Poll update: When Wyoming becomes a (congressional) battleground

The Rules and Bylaws committee is about to convene, and it is remarkable that the Democratic primaries have made a meeting about party rules must-see political spectacle. It will take a few hours to figure out what decision -- if any -- comes out of the committee, so for now let's start with the day with a look at the latest polls. I never thought the day would come when I would lead a poll update post with a survey from Wyoming, but a Research 2000 poll released yesterday is certainly noteworthy:

• In the open and at-large House seat currently held by Republican Rep. Cubin, Democrat Gary Trauner narrowly leads Republican Cynthia Lummis, 44% to 41%. Among independents, Trauner leads 58% to 32%.

• In the presidential match-up, John McCain is leading Obama 53% to 40% in a state Bush triumphed in 2004 69% to 29%. Obama has the narrowest of leads among independents.

There are many signs that the GOP is in trouble in the Mountain West and that the Republican brand is suffering in many states in which the party is used to dominate. Wyoming is too red a state for Democrats to have a chance at the presidential level, but a Trauner victory would be a shocking development that seems very much in reach. Keep in mind that at-large congressmen positions are often stepping-stones for statewide office, either the governorship or the Senate, so a House victory by Trauner could cost the GOP a Senate seat down the line (see North Dakota, for instance, where the entire congressional delegation is made up of Democrats).

Meanwhile, three general election polls were released yesterday by three different polling institutes:

• In Wisconsin, SUSA found Obama ahead of McCain 48% to 42% in its latest installment of VP match-ups. Obama leads McCain by 17% among independents. When vice-presidents are included, the range varies though there is little surprising that cannot be explained by name recognition.

• In California, the all-important Field Poll finds both Democrats leading McCain by 17%: 52% to 35% for Obama and 53% to 36% for Clinton.

• In Washington, the Elway poll finds Democrats leading as well, 44% to 38% for Obama and 41% to 36% for Clinton. 74% of Clinton supporters would vote for Obama, which is certainly a decent number.
  

No surprises in those match-ups, except perhaps the fact that Obama does not run stronger than Clinton in Washington. After all, the Pacific Northwest is a region in which Obama typically runs better than Clinton. Also, the latter poll suggests that Washington State is not quite as secure for Obama as some have been suggesting. It is true that Obama's appeal will be strong here, but the McCain campaign believes that it, too, can find a way to woo Washington independents. As for California, there have been some polls in recent weeks that have found a single-digit race but most surveys found McCain lagging far behind. This is key, for Democrats cannot afford to waste any time and money defending the Golden State without which they have no electoral path to the White House.

House diary: Has Tom Davis finally reached a decision?

Tom Davis has been taking a lot of time to decide whether he wants another term in the House. Davis, who had prepared himself for years to run for Senate, had to withdraw from the Senate race earlier in the fall when the state GOP chose to hold a convention rather than a primary to settle on its nominee. That gave too much of an edge to former Governor Gilmore and Davis announced he would not run for higher office.

But that did not answer the question of whether he would run for re-election in VA-11, and the speculation only intensified after his wife was crushed in her re-election campaign to the Virginia House of Delegates -- underscoring just how blue that area of Northern Virginia is trending.

Now, reports are coming in (via NLS, especially) that Tom Davis has decided to retire; he will reportedly make this announcement at the end of the week. This open seat could be one of the biggest headaches for House Republicans yet, as VA-11 looks to be trending too Democratic at this point for the NRCC to attempt a credible defense of the seat. Not to mention that the Democratic candidate, former Rep. Leslie Byrne, is a strong and credible contender who the party is excited about.

If it is confirmed in the coming days, Davis's retirement would be one of the biggest blows yet to the GOP's prospects in the House. More soon.

Democrats got more good news this week-end as the first public independent poll of the Wyoming At-Large seat -- one of the most Republican districts in the country -- gives a small edge to the Democrat. The poll is a Mason-Dixon survey and is thus very reliable. It has Democrat Gary Trauer edging out Republican Cynthia Lummis 41% to 40%. Trauer lost a nail-biter to Rep. Cubin in 2006. But because Cubin has always been an unpopular figure, her retirement earlier in the fall was seen as good news for the GOP.

Yet, it looks like Republicans will have trouble defending this open-seat. Trauer and Lummis have equivalent name recognition, so that is not helping either of them right now. The big problem for Trauer, of course, is how he can go from 41% to 50%. In a very red state in a presidential year, it will not be easy to get those extra points to a majority.

Two new open seats in the House as two more Republicans retire

Two new House Republicans announced their retirement this afternoon: Rep. Saxton in NJ-03 and Rep. Cubin in WY-AL.

Both were going to face tough challenges in 2008, and they seem to have decided that prolonged life in the House minority was not worth a difficult re-election battle. This dual news will likely have different consequences: Democrats are now much more likely to target and pick-up NJ-03, while Republicans will have an easier time holding WY-AL with Cubin out.

New Jersey's 3rd district is very swing: It went for President Bush by 3% in 2004, which makes it a red district on the scale of New Jersey, but somewhere Democrats can definitely compete. They were already excited about this district before Saxton's retirement as they had recruited state Senator John Adler who they viewed as a top-tier candidate -- NJ-05 was rated a toss-up in my latest House rankings. The seat will be even more competitive now that it is open. Republicans will likely have a strong candidate of their own, and they are already looking at a state Senator of their own, Diane Allen.

This is the kind of district that Democrats were successful in 2006, especially in open seats. And the GOP has so many open seats to defend next year that news like this is terrible for the party -- they will likely have to pour so much resources defending those that they will not have much less to go on the attack against freshmen vulnerable Democrats.

The situation in Wyoming is different, as the GOP might have an easier time defending an open seat than getting Cubin through the finish line. The state is arguably the most Republican state in the country, and the fact that it was even competitive was due to Cubin's weakness. She barely survived by a point in 2006 against Democrat Gary Trauner after threatening to slap the Libertarian candidate who was in a wheelchair... Trauner was back for a rematch, and it was likely going to go down the wire again.

Republicans already have a candidate in the race, and a high-profile one at that. The state House Majority Leader Colin Simpson was challenging Cubin in the GOP primary, and he will now have an easier time without an incumbent. Simpson is also the son of a former Senator. In a presidential year in ruby red Wyoming, Republicans are likely to start with a clear edge now that they don't have to run Rep. Cubin.

But don't count Democrats out: They were numerous similar open seats in 2006 in very Republican districts, and Democrats were surprisingly competitive in a number of them -- for example CO-05. So expect WY-AL to be competitive, and Republicans to have to dump significant sums, resources, and energy into defending it. And though he came up short, Trauner proved in 2006 that he was a strong candidate that should not be easily dismissed.