Morning polls: More proof that the 2008 elections will be national

As I noted yesterday, it appears that there will not be many states that will be safe for either party come 2008. With Clinton tying the GOP in traditionally red states like Texas, Kentucky and Virginia, and with Rudy running very strong in Democratic bastions like Connecticut and New Jersey, we are in for a national election.

Today, a new poll from Tennessee indicates that the state might very well be competitive in 2008, which would be a huge surprise given how much it went away from Dems in the past two cycles, even voting against for native son Al Gore in 2000. In this new poll:

• Fred Thompson runs the strongest, which is normal given that he is from here and represented the state in the Senate. But even he beats Hillary in single-digits: 50% to 42%. Against Obama, Thompson leads 55% to 34%.
• Hillary is very competitive against Rudy Giuliani, who she ties at 43% and against John McCain, trailing 45% to 42%.
• Obama runs weaker, trailing Giuliani 44-36 and trailing McCain 44-35. Notice that in both cases the Republican does not attract more votes than against Clinton, but that it is the Democrat who attracts more vote -- a function also of the benefits of being a polarizing figure.

This poll confirms the results of a Rasmussen poll taken in September, that also has Clinton very competitive against Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, so this is not an isolated result. No doubt, Democrats would be delighted to be able to compete in Republican turf like Tennessee. We should probably get used to thinking of 2008 in very different terms than 2004. Also, numbers like this call into question the concerns of some Democrats that Clinton at the top of the ticket would doom their chances in down-the-ballot races. But in fact, Clinton appears much stronger than expected in the South, and the GOP should be more worried about the effect Rudy would have on its chances in Southern states.

• Clinton climbs back to national leads

Rasmussen had shown Hillary Clinton climbing into comfortable leads nationally against Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson, only to find Giuliani rising fast two weeks ago and taking a surprising lead against the Democrat. No more: The latest Rasmussen poll has Clinton back ahead.

She leads both Rudy and Thompson by the same margin: 48% to 42%. There have been many polls this past week that have had Clinton with a 6 points lead against Rudy, so that seems to be where the race is stabilizing and the average of all national surveys. This will likely change a lot in the coming months, but it is a striking change since the beginning of the cycle when Clinton was systematically down double-digits, in a sign she was not electable. Also, Clinton and Giuliani have roughly the same favorable rating: 47-50 for Hillary, and 47-47 for Rudy.