After wild day, R & B committee seats Florida and Michigan... kind of

Who could have predicted that obscure intra-party rules would lead to such an entertaining political spectacle and cause such over-the-top protests and audience hissing? It took the DNC's Rules & Bylaws Committee more than 9 hours to go through the dispute over Florida and Michigan before they voted to seat the entire delegations from both states, giving every delegate half-a-vote. As a result, Clinton nets 24 pledged delegates and the DNC hopes to have finally turned the page, but today's decisions (particularly that regarding Michigan) is undoubtedly a blow to the Clinton campaign .

Early in the meeting, it became obvious that the committee was ready to embrace a compromise on the issue of Florida and cut the delegation's power in half. Despite some tense back-and-forth, in particular when Rep. Wexler took the stand on behalf of Obama and Sen. Nelson on behalf of Clinton, the main issue appeared to be whether the delegation would be split in half before the allocation or whether all delegates would be seated and then granted half-a-vote.

This might seem a trivial dispute but the margin of delegate between the two candidates would be drastically different in the two cases, +19 for Clinton if the latter and +6 if the former. [This is due to the way in which delegates are allocated by district, something we have had ample opportunity to puzzle over in the past few months. For instance, in one of the 4 delegates districts in which Clinton netted 3 delegates and Obama 1, the post-punishment allocation would be 1.5-0.5 if every delegate is given half-a-vote. But if the split occurs as if the votes were not yet known, this district would only have 2 delegates and the two candidates would get one each.

The Obama campaign, being quasi-assured of the nomination, could afford to be generous. After all, its main preoccupation at this point is to avoid party disunity to move on to the general election. Through Wexler, it indicated that it would not oppose the model that would give Clinton a net margin of 19 delegates out of Florida, calling the move a "concession." Harold Ickles was irked by the use of that word.

Naturally, the more complex question concerned Michigan's delegation since only Clinton's name appeared on the ballot and questions lingered as to whether it is appropriate to pretend that the 40% obtained by "uncommitted" was a vote for Obama. The discussion was tense and no consensus emerged, as the Obama campaign insisted that the delegation ought to be split equally between the two candidates and the Clinton campaign insisted that the full delegation ought to be seated without transferring uncommitted over to Obama. In his impassioned defense of Michigan, Senator Levin endorsed the proposal to allocate the delegation 69-59, mid-way between the January 15th vote and a tie (this compromise has been circulating for a while but not that it has no basis in the rules).

After a long lunch period which extended in private conversations between the committee members, two motions were put on the table and approved by the committee. The first, approved 27-0, sits Florida's full delegation and gives each member (including superdelegates) half-a-vote. That gives Clinton a net gain of 19 out of Florida: 52.5 to 33.5 (it also gives 6.5 delegates to Edwards).

Then, the committee somewhat surprisingly approved a motion regarding Michigan, sitting a delegation made up of 69 Clinton delegates and 59 Obama delegates, each with half a vote. This gives Clinton a net gain of 5 delegates out of Michigan. The new magic number to reach a majority: 2,117 delegates.

The crowd was mostly subdued in the morning, occasionally applauding. But the Clinton supporters were very noisy in the evening session, as they booed and hissed the motions that did not grant the Clinton camp its full wish in either state. Even Clinton supporter Alice Hauffman was heckled for supporting the Florida motion. But it is during Michigan's debate that the room became most chaotic, as the crowd was chanting "Denver, Denver, Denver!" implying that Hillary should go all the way to the convention to make her case.

On the floor, Clinton adviser and RBC member Harold Ickes was protesting, "I rise in opposition. I find it inexplicable that this body that is supposedly devoted to rules is going to fly in the face of other than for our affirmative action rules the single most fundamental rule in the delegate selection process, that is, fair reflection." He later added, "Mrs. Clinton has reserved her right to take this to the credentials committee." And in a strong statement, he declared that, "Hijacking 4 delegates is not a good way to start down the path of party unity."

The day succeeded in resolving much of the issues on the table with the Florida and Michigan delegations, as it is now likely that most Democratic Party figures (including many high profile Clinton supporters like RBC member Dan Fowler) will consider this issue resolved. This means that the Obama campaign crossing the magic majority number (most everyone believe this will happen sometime next week) will be treated with more legitimacy than if the Michigan and Florida questions were still on the table.

But the Clinton campaign has laid the grounds to argue that they ought to continue their fight to the convention. First, there is the popular vote question as they will now argue that this decision legitimizes using the totals in FL and MI to calculate the popular vote results. The Obama campaign will then insist that the uncommitted votes be counted for Obama in Michigan, which would put their campaign ahead -- though Clinton is hoping to reverse that if she gets a big win in Puerto Rico tomorrow.

Second, the Clinton campaign has not accepted the legitimacy of today's resolution. Ickes's complaints at the end of the meeting were meant to protest the allocation of the Michigan delegation. For the Clinton campaign, it is a travesty that the uncommitted delegates be granted to Obama when he willfully took his name off the ballot and that Clinton delegates be taken away on top of that. Somewhat surprisingly, the Clinton campaign seems to have renounced its objections to the delegations being given only half-a-vote as the vote on Florida's motion was unanimous and as the Clinton campaign's statement tonight declares victory on the Florida front -- choosing to continue the battle only over Michigan:

The decision by the Rules and Bylaws Committee honors the votes that were cast by the people of Florida and allocates the delegates accordingly.

