Two new open seats in the House as two more Republicans retire
Two new House Republicans announced their retirement this afternoon: Rep. Saxton in NJ-03 and Rep. Cubin in WY-AL.
Both were going to face tough challenges in 2008, and they seem to have decided that prolonged life in the House minority was not worth a difficult re-election battle. This dual news will likely have different consequences: Democrats are now much more likely to target and pick-up NJ-03, while Republicans will have an easier time holding WY-AL with Cubin out.
New Jersey's 3rd district is very swing: It went for President Bush by 3% in 2004, which makes it a red district on the scale of New Jersey, but somewhere Democrats can definitely compete. They were already excited about this district before Saxton's retirement as they had recruited state Senator John Adler who they viewed as a top-tier candidate -- NJ-05 was rated a toss-up in my latest House rankings. The seat will be even more competitive now that it is open. Republicans will likely have a strong candidate of their own, and they are already looking at a state Senator of their own, Diane Allen.
This is the kind of district that Democrats were successful in 2006, especially in open seats. And the GOP has so many open seats to defend next year that news like this is terrible for the party -- they will likely have to pour so much resources defending those that they will not have much less to go on the attack against freshmen vulnerable Democrats.
The situation in Wyoming is different, as the GOP might have an easier time defending an open seat than getting Cubin through the finish line. The state is arguably the most Republican state in the country, and the fact that it was even competitive was due to Cubin's weakness. She barely survived by a point in 2006 against Democrat Gary Trauner after threatening to slap the Libertarian candidate who was in a wheelchair... Trauner was back for a rematch, and it was likely going to go down the wire again.
Republicans already have a candidate in the race, and a high-profile one at that. The state House Majority Leader Colin Simpson was challenging Cubin in the GOP primary, and he will now have an easier time without an incumbent. Simpson is also the son of a former Senator. In a presidential year in ruby red Wyoming, Republicans are likely to start with a clear edge now that they don't have to run Rep. Cubin.
But don't count Democrats out: They were numerous similar open seats in 2006 in very Republican districts, and Democrats were surprisingly competitive in a number of them -- for example CO-05. So expect WY-AL to be competitive, and Republicans to have to dump significant sums, resources, and energy into defending it. And though he came up short, Trauner proved in 2006 that he was a strong candidate that should not be easily dismissed.
Both were going to face tough challenges in 2008, and they seem to have decided that prolonged life in the House minority was not worth a difficult re-election battle. This dual news will likely have different consequences: Democrats are now much more likely to target and pick-up NJ-03, while Republicans will have an easier time holding WY-AL with Cubin out.
New Jersey's 3rd district is very swing: It went for President Bush by 3% in 2004, which makes it a red district on the scale of New Jersey, but somewhere Democrats can definitely compete. They were already excited about this district before Saxton's retirement as they had recruited state Senator John Adler who they viewed as a top-tier candidate -- NJ-05 was rated a toss-up in my latest House rankings. The seat will be even more competitive now that it is open. Republicans will likely have a strong candidate of their own, and they are already looking at a state Senator of their own, Diane Allen.
This is the kind of district that Democrats were successful in 2006, especially in open seats. And the GOP has so many open seats to defend next year that news like this is terrible for the party -- they will likely have to pour so much resources defending those that they will not have much less to go on the attack against freshmen vulnerable Democrats.
The situation in Wyoming is different, as the GOP might have an easier time defending an open seat than getting Cubin through the finish line. The state is arguably the most Republican state in the country, and the fact that it was even competitive was due to Cubin's weakness. She barely survived by a point in 2006 against Democrat Gary Trauner after threatening to slap the Libertarian candidate who was in a wheelchair... Trauner was back for a rematch, and it was likely going to go down the wire again.
Republicans already have a candidate in the race, and a high-profile one at that. The state House Majority Leader Colin Simpson was challenging Cubin in the GOP primary, and he will now have an easier time without an incumbent. Simpson is also the son of a former Senator. In a presidential year in ruby red Wyoming, Republicans are likely to start with a clear edge now that they don't have to run Rep. Cubin.
But don't count Democrats out: They were numerous similar open seats in 2006 in very Republican districts, and Democrats were surprisingly competitive in a number of them -- for example CO-05. So expect WY-AL to be competitive, and Republicans to have to dump significant sums, resources, and energy into defending it. And though he came up short, Trauner proved in 2006 that he was a strong candidate that should not be easily dismissed.
posted by Taniel at
3:12 PM
1 Comments:
Since New Jersey has voted in over 100 criminal elected officials in the last five years alone, one could ony surmise that staying home to pick their nose on election day would provide them a better outcome.
By
Winghunter, At
12 November, 2007 18:52
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