Morning polls: Is there any state that does not look tight in the general election?

• Pennsylvania and Connecticut tight
  

The latest Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania has the race considerably tightening in the past month, as Giuliani essentially too close to call:

• Giuliani trails Clinton 45% to 43% and Edwards 43% to 42%. But he comfortably leads Obama 45% to 39%.
• Quinnipiac only tested Clinton versus the other candidates: She is barely ahead of McCain 45% to 43%, bu demolishes Thompson 50% to 36% and Romney 51% to 36%.

Needless to say, Democrats absolutely need to win Pennsylvania to win the presidency next year. They barely won it the past two presidential cycles, and it is the tightest of their must-win states. But more surprising is Quinnipiac's new Connecticut poll that has things all tied up if Rudy Giuliani is the GOP nominee:

• Clinton barely comes ahead of Giuliani 45% to 44%. Obama and Giuliani are tied at 43% while Edwards laggs behind 46% to 41%.
• Clinton leads more comfortably against the other candidates: 47-41 against McCain, 53-31 against Thompson, 51-34 against Romney.

Connecticut is one of the states the Giuliani campaign is most confident it can put in play come 2008. While polls have shown that he would have no impact on New York and a disputable one in New Jersey, Connecticut would definitely be too close to call.

• New national polls

A quick review of the flurry of national primary polls out in the past two days suggests that there is no real concensus as to whether and how much Clinton has slipped in the past week. Rasmussen has her below 40% in his daily poll for the first time in a long time, while NBC has her leading 47% to 25%, and AP has it at 45% to 22% for Obama. Big leads both of them, but Clinton is no longer breaking 50%.

NBC also has general election numbers:

• A generic Democrat beats a generic Republican 50% to 35%, but the actual numbers are much closer.
• Clinton only edges out Rudy 46% to 45%. Edwards beats him 45% to 44% and Obama 44% to 42%. Clinton led 49% to 42% in the last NBC poll in September...
• Things look better for Dems against other candidates: Clinton leads Romney 50% to 39%, while Obama beats him 48% to 36%. Clinton has a small 47% to 43% lead against McCain, and a 51-37 lead against Thompson.