We strongly object to the Committee’s decision to undercut its own rules in seating Michigan’s delegates without reflecting the votes of the people of Michigan.

The Committee awarded to Senator Obama not only the delegates won by Uncommitted, but four of the delegates won by Senator Clinton. This decision violates the bedrock principles of our democracy and our Party.

We reserve the right to challenge this decision before the Credentials Committee and appeal for a fair allocation of Michigan’s delegates that actually reflect the votes as they were cast.

If the Clinton campaign intends to somehow stay in the game past next week and if the superdelegate tsunami does not overwhelm them, its new fight will be a quest to get the credentials committee to change the Michigan allocation (and apparently not to sit the full delegations in FL and MI?). But considering the way in which Dan Fowler distanced himself from Ickes today and considering that undeclared supers like Donna Brazile are barely containing their allegiance at this point, this would certainly be a very lonely fight for Clinton. As far as even some of her high profile supporters are concerned, the Democratic primary will be over next week.

Perhaps the most stunning spectacle today occurred outside of the meeting hall, as protesters were gathered on the street to register their complaints about the way the Michigan and Florida delegations were being treated. TNR's Eve Fairbanks summarizes the scene of what she describes as an alternative dimension, in which one could see signs like "At least slaves were counted as 3/5ths a Citizen" and in which Larry Sinclair was welcomed as a hero for distributing tracts about Obama's drug use and gay sex escapades... Inside the meeting, some cries of McCain were heard from the audience at the end of the meeting.

Yet, despite the signs of lingering hard feelings, the DNC took a big step towards turning the page of the delegate dispute and settling the Democratic nomination. Unless Clinton somehow manages to prevent Obama from surpassing 2,117 delegates by next week, it is difficult to see her staying in the race. By mostly removing Florida and Michigan from the realm of the contestable, the RBC meeting took a big step towards launching the general election.

Rules and Bylaws Committee: One more attempt to resolve FL and MI

On May 31st, the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee meets to address challenges to its treatment of Florida and Michigan's delegations and discuss possible resolutions. Such questions will soon be referred to the convention's credential committee, and it was widely expected that the DNC would simply refer any decision to that not-yet-operational committee. Instead, the RBC accepted to listen to Florida and Michigan's petitions. On Saturday morning, the RBC will listen both the state parties and those who brought the challenge forward (Senator Levin, who has long fought the primary calendar, will speak on Michigan's behalf); the two campaigns will also present their demands and their positions.

The two questions that need to be addressed are: First, should Florida and Michigan superdelegates be seated independently of what is decided about the pledged delegation? Second, what shall be done with the pledged delegates and how much weight should be given to the January 15th and January 29th votes?

The Clinton campaign has a lot riding on this meeting. Not only do they need to score a big net gain of delegates to keep the race close enough that they survive the first week of June but they want to legitimize their efforts to count Florida and Michigan in the popular vote. The campaign insists they are ahead in the popular vote counting the FL and MI results, and it will be more difficult for the Obama campaign to retort that totals from these two states should not be counted if they agree to allocate some delegates based on their results at the RBC.

Both candidates have their supporters on the committee which makes it virtually impossible that Clinton would get her full wish: That both delegations be fully seated, be given full voting rights and that they be allocated according to the January votes. The Obama campaign -- whose position right now is to split the delegations equally -- has signaled its willingness to meet "halfway," which could mean granting Hillary half of the pledged delegate leads she earned in January. Today, Clinton's options were reduced further and Obama's position was strengthened when the Democratic Party's lawyers issued a legal memo explaining the DNC could not fully seat the delegations and that it had to settle for reducing its voting rights by half -- which is roughly the punishment the RNC imposed on Florida and Michigan, though that did not prevent McCain from sealing his nomination in the Sunshine state.

Note that even if Clinton did get her full wish granted it would leave her far from her rival, and far from the nomination. That is why I wrote that Clinton is trying to keep it close enough to survive the first week of June rather than overtake Obama's lead. If she had gotten the DNC to recognize some delegations back in January or February, she would have kept closer contact with Obama and might not have spent the next 4 months on the defensive, having to justify why she is staying in and defend her turf. That obviously did not happen, and Clinton is now simply trying to prolong the game.

Obama is very close to 2,026 right now and they are looking to secure enough superdelegates in the days following June 3rd to surpass that number. Having hundreds of new delegates thrown in the game as well as more uncommitted superdelegates will raise the number needed to secure the nomination, giving Clinton hope of keeping the nomination fight alone past the endorsement wave that will likely follow June 3rd and strengthening her VP claims.

In the midst of this showdown between the Obama and Clinton machines, it is important to remember that the DNC has a very different set of concerns: How to balance the need to represent Michigan and Florida at the convention with the fact that they broke the rules? The Democratic world is worried that, if Florida and Michigan's delegations are recognized, there will be no way to keep any order in the primary calendar and no incentive for states to recognize the rules. Even an RNC-style half-punishment could no be enough, given how important FL and MI were in the GOP nomination fight.

