Senate diary: Mitch McConnell moving to protect himself

Kentucky has become quite a hot race in the past few weeks, springing up quite unexpectedly considering that Democrats still don't have a candidate in the race! This is what one or two weak showings in polls does to the media narrative and to the dynamics of a race.

Today, McConnell began to air two ads in the state, comparing himself to the Senator Alben Barkley, who was the Senate Democratic Leader during the New Deal era. In essence, McConnell is arguing that Kentucky greatly benefits by having a senator so high in Senate leadership. It is interesting that the ad says that "now McConnell is serving as his party's leader," avoiding direct mention of the Republican Party... a sure sign that the party brand is now hurting candidates, even in red Kentucky.

McConnell's decision to run ads this early in the cycle is a sure sign that he is taking his re-election race very seriously, and he is getting worried. Naturally, the fact that Kentucky took a sharp blue turn on Tuesday did not arrange things for McConnell. Granted, the circumstances of Beshear's win in the governor's race were very particular given the extent of Fletcher's legal troubles, but there is reason to believe that the GOP's (and McConnell's) woes in Kentucky comes from Fletcher in the first place.

The DSCC is pressuring State Auditor Crit Luallen to jump in the race, and some reports are implying she is getting close to doing so. Chuck Schumer appears to be touting a poll commissioned by the DSCC showing Luallen trailing by only 3%. Democrats would obviously love to unseat McConnell and get some revenge from the GOP's unseating Tom Dashle in 2004. As for those who believe that Hillary at the top of the Dem ticket would hurt the Democratic Senate nominee, just look at these recent Kentucky polls that have Clinton... leading in the state.

• NM too close to call... except if Udall jumps in

Research 2000 just released a new poll commissioned by Daily Kos of the New Mexico Senate race. The bottom line: The race will be a toss-up if Dems nominate Marty Chavez, but will clearly favor them if Tom Udall gets in the race and becomes the nominee:

• Chavez trails Heather Wilson 45% to 42% and Steve Pearce 40% to 39%.
• Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, who categorically ruled out a run last week, trails Wilson 44 to 43 but leads Pearce 45% to 39%.
• Rep. Udall has massive leads: 55% to 38% against Wilson, 54% to 37% against Pearce.
• Underlying these results are the favorability ratings of the candidate: Udall's stands at 51%, compared to 46% for Wilson and 42% for Pearce and Chavez.

Udall had ruled out a run before reopening the door last week and indicating he would announce his decision within two weeks -- so we should know whether Democrats start the race of in a tie or favored soon.

• House races making news
  

Two very quick notes on House races in this Senate diary. First, the DCCC is letting out word of an internal poll conducted in MI-09, one of the races Democrats are most excited about next year. It shows Rep. Knollenberg with a 42% to 35% lead against former state Senator Peters. As always, a lead under 50% is a sure sign of vulnerability, and this race is likely to come down to the wire.

Second, here is a new seat to add to the list of vulnerable GOP-held districts: KY-02. Democrats recruited state Senator Boswell to run against Rep. Lewis. Given the troubles of KY Republicans, who have lost two House seats in the past 3 years, Democrats have reason to hope here.