Two major endorsements in the Republican race

Quite a morning in the Republican race, with two major social conservative figures issuing endorsements to two different candidates: Pat Robertson announced he is backing Rudy Giuliani, and Senator Sam Brownback has lined up behind John McCain. This leaves Mitt Romney as the big loser of the day. He has been heavily courting the Religious Right in recent weeks, but his rivals have fought back to limit the damage and have done a very effective job of neutralizing any advantage Romney was developing among social conservatives.

Pat Robertson, one of the best-known Christian conservative leaders and the founder of the Christian Broadcasting Network, cited the need to counter the "bloodlust of Islamist terrorists" and his conviction that Giuliani is best suited to wage that war. Robertson's influence has slightly decreased in the past decade, but he remains a figure most socially conservative Republican voters have heard of. And that Robertson is comfortable enough with Rudy Giuliani to enthusiastically support him will leave very little space for other Religious Right leaders to mount a credible effort to stop Giuliani from getting the nomination.

Throughout September and October, news trickled that prominent figures like Tony Perkins and James Dobson were ready for open warfare against the Republican frontrunner, and threatened to run an independent third-party candidate that would sink the Giuliani campaign in the general election. But Rudy's team very effectively pushed back on this story, and there were indications by the end of October that he had effectively neutralized the wrath of the Religious Right, and this fits right in that storyline. The big threat to Giuliani's nomination has always been his moderation on social issues, but I think today is the first day I have stopped believing that will sink him in any way, shape or form. Simply put, conservative voters see Giuliani as the strongest barrage against Islamic fundamentalism, and that is more important in their book than everything else.

Meanwhile, former candidate and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback is backing Senator McCain, lauding him as the pro-life candidate with the best chance of winning against Hillary Clinton. Brownback's dropped out of the race in mid-October, so he did not take long to pick sides. Throughout his campaign, Brownback had shown nothing but disdain for Mitt Romney, so one thing that appeared certain was that he would not be endorsing the former MA Governor. But Brownback surprised many shortly after dropping out by meeting with Giuliani -- could the pro-life crusader endorse the former Mayor with a shady pro-choice past? At the end of the day, Brownback went with the safer choice -- though his public flirtation with Rudy could add to the perception that Rudy has become acceptable to the Religious Right.

This is exciting news for the McCain campaign, which is showing some new life in recent polls. Brownback had built a legitimate Iowa organization before dropping out -- after all, he hails from a neighboring state and has a natural base of support in Iowa. That network could now benefit John McCain, especially if the AZ Senator emerges as a credible social conservative (what a switch since 2000!). And this could particularly hurt Mike Huckabee, who is hoping to recuperate the votes of Iowans left orphaned by Brownback's departure, as Huckabee occupies a similar niche in the race. With Huckabee rising in the polls and perhaps even threatening Romney for first place, anything that helps the lower-ranked campaigns of McCain and Rudy in the state is bad news for his campaign.