Update: Florida Democrats were hoping to force the DNC to seat their delegates by going through the courts, but a Florida judge just tossed out the lawsuit saying that parties have the right to make their own rules.

Clinton tries to revive Florida and Michigan debate

To counter the superdelegate flight and convince those who are uncommitted that she is fighting a worthy cause, the Clinton campaign is doing its best to revive the question of Florida and Michigan's delegates. Indeed, despite the fact that the DNC has shown some unexpected signs that it is willing to be more lenient than it has been up to now, there is still no resolution to the "rogue state" problem.

It became evident a few weeks ago that neither state would hold a re-vote, in what was a huge blow to Clinton's hopes of building momentum meaningful enough to change the dynamics of the race. Since then, Florida and Michigan have mostly disappeared from the national conversation, to the great chagrin of the Clintonites who believe this is one of their most powerful argument to question the legitimacy of Obama's lead when appealing to superdelegates.

Today, Maggie Williams, Clinton's campaign manager, sent an email to Hillary's online list; she emphasized Clinton's determination to allow every voter to cast a ballot, a principle that can apply to the 10 upcoming primaries (to fight pressures to drop out) as well as to Florida and Michigan's delegates:

Please take the time to listen, as I have, to the voices of our fellow citizens in Michigan and Florida... Tens of thousands of people in Michigan, Florida, and all over the country are standing up and speaking out, urging that we live up to our democratic ideals. In our hearts we know that voters everywhere deserve the chance to make their voices heard.

I know you will join with Americans everywhere who are proudly standing with their fellow citizens in making sure the great states of Michigan and Florida have a voice in this race -- along with all the states who will cast their ballots in the upcoming months. Today is the day to step forward for democracy.

Nowhere in the email does Williams propose a solution to the FL and MI mess, however. She does not state the campaign's demands for how delegates should be counted and which should be seated. This reflects this issue's latest reality: Revotes are simply not going to happen due to time constraints, the Obama campaign will never agree to sit the delegations based on the January 15th and January 29th results if the race remains at all competitive and it is tremendously unlikely that Clinton would have control of the credentials committee.

There are a few possible solutions that the state parties are working on that could result in a few delegates gain for Clinton but her campaign knows there is very little it can practically gain from this -- and certainly no momentum or electoral argument. But pursuing the argument over Florida and Michigan is crucial to present Clinton's case as legitimate and to give Hillary a chance to appeal to superdelegates using the popular vote measure.

New Jersey's Governor Corzine, a fierce Clinton supporter, stunned the political world last week by announcing he might vote for Obama at the convention if the Illinois Senator wins the popular vote. But this statement, which was widely described as the first step towards betraying Hillary, seemed to be a very shrewd move on behalf of the Clinton campaign. If Clinton manages to stay in until June 3rd, there will be surely be at least one way of calculating the popular vote (include both FL and MI, exclude caucuses because exact votes) that will result in showing Hillary ahead; if Clinton does not flame out in the upcoming contest you can be sure that it she will find a way to spin the popular vote argument. And that's exactly what Corzine implied when he was asked this week-end whether his earlier comment should be interpreted as a slap to Clinton. Corzine's answer brought up... Florida and Michigan and the need to include them in the tally.

What the campaign wants now, therefore, is to move the goalposts and convince superdelegates that the popular vote measure is more important than the pledge delegate leader. Now, superdelegates will see that Corzine is being reported as taking the logic far enough to consider voting for Obama, and the Clinton campaign hopes that small moves like this will make its attempt at moving the goalposts more convincing than they have been for now.

What can be done about Michigan and Florida?

Confusion continues to surround the do-over primaries. Today, Michigan followed Florida's lead in nixing the possibility of a revote after the state Senate adjourned without taking up a bill setting up this primary. The House now enters spring recess and reconvenes only in two weeks. That will be too late for the legislature to agree to a revote plan, because the state would then not have enough time to organize a whole new election by June 3rd.

There were many issues in Michigan's plan, first and foremost whether Democrats who had participated in the GOP primary on January 15th (thinking that the Democratic contest did not matter) would be allowed to vote on June 3rd. The Obama campaign zoned in on this problem, especially since the financial question was getting resolved by Governor Corzine and Governor Rendell's pledge to fund a new primary.

The Clinton campaign has already started to try and pit the blame of this failure on Obama, hoping to get the moral high ground on this issue to boost its chances of getting a somewhat favorable resolution. Obama knows that he can only go so far in opposing efforts to seat Michigan and Florida's delegates without endangering his own position in those states in the general election.

Now, the question is what will be done about Michigan and Florida: Will any solution (besides a revote) be found to include these states in the nomination process? A possible deal was circulating last week that would cut Florida's delegation in half and seat them according to January 29th, and would just split the Michigan delegation 50-50 (which isn't really including that state in the process). Today, two Florida state Senators are proposing the following deal for their state's delegation:

• Half of the delegation will be allocated according to the January 29th results, which would result in a net gain of 19 delegates for Clinton.
• The other half of the delegation would be determined by whatever method the two campaigns can agree on, including (via Ambinder), "an even split, a split reflecting the national popular vote, a split reflecting the national earned delegate count."

