Morning polls: Now here is reason for Clinton to actually get worried

• Clinton sliding in New Hampshire

It was one thing for Clinton to slip in national primary polls in the past week, it is quite another to do so in a crucial early voting state like New Hampshire. But the new Rasmussen New Hampshire poll out this morning has Hillary sliding: She leads 34% to 24% for Barack Obama, 15% for John Edwards, and 8% for Bill Richardson. Rasmussen notes that 34% is the lowest Clinton has stooped to in the state all year. Last month, Rasmussen pitted the race at 40% to 17% -- a stark difference.

Clinton's inevitability narrative had emerged from the staggering leads she had built in every single contest except Iowa. She had gone up from a modest edge in NH and South Carolina last spring and early in the summer to massive double-digits leads throughout late summer and early fall, suggesting that Obama and Edwards could only stop her in Iowa. More worrisome for Clinton is that she had started to build such an advantage that even an Iowa stumble might not have hurt her enough. She might have dropped 10% in New Hampshire, but she was ahead by much more. But there is now a flurry of state and national polls showing a Clinton decline -- two months from the Iowa caucuses, Hillary should be careful.

• USA Today has her in the lead
  

At least Hillary gets good news from a new USA Today/Gallup poll that shows her comfortably winning against Rudy Giuliani in the general election, 51% to 45%. There have been a few general election polls with roughly the same results in the past few days. In the primary, Hillary has not stumbled: She is ahead 50%, ahead of Obama's 22%.

This is the first poll with Clinton at 50% in a while... as many national primary polls have shown her dropping around 7 to 10% recently. The Marist poll conducted its survey before and after the debate and showed Hillary going down from 51% in the days preceding it to 43% in subsequent days.

• Giuliani ahead in the Florida primary

Rudy Giuliani once counted on Florida as his firewall state, the place he could count on if erything else went badly. Those days are long gone. A new SUSA poll has him leading the state's primary, but by margins resembling what we see other places -- and Romney looks stronger than he used to, suggesting that his recent ad campaign in the state might be paying off. Giuliani is leading with 34%, ahead of Thompson's 22% and Romney's 17%. McCain is a distant fourth at 10%.

Don't forget that Florida will be voting sixth in January, and that Floridians will definitely be impacted by what happens in IA, NH, MI, SC, and WY, none states in which Rudy looks very strong at the moment. By the time the campaign stops in Florida, Rudy's once mighty lead will likely have evaporated if he does not manage to make something happen in New Hampshire or in South Carolina. The same applies to all the Feb. 5th states in which Rudy is strong for now.

• Third MN-Sen poll in three days

Could someone explain why the Minnesota Senate race is suddenly being over-polled, after months of sporadic surveys? SUSA just released its second poll in three days (we also had a Rasmussen poll yesterday), and its results confirm what we saw earlier in the week: Coleman is vulnerable, and polls under 50%. He leads Al Franken 48% to 44% and Mike Ciresi 49% to 43%. MN is currently ranked sixth on my latest Senate Rankings.