It's still recruitment season in congressional races... except in Illinois

• Republicans relieved in OH-15

Ohio's 15th district was turning out to be a nightmare for Republicans. The seat had opened up over the summer, as Democrats were already running their 2006 nominee (who came so close of winning then), Mary Jo Kilroy. One by one, all first-tier and second-tier Republicans declined to run for the seat, leading to speculation that the GOP would just concede the states. I ranked OH-15 "lean take-over" in my last House ratings, as the situation was turning catastrophic for the GOP.

But state Senator Steve Strivers changed his mind a few days ago and announced that he was running after all. Stivers was one of those Republicans the GOP had tried to recruit early on and failed, so this is definitely good news for them. Democrats remain slightly favored because of the national environment, the very competitive nature of the seat, and simply the fact that Kilroy came within a point of defeating the incumbent in 2006! But it will now likely remain tight throughout the season rather than be a blowout for the Democrat.

• Democratic woes continue in Nebraska

Many Democrats have crossed out any hope they had of picking up the Nebraska Senate seat once Bob Kerry announced he would not run, but others believed that Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey could make this competitive against GOPer Johanns. The DSCC has been trying to convince Fahey to jump in.. but it appears they are not likely to get their wish.

Fahey told the Journal Star yesterday that he would think about the bid some more since he is being pressured to do so, but "it's unlikely I'll change my mind. I love my job here. I have an extremely full plate. And I've told everyone that, including those in Washington." Nebraska has dropped from 4th to 13th in my latest Senate rankings, and it is likely to go down even more once Fahey pulls the plug.

• Illinois deadline has passed

While all this recruitment maneuvers are taking place, the filing deadline has already passed in Illinois, meaning that we now have a better idea of how things look in the state that has 3 open seats! And for one, this confirms that Senator Durbin is one of the safest incumbents next year, as Republicans really did not get anywhere (it is rather surprising that they have virtually no one considering that some were takling up this race a few months ago). In IL-11, the most competitive of the three open seats, Democrats have a top-tier candidate, Debbie Halvorson, the State Senate Majority Leader, but Republicans did not get their top choices in the race. Two candidates will fight it out for the GOP, the New Lenox Mayor and an ex-Bush White House official. The GOP will not admit this certainly, but their failure to get a top-tier candidate might make IL-11 one of the best pick-up opportunities for Dems.