But here it is very important to remember that a solution cannot just be agreed upon by the Clinton and Obama campaigns and then applied at the convention. The DNC has excluded Florida and Michigan's delegates, and only the DNC can reverse itself and seat the delegates. More precisely, any such decision is in the hands of the credentials committee which won't meet until July... so any decision to seat at least a part of the FL and MI delegates based on January voting or based on national splits would have to wait July.

And don't expect DNC members to just accept whatever compromise is presented to them, even if both campaigns agree on it. The Boston Globe asked James Roosevelt, the powerful co-chairman of the Rules and Bylaws Committee whether FL and MI delegates could be seated without a new vote being held, to which Roosevelt responded: "As long as it could affect the outcome, [there's] no chance of that." Roosevelt, who is neutral in the nomination fight, presented this as a matter of elementary fairness and respect for rules. "If there is simply a caving on this, we'll end up with primaries on Halloween." And clearly no one wants that.

Another decision the DNC will have to take (and it might resolve this issue much earlier than July) is whether superdelegates from Florida and Michigan can vote at the convention. Right now, all the delegates of both states (including supers) have been thrown out of the Denver plans, but it is unclear whether the DNC's Rules committee has the authority to take away a superdelegates' right to vote on the nominee or whether the Democratic Party's status guarantees that right. Clinton has an advantage among Florida superdelegates, so reestablishing their participation could at least provide her with some boost.

The risk of not holding re-votes in Michigan and Florida

Two days after Florida nixed its plans to hold a do-over primary, Michigan appears close to doing the same, as even some of the state's Clinton supporters are admitting. It appeared just a few days ago that a June 3rd contest was probable, but there have been too many objections raised since then -- whether the vote can be organized, whether people who have voted in January 15th GOP primary [that saw a third of cross-over Democrats] could vote on June 3rd, who would pay -- for the Michigan legislature to have much hope of resolving them by their recess on Friday.

Obama never explicitly rejected the primary but most of these objections were raised by his campaign and by its Michigan co-manager Hunter; seeking to delay the decision and keep up a crowd of uncertainty, Obama appears close to his goal to avoid potentially dangerous revotes in the beginning of June. With Clinton on the upswing in Pennsylvania and hoping to ride momentum throughout May, it would have been very difficult for Obama to convince superdelegates if he had lost a string of contests including the final two in Florida and Michigan.

Now, Clinton is trying to force the hand of both the Michigan legislature and of the Obama campaign by ... holding today's first meeting in Detroit! This is meant to simultaneously pressure the Michigan legislature into taking action and to force the Obama campaign to openly oppose a revote plan rather than retreat in the objection-raising position they are in now. For remember that, whether or not we think that the FL and MI votes were unfair and should not count at the convention, Clinton had nothing to do with pushing those votes forward and she is justifiably frustrated that two states in which the demographics favor her will have no role to play in the nomination process.

If the Michigan revote is indeed nixed, the question will be whether any plan can be agreed to that would still allow for some delegates to be seated. There was a plan circulating last week that would seat Michigan 50-50 and Florida based on the January vote but giving delegates only half a vote -- though this does not give Michigan any voice in the process. And Barack Obama better find a way to make Florida and Michigan count in some way, for the more-than-ever probable nominee could pay dearly come the general election if the two states' Democrats are left angry by the process.

A new poll shows that a plurality of Florida Democrats want the January 29th to count and, more importantly, a full quarter of respondents (and these are Democrats) said they would be less likely to support the Democratic nominee in the fall if the Sunshine State is not included in the nomination process. And whether there is a direct linkage or not, PPP's new general election survey of Florida looks quite terrible for Democrats and the confusion in which the state's party is in right now can't be improving things:

• McCain leads Hillary Clinton 47% to 44% but he crushes Obama 50% to 39%.

The difference is due to Obama significantly underperforming among his party's base: He trails by 9% among women (Clinton leads by 8%), and he only gets 60% of Democrats (Clinton gets 74%), the latter number a truly weak number. And those Democrats are saying they are McCain supporters (25% in a match-up against Obama) rather than going in the undecided camp. Among Hispanics, Clinton is tied with McCain at 47% while Obama trails by 11%. Clinton has her own problems as 51% of African-American are supporting her, though the rest is pronouncing itself "undecided" (35%) rather than McCain (13%).

In blow to Clinton, there will be no Florida revote

For once, Florida chaos did not drag on endlessly as the state's Democratic Party put a surprising end to the re-vote saga by deciding to hold no do-over primary. The party chair Karen Thurman released a statement announcing this unexpected move, and here are some excerpts:

We spent the weekend reviewing your messages, and while your reasons vary widely, the consensus is clear: Florida doesn't want to vote again.

So we won't...

This doesn't mean that Democrats are giving up on Florida voters. It means that a solution will have to come from the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, which is scheduled to meet again in April.

