Iowa update: New poll that has it tight, and the state of the Edwards campaign

Zogby just released a new poll of the Democratic caucuses in Iowa, and the race is as tight as it could possibly be. Clinton leads Obama 28% to 25%, with Edwards close behind at 21%. Richardson is at 9%.

21% is Edwards's lowest tally in the five Iowa polls Zogby released all year. In the first survey back in January, he got 27%, ahead of Hillary's 16% and Obama's 17%. Things have changed significantly since then. But the most noticeable number in this latest poll is Obama's 25%, his highest of the year. The caucuses are more than ever a three-way race, which is great news for Clinton's opponents. A flurry of polls from the state in mid-October were showing a solidifying Clinton leads. Recent surveys from early states have shown Clinton's support noticeably down, and you can now add Iowa to to the mix -- There truly is more intrigue than ever in the Democratic race.

Zogby also had the great idea of testing voters' second choices. As it is likely that Democrats who are looking to caucus for small candidates will be unable to do so (if their candidate does not reach 15% in that caucus place), it is crucial to know what is the back-up plan of Richardson and Biden supporters. Zogby shows that Edwards stands to benefit most, as the race tightens even more. In a three-way race, Hillary's 30% is barely ahead of Obama's 29% and Edwards's 27%. One piece of good news for Hillary in the poll is that her supporters are stronger, as only 39% of them say they might change their mind, significantly less than the 50% of Obama's and 51% of Edwards's.

And in a final note on Iowa news, make sure to read my latest piece in the Huffington Post's Off the Bus about the state of the Edwards campaign in Iowa:

For Democratic candidates, all roads lead to Iowa. But no one has more riding on the January 3 caucus than John Edwards. Anything less than a clear win and the former Senator and Vice-Presidential candidate will likely have no choice but to immediately surrender his candidacy.

Coming off his stunning last-minute surge in the 2004 Iowa caucus, Edwards has made the Hawkeye State the seemingly exclusive focus of his campaign and started off this cycle as the clear favorite to take the state.

But a steady decline throughout the past few months has put his strategy in doubt. Engaged to Edwards since 2004, Iowa Democrats have started dating around. While his campaign is confident that when all is said and done, the most committed caucus-goers will remain faithful to John Edwards, there's little question that he might be watching his political fortunes get blown across the prairie.

Edwards benefited early from the flurry of polls showing him leading or tied in Iowa but is now struggling to remain relevant in the face of the media's pointed interest in a showdown between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. A poll taken in March by American Research Group had Clinton and Edwards dueling it out 34 to 33 percent, with Obama far behind at 16%.

Yet Edwards has weakened in the state since then. By July, ARG showed Edwards dropping down to 21 percent, before hitting an all-time low of 15 percent in its most recent polling installment released at the end of October. This latest ARG poll has Edwards running third, behind Clinton's 32 percent and Obama's 22 percent.

Interviews conducted this weekend with county chairs, student leaders and campaign organizers - from the capital in Des Moines to the rural South to the union town of Dubuque - paint a picture of an Edwards campaign hoping that its superior organization will carry it through the finish line. But the buzz on the ground suggests that voters are troubled by recent stories about Edwards, and how much of an opening he has left remains in doubt.

Tom Henderson, chair of the Des Moines-based Polk County Democratic Party, readily acknowledged that Edwards' support has declined in recent months. "The momentum is flipping away from him and is primarily going towards Clinton and Obama," he said. "He can regain traction by the caucuses, but that is not the direction it is going in right now."

Jennifer Lunsford, the chair of the predominantly rural Jefferson County Party and a member of the State Central Committee switched from Edwards is now backing Chris Dodd. She confirms that Edwards' supporters are straying as they are getting to know other candidates. "My sense is that Edwards' supporters are not as sure a thing as they were a year ago," she said.

Read the rest here.