acquire going to be the same quality relating to cellphone phone cases however cheaper. Even for example about whether or not a resource box could be the somewhat that is not extra expensive having said all that all your family members having said that always maintain to learn more about have to settle for price you pay comparison for more information on prepare a particular that you be prepared for the best estimation to do with assets.?The all over the country story about going to be the fabulous and fascinating Euro million jackpot winning Euro million jackpots. Becoming a multi functional Euro million jackpot winner is not at all easy. It is because needless to say an all in one game of chance during which time your family can drop or at best win. Explained below are a little sooners getting having to do with picking the winning Euro million numbers.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 02 June, 2013 08:12  

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]



<< Home