Thurman is transferring the pressure to find a resolution to the crisis to the DNC. This means that the state party is still determined to push to gets its delegates seated even without a new vote. We already know that this Committee will decide nothing in April and that the matter will be postponed to the summer. But we can already say that the Florida delegates cannot be seated if the Obama campaign does not want them to be, and if Clinton unexpectedly has the votes to impose her will, it probably means she has the votes to win the nomination.

This is thus first and foremost a crushing blow to Hillary's chances. (1) To catch up with Obama and his impressive delegate lead, she needs as large a reservoir of uncommitted delegates as possible, and there simply is not enough in the upcoming states to allow her to significantly cut into his lead -- which is why she was hoping that Florida and Michigan would be added to the mix. (2) This also takes away Clinton's hope of building momentum into the summer. Without Florida (and perhaps without Michigan), whatever momentum she rides will come out of April 22nd and May 6th, with a series of smaller states in the subsequent weeks. Not the most ideal calendar to get your groove back. (3) Perhaps most importantly, this makes it very difficult for Clinton to win the popular vote -- which she was hoping to be able to do if she won Pennsylvania on April 22nd and re-votes in Michigan and Florida. This would have allowed her to make a much stronger appeal to superdelegates.

Given the demographics of Florida and Michigan, Clinton would have been favored in both no matter when they had voted. Thus, this nomination fight in 48 states is automatically more favorable to Obama than a nomination fight in all 50 states -- though this ended being a factor that neither candidate had any control over (contrary to what many people seem to believe at this point, Clinton was not trying to sabotage herself and push Florida forward).

Imagine how much more favorable the situation would have looked for Clinton on the morning of February 6th if Florida had voted for Clinton on Super Tuesday rather than on January 29th. She would perhaps not have won by as much, but as long as the two candidates electoral coalitions had behaved with the remarkable stability they have displayed in almost every state, she would have emerged victorious -- coupled with victories in the day's other biggest states.

Democrats -- and Obama who is as likely as ever to be the party's nominee -- must realize that they are shooting themselves in the foot with the MI + FL mess. If Florida's delegates are not seated, the GOP will make it a major issue in the fall. Governor Crist will say that he offered to assist in finding a compromise, and John McCain will point out that Democrats have left the Sunshine State out of their process, thereby putting the Democratic Party in the defensive. Obama cannot afford that in a state that has been trending away from Democrats since the 2000 recount.

One solution that will be advocated now is a 50-50 split in the state's delegates. Clinton will naturally oppose this given that this will get her absolutely nowhere in her fight to catch up with her rival. And frankly will such a resolution make it look like the will of Florida voters was taken into account? If Obama is confident that he has the delegates to win the nomination by the time the last states are voting (a still-plausible scenario), he should consider accepting Florida's requests to seat the state's delegates based on the January 29th vote -- or at least seat them with a half-vote each. Given his current lead, even this solution would not change that much to the fundamentals of the race.

Michigan and Florida do-overs still up in the air

It was first Florida that appeared close to a deal to organize a repeat primary via mail-in, before the realization that that procedure was too hard to implement in such a short amount of time sank that scenario. Next, Michigan looked set over a June 3rd state-run primary that would not be paid by the state -- but the situation is more stuck than ever 3 days after that deal was crafted.

The Michigan legislature, which has to approve any such plan, is convening and could take up a bill putting in place this do-over primary as early as tomorrow. But the legislature's leadership is saying that they will not pass any plan unless both the Obama and Clinton campaigns explicitly agree to it first, and this is precisely what the Obama campaign is not doing. For a while it looked like Obama would not openly sabotage do-overs, aware of how that might play in crucial swing states like FL and MI. But his Michigan campaign co-manager, State Sen. Tupac Hunter, is now seeking to delay any plan being implemented by opposing its finances. He does not want to see a bill passed...

...with a promise from governors who are Clinton supporters that they'll raise the money at some point and meanwhile Michigan taxpayers have to put the money out first. The money has to be in the treasury first. That's just fiscally prudent.

Hunter -- and by extension the Obama campaign -- must know that there is no time to raise the $10 million necessary for the Michigan primary to be implemented by the time this bill would have to pass. State officials told the press last week that the ball had to start rolling by Friday for the state to have time to prepare for a primary. In other words, the Michigan do-over is very much in danger at the moment... Not to say anything of the as-muddled Florida situation.

If anything, last week's Wright controversy might have signaled to Obama that they had to push for as quick an end to primary season as possible. Not that Clinton has anything to do with that scandal (many people accuse her of throwing the kitchen sink but it is noteworthy that she always stayed clear of some of what could have been the most damaging to her rival), but the GOP has started to organize its onslaught against Obama who must organize his response and defense. Seeing major primaries in some of the country's biggest states in early June would not allow Obama to concentrate on McCain any time soon... though blocking the way towards do-overs could hurt him in the general election in those two crucial states. Quite a dilemma.

Complicating matters in Florida is a federal Atlanta appeals court that agreed to hear a case brought forward by a Tampa resident and former Edwards supporter; the case seeks to force the DNC to seat all of Florida's delegates. It is unlikely that the court will agree to do so, but the fact that it has agreed to hear the case should worry the supporters of the DNC's (and Obama's) position.

