Tuesday polls: Add Texas to the list of states that are swingier than expected
Rasmussen released a few state polls today underscoring how different the 2008 electoral landscape is from what we have grown used to in 2004 and 2000. Many states that were hardly competitive in previous cycles now appear prime battlegrounds, and next year's presidential election could be much more national than the previous ones.
Texas has grown increasingly more red in past cycles, and the GOP likes to believe that Clinton is the last person who would have a chance to reverse that trend. A new Rasmussen poll, however, has things closer than expected. Rudy Giuliani handily beats Hillary 50% to 39%, just as John McCain. But remember George W. Bush won Texas 61% to 38% in 2004. It was his home state, yes but that was very much in line with every other Texan trend of the past decade. Furthermore, Hillary keeps Thompson under 50%, trailing 47% to 41%, and even leads Romney 43% to 42%!
One state that is not getting more competitive at all, however, is California. Clinton crushes all her opponents -- the closest is Rudy Giuliani, who still trails 50% to 36%. Clinton leads McCain 51% to 34%, and Thompson 53% to 34%. If these numbers hold into next year, it will be virtually impossible for the GOP to win the popular vote.
There is a big but, however, as the California GOP is reviving the initiative plan to divide the state's electoral votes proportionally which would tremendously hurt the Democratic nominee. A SUSA poll released yesterday found early support for the principle behind the proposal... CA voters are still likely to reject it if it comes to a vote once they are informed of the circumstances, but it would cost Democrats lots of energy, stress and money.
Finally, a new poll from Minnesota has the state more competitive than we've seen it in the past few months, and back where it was in 2000 and 2004: a very close state that could go either way. Rasmussen shows Clinton leading all opponents but within single digits. She has a 44-41 edge against Rudy, 47-43 against Thompson, and 47-40 against Romney.
Rasmussen also threw in a Senate poll from the state, which means that this underpolled race suddenly has two surveys in two days. And the most recent numbers are very much in line with what we have seen before: Senator Coleman is vulnerable and under 50%, though Democrats will have to fight for it. Coleman leads Al Franken 49% to 42% and Mike Ciresi 46% to 43%. Complicating matters for Democrats, Coleman has a good favorability rating at 56% (much higher than the Democrats' which stand at 42% and 43%), which goes to show that Coleman's trouble goes from his party affiliation more than personal problems.
Texas has grown increasingly more red in past cycles, and the GOP likes to believe that Clinton is the last person who would have a chance to reverse that trend. A new Rasmussen poll, however, has things closer than expected. Rudy Giuliani handily beats Hillary 50% to 39%, just as John McCain. But remember George W. Bush won Texas 61% to 38% in 2004. It was his home state, yes but that was very much in line with every other Texan trend of the past decade. Furthermore, Hillary keeps Thompson under 50%, trailing 47% to 41%, and even leads Romney 43% to 42%!
One state that is not getting more competitive at all, however, is California. Clinton crushes all her opponents -- the closest is Rudy Giuliani, who still trails 50% to 36%. Clinton leads McCain 51% to 34%, and Thompson 53% to 34%. If these numbers hold into next year, it will be virtually impossible for the GOP to win the popular vote.
There is a big but, however, as the California GOP is reviving the initiative plan to divide the state's electoral votes proportionally which would tremendously hurt the Democratic nominee. A SUSA poll released yesterday found early support for the principle behind the proposal... CA voters are still likely to reject it if it comes to a vote once they are informed of the circumstances, but it would cost Democrats lots of energy, stress and money.
Finally, a new poll from Minnesota has the state more competitive than we've seen it in the past few months, and back where it was in 2000 and 2004: a very close state that could go either way. Rasmussen shows Clinton leading all opponents but within single digits. She has a 44-41 edge against Rudy, 47-43 against Thompson, and 47-40 against Romney.
Rasmussen also threw in a Senate poll from the state, which means that this underpolled race suddenly has two surveys in two days. And the most recent numbers are very much in line with what we have seen before: Senator Coleman is vulnerable and under 50%, though Democrats will have to fight for it. Coleman leads Al Franken 49% to 42% and Mike Ciresi 46% to 43%. Complicating matters for Democrats, Coleman has a good favorability rating at 56% (much higher than the Democrats' which stand at 42% and 43%), which goes to show that Coleman's trouble goes from his party affiliation more than personal problems.
posted by Taniel at
5:40 PM
1 Comments:
The article is misleading when it says that if these numbers hold true through next year it will be virtually impossible for a GOP candidate to win the majority vote in the general election. This is because the Dem's have basically decided that HRC is going to be their candidate, while the GOP'ers are still up in the air right now. My contention is that once the GOP'ers fall behind a candidate they will garner the support necessary to beat HRC. Hillary is great because she is a catalyst against apathy for the GOP'ers to get out and vote in record numbers.
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Anonymous, At
07 November, 2007 17:04
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