Congressional Republicans lose a candidate in New Jersey and gain one in Louisiana

• Kennedy running in LA-Sen
  

Louisiana's state Treasurer John Kennedy finally jumped in the Louisiana Senate race. He switched parties at the end of August, which was basically a confirmation that he was intending to challenge Senator Mary Landrieu. Since then, he won re-election for his seat in October (without facing any opposition though he ran ads seeking to prepare the ground for his Senate run).

In officially declaring his candidacy, Kennedy also released the results of a poll he commissioned with Zogby. The poll shows him in the lead, 45% against 38% for Landrieu. This is the first poll I believe we are seeing of the Louisiana race. Take it with a grain of salt for two reasons: (1) It is an internal poll, and (2) Louisiana has become notoriously difficult to poll since Katrina, and very few surveys are released from the state. However, there is no question that a 38% showing for an incumbent is bad news no matter the circumstances. 50% is the threshold under which an incumbent can expect a very tough race -- and not breaking 40% is obviously a sign that things could go wrong very fast.

The race is currently ranked 5th on my Senate rankings as a "toss-up." There have been conflicting signs as to how this race might play out: GOP Bobby Jindal and Democrat Mitch Landrieu (Mary's brother) overwhelmingly won Governor and LG in October; last week, the runoff for the state legislature yielded conflicting messages once again, as Democrats held to majorities in both the House and the Senate but endured losses in both. Kennedy appears to have a very good at picking-up this seat, but we shall see how the race develops -- and how other polls see the race.

• Allen out in NJ-03

Meanwhile, the GOP is continuing to have recruiting trouble in open races. Republicans were touting the candidacy of state Senator Diane Allen in NJ-03, left open by Rep. Saxton's retirement. But Diane Allen bowed out today, saying she would not run for the seat. Now, Democrats have their highly touted recruit running (state Senator John Adler, who was already a candidate before Saxton announced his retirement), but the GOP will have to scramble to find a candidate who can keep the seat in Republican hands.

NJ-03 is starting to resemble IL-11, a competitive district where the filing deadline has already passed. There, Democrats also got their first choice in (the senate Majority Leader) while the GOP's favored candidate decided to stay out. It goes without saying that Democrats could make some major gains next November if they pick-up these districts that keep opening up and where the GOP is struggling to get its act together.

Two new open seats in the House as two more Republicans retire

Two new House Republicans announced their retirement this afternoon: Rep. Saxton in NJ-03 and Rep. Cubin in WY-AL.

Both were going to face tough challenges in 2008, and they seem to have decided that prolonged life in the House minority was not worth a difficult re-election battle. This dual news will likely have different consequences: Democrats are now much more likely to target and pick-up NJ-03, while Republicans will have an easier time holding WY-AL with Cubin out.

New Jersey's 3rd district is very swing: It went for President Bush by 3% in 2004, which makes it a red district on the scale of New Jersey, but somewhere Democrats can definitely compete. They were already excited about this district before Saxton's retirement as they had recruited state Senator John Adler who they viewed as a top-tier candidate -- NJ-05 was rated a toss-up in my latest House rankings. The seat will be even more competitive now that it is open. Republicans will likely have a strong candidate of their own, and they are already looking at a state Senator of their own, Diane Allen.

This is the kind of district that Democrats were successful in 2006, especially in open seats. And the GOP has so many open seats to defend next year that news like this is terrible for the party -- they will likely have to pour so much resources defending those that they will not have much less to go on the attack against freshmen vulnerable Democrats.

The situation in Wyoming is different, as the GOP might have an easier time defending an open seat than getting Cubin through the finish line. The state is arguably the most Republican state in the country, and the fact that it was even competitive was due to Cubin's weakness. She barely survived by a point in 2006 against Democrat Gary Trauner after threatening to slap the Libertarian candidate who was in a wheelchair... Trauner was back for a rematch, and it was likely going to go down the wire again.

Republicans already have a candidate in the race, and a high-profile one at that. The state House Majority Leader Colin Simpson was challenging Cubin in the GOP primary, and he will now have an easier time without an incumbent. Simpson is also the son of a former Senator. In a presidential year in ruby red Wyoming, Republicans are likely to start with a clear edge now that they don't have to run Rep. Cubin.

But don't count Democrats out: They were numerous similar open seats in 2006 in very Republican districts, and Democrats were surprisingly competitive in a number of them -- for example CO-05. So expect WY-AL to be competitive, and Republicans to have to dump significant sums, resources, and energy into defending it. And though he came up short, Trauner proved in 2006 that he was a strong candidate that should not be easily dismissed.