Confusion spreads around Florida and Michigan

The more Democrats are seeking to find a solution to allowing Florida and Michigan, the more confusing the situation is starting to look. And just as a consensus was forming about a mail-in re-vote, new developments have made that option now very unlikely -- and with it the possibility of any do-over!

The state of Florida intervened today, with state officials saying that there is no governmental authority that can verify signatures and the identity of voters in a primary election conducted over mail.

Particularly frustrating to proponents of a do-over is that this was revealed just hours after the state Democratic Party released a draft of a new voting plan that went as far as to propose a date (June 3rd) for this election. But with no mechanism to verify signatures and thus to prevent voter fraud, all of the actors in this controversy intervened to signal the probable death of the mail-in scenario, leaving Florida with no back-up option for now. And this scenario already had many critics before this, including all of Florida's House representatives.

Unwilling to help FL and MI find a solution, the DNC better recognize that they have to find a way to seat Florida and Michigan's delegate or risk a backlash in the polls in November... to McCain's benefit. Most polls are showing McCain leading or very competitive in Michigan, to say nothing of Florida, and the Florida Democratic Party cited a poll today that said that more that a significant number of Democratic voters in the state would not stand by their party in the general election if they don't get their vote for the Democratic nomination counted.

These latest developments are thus in no way a win for Barack Obama. Insofar as the primary is concerned, no re-vote and the January votes not counting is certainly the ideal scenario... but it would be disastrous in the general election. What is the back-up plan, then? There is now talk of a plan that is being discussed that would sit the delegates without a revote:

• Michigan's delegates would be seated... but split 50-50 (78 for each candidate).
• The Florida delegates would be allocated according to the January 29th vote, but they would only have half a vote each... which means that Clinton would derive a 19-delegate (rather than 38) edge.
  
• The superdelegates from both states would also be reinstated, which should be good news for Clinton who has more support, especially in Florida.

The Clinton campaign is said to be ready to agree to such a plan, with Obama having to decide whether he would also agree (no plan would be implemented, it looks like, without the support both campaigns). But it is very puzzling as to why Clinton would be so eager to endorse this and Obama so reluctant this proposal, which is as good a plan as Obama can hope for! Here's why:

First, Clinton only getting 19 delegate more out of Florida and Michigan would be a great result for the Obama campaign, as it is less than the Clinton campaign could hope to get in do-over and (more importantly) much less that what the Clinton campaign needs to get to cut in Obama's pledged delegate margin in any meaningful way.

Second, the Clinton campaign would be deprived of the opportunity to contest two big states in early June and -- in case they win for a second time -- to argue once again that Obama has a problem with large states that Democrats need to win. It is undeniable that if Clinton gets two solid victories in Michigan and Florida at the end of the primary process, they will go into the summer with big momentum and more proof that they own the most important states --- and that would complicate Obama's efforts to secure the nomination, whatever his pledged delegate lead.

But the third concern about this compromise plan should worry Democrats: How can they tell Michigan that they got to have their say in the Democratic primary if the state's delegates are just slit 50-50? If McCain decides to use this issue to blast his opponent in Michigan in the fall, Democrats will have nothing to respond.

Obama campaign puts obstacles on path to revotes

It is a sign of how favored the Obama campaign is that they are now willing to openly throw hurdles to the organization of do-over votes in Florida and Michigan. I wrote this morning that Obama cannot afford to openly sabotage those given the risk to his general election campaign and the opening it could give Clinton to appeal to superdelegates; but I added that, "Obama will certainly not do too much to help the re-dos get organized... and he can't be too unhappy about this latest roadblock."

Now, it looks like Obama might be more active in confusing the situation than I had thought he would be. Tupac Hunter, his Michigan campaign co-chair, was quoted today as saying that "The Obama campaign position, as I stated, is we don’t like the mail-in option." He also insisted that the campaign wants a 50-50 split in delegates from both states. In the Detroit News he explained in more detail why the campaign doesn't like mail-in votes "one bit: "It disenfranchises people who need to participate and there are many questions with regard to security." The same article quotes David Axelrod worrying that there isn't enough time for a mail-in to go well: "We're going to turn this process over to parties within the states to run on with a matter of weeks to prepare."

TPM is now quoting an Obama spokesperson who is backtracking a bit and saying that Hunter does not represent the position of the campaign on this one, and that they will abide by whatever the rules say. And let me note that a mail-in vote does probably pose significant challenges and it will probably see a lesser turnout than a normal primary would. Also, the Clinton campaign would likely prefer a full vote rather than a mail-in given that the demographics vote that would participate in the latter would probably be more favorable to Obama. But Clinton is not the one making this argument, probably realizing that mail-in might be one of the best options she has at this point to open up the pool of delegates of FL and MI, whereas Obama has no qualms about starting to question the legitimacy of the votes and creating more confusion around them.

And another surprising obstacle on the way to re-votes, via Marc Ambinder. The Justice Department might have to approve any new primary plans in Florida and Michigan. Some counties in both states are under DoJ supervision to make sure their voting rules do not disenfranchise minorities. Not only would this require time, but imagine the chaos if some denounce mail-in as unfair because it disenfranchises certain groups and create uneven turnout patterns and if the authority that clears the primary as fair is Bush's Department of Justice that has attracted so many complaints from civil-rights groups over the past few years. Ultimately, Obama would love anything like this that could cast a doubt on the legitimacy of do-overs.

Indecision over re-do votes continues

We're finally there. We have reached the six-week lull!

When I first took a look at the primary calendar on the morning of February 6th, the first thing I noticed was the shocking gap between March 11th and April 22nd. In a primary season with an Election Night pretty much every week -- sometimes even two or three -- how are we going to survive 42 days with no contest?

But survive we must, and as a consolation think that we might soon have two new contests added to the calendar, as the debate over Florida and Michigan re-votes continues. The situation is as confusing as ever. A consensus seemed to be building in favor of a mail-in primary, in which ballots would be mailed to voters across the state who would then have to mail them back. This could also alleviate the money problem, as organizing a mail-in primary would cost less than a regular contest with polling places.

But the Florida Democratic House delegation just undermined whatever thin consensus there was yesterday with a joint statement:

We are committed to working with the DNC, the Florida State Democratic party, our Democratic leaders in Florida, and our two candidates to reach an expedited solution that ensures our 210 delegates are seated. Our House delegation is opposed to a mail-in campaign or any redo of any kind.

The possibility that Florida and Michigan's delegates get seated based on the January votes is getting more unlikely by the day -- so the position of the Florida delegation is too stubborn this late in the game. The DNC is showing no sign that it will entertain more complaints from the "rogue states," and even prominent supporters of the early date (Senators Nelson of FL and Levin of MI) are coming around to supporting a do-over.

What complicates the do-over calculations is the differing interests of the two campaigns: The Obama campaign will not take the risk of opposing a do-over entirely, since its position would seem to self-interested on an issue in which most people agree that if Florida and Michigan agree to change their rules they should be allowed another chance. And if the Obama campaign is seen as actively preventing MI and FL from counting it could be terrible for his chances in the fall in both states, both key swing states.

However, Obama will certainly not do too much to help the re-dos get organized... and he can't be too unhappy about this latest roadblock. On the other hand, the Clinton campaign needs to have a chance at getting some of the Florida and Michigan delegates if it wants to catch up Obama's pledged delegates. There simply aren't enough delegates on the table left for her to have a realistic chance of doing so without the rogue states revoting.

Naturally, Clinton is taking a risk in pushing for revotes. She won both states decisively, and while Obama's name was not on the ballot in Michigan, Clinton did get a majority (55%). If Obama wins either of these states in late May-early June, it could give him a huge boost of momentum and seal his nomination -- and it would make it very difficult for Clinton to argue that she wins all the big states.

On the other hand, two big Clinton wins late in the game (the votes would probably not be counted before June, so perhaps after all other contests) could bolster her case to superdelegates even if she doesn't quite catch up with Obama pledged delegate-wise. Overall, Clinton has much more to gain from the revotes than Obama does for the simple reason that she needs them (she really does) and he does not. And that asymmetry could be enough to prevent revotes.

Friday polls: Diverging margins in Mississippi, and the state of do-over primaries

The Democratic candidates are preparing for two more contests in the next few days -- Wyoming and Mississippi -- on which there has been no public polling. Until today, that is. Two polls were released of the Mississippi primary, which is expected to go heavily for Obama. The share of the African-American population in this primary could be higher than in any other contest's -- but these polls suggest that the higher a state's black population the more whites vote for Clinton. We had witnessed this racial polarization in South Carolina and Georgia, and now here it is in Mississippi:

• ARG shows Obama leading 58% to 34%, a very large margin that hides big disparities: Clinton wins white voters 61% to 22%, while Obama carries African American voters 87% to 11%.


• Insider Advantage -- which has had a very good track record in most states it has polled, and which picked up Clinton's Texas rise first -- shows Obama up only 46% to 40%. Now, IA itself acknowledges that Obama's margin is likely higher because a full 20% of black voters tested in this poll are undecided, putting Obama at 66% -- he will almost certainly be much higher on Tuesday. But IA also shows Clinton winning an astonishing 71.8% of the white vote.


• Another very strange result in which both polls are consistent is that Clinton does better among men than among women, which suggests that Mississippi white men are not willing to back a black candidate...

If this level of racial polarization holds on Tuesday, it would provoke some very strange delegate distribution scenarios, as Clinton and Obama would both be close to being shut out in different parts of the state depending on the racial make-up of different districts.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen came out with two very interesting polls today from Florida and Michigan, testing the two candidates in possible do-overs. The results are very different:

• In Michigan, Clinton and Obama tie at 41%. In January, Clinton had gotten 55% of the vote without any opposition.
• In Florida, Clinton gets 55% to Obama's 39%, which is a healthy lead. On January 29th, Clinton had beaten Obama 50% to 30%.

It goes without saying that Clinton is likely a few points below Obama in a Michigan caucus if she can only tie him in a primary, so that poll is not a good sign for the Clinton campaign. One of their most important arguments is Obama's inability to win the largest states, and an Obama win in Michigan -- particularly after Clinton broke 50% on January 15th -- would make it much more difficult for Clinton to put forward her big state edge.

Another interesting poll this morning -- also from Rasmussen -- tests the South Dakota presidential race:

• McCain beats Clinton 50% to 38%, and beat Obama 48% to 38%.
• Yesterday's SUSA poll of South Dakota had McCain up Obama by 4% and up Clinton by 12% as well.

A very Republican state that Bush won by overwhelming margins, South Dakota is much closer than anyone would expect in both of these polls.While it is very unlikely that either Democrat will end up within single-digits in South Dakota (and if they have a chance of winning here it probably means that they are on their way to routing McCain). But it does coincidence with a lot of evidence that the Mountain states -- usually among the most reliable for Republicans -- are flirting with Democrats this time around. SUSA showed Obama with a narrow lead in North Dakota and taking some electoral votes in Nebraska.

Finally, we have a few polls from congressional races:

• Rasmussen accompanies its presidential poll with a Senate survey (it's actually the other way around), and it confirms that Democratic Senator Johnson has very little to fear next year. He crushes both his (declared and potential) Republican opponents by significant margins and gets 62% and 63%.


• Meanwhile, Michigan pollster EPIC releases a survey from MI-07, where Democrats are confident they can get freshman Rep. Walberg in trouble. The poll shows Walberg leading Democrat Schauer 51% to 40%, but after a biography of both candidates is read the Democratic candidate edges out Walberg 49% to 48%.

Polls with biographies are obviously very shady, since no candidate gets to define himself in a vacuum, and no House candidate can possibly introduce himself to 100% of voters (not even close). The poll does show a baseline vulnerability for Walberg, but he does get above 50% in the first match-up, and that should reassure him a bit. But given the financial advantage the DCCC has over its counterpart this cycle, they are sure to test incumbents like Walberg and unless the RNCC can step in to help he is likely to see his numbers drop in the coming months.

Calendar watch: Michigan and Puerto Rico

With most primary contests already over, it is incredible that we are still talking about the voting calendar and changing rules. In fact, with Florida and Michigan's fate still in suspense, much of the political chatter in the coming weeks will likely be devoted to process questions and to the quest of a fair solution to the "rogue state" problem.

Florida and Michigan's governors were pushing the DNC yesterday to seat the January delegates, but that is looking to be an unlikely scenario and all interested parties appear to slowly be readying themselves with do-over votes. But questions remain: (1) Who will fund? (2) Primary or caucus? The two questions are obviously related, and the DNC is refusing to spend money on re-votes to help state parties that it holds broke rules in full awareness of what they were doing. Howard Dean told Florida Senator Nelson today that he would not pay for any make-over caucus or primary (to be fair, the DNC doesn't have that much money in the bank, and is already trailing the RNC's fundraising).

The New Republican broke the news last night that the Michigan Democratic Party was strongly leaning towards calling new caucuses -- which was the party's original plan before some Democrats pushed for an early primary. This would create a fierce competition and the most important caucuses of the year. It would also raise the number of delegates each campaign has to amass to get the nomination, and offer Clinton a chance to catch up Obama's number.

The Clinton campaign is sure to complain, however, that it is unfair to hold a caucus: The original contest was a primary, and a do-over, they are sure to point out, should be the same type of election. They know that a win would be very difficult in a caucus system (witness the 36% differential in Washington between the caucus and the primary, and it appears that there is also a substantial gap in Texas between the two), and that a large victory -- of the size they would need to cut into Obama's delegate lead -- would be very unlikely.

If anything, a new Michigan caucus could allow Obama the opportunity of a large victory (considering the size of his wins in other caucus states) AND give him his first win in a 100+ delegate state other than Illinois, which right now is the big hole in his resume. So a re-vote would help Obama here?

The second calendar item concerns... Puerto Rico! The contest there could be pivotal since it will award 63 delegates total. Up until yesterday, Puerto Rico had scheduled a caucus on June 7th, and there was speculation that its delegates could be awarded winner-take-all (setting up yet another showdown with the DNC). It goes without saying that 63 delegates suddenly going to one candidate in early June could have dramatically altered the race.

Yesterday, Puerto Rico changed its rules: (1) It will hold a primary, not a caucus, because of the expected high turnout (we saw in Texas and -- to a lesser extent -- in Nevada how chaotic caucuses can be if authorities don't know how to organize them). (2) It will hold its contest on June 1st rather than June 7th -- so the new end-date of the primary season will be June 3rd (Montana and South Dakota).

More importantly, the Washington Post debunks speculation that Puerto Rico's delegates will be awarded winner-take-all and explains that officials are planning on a proportional allocation, much as we have seen everywhere else. So the scenarios many of us were contemplating of a last minute Puerto Rico victory allowing Clinton to catch up 63 delegates at once will not come to pass -- though Hillary could certainly still benefit from this contest, particularly with it being a primary.

Looking ahead at the next batch of states

March 4th having brought no resolution whatsoever to the Democratic race, the race is pressing on to the upcoming contests -- Wyoming this Saturday, Mississippi on Tuesday and then a six week break until Pennsylvania on April 22nd. The Keystone state is the only state scheduled to vote in April, but there is then a bunch of elections in May, starting with "Mini-mini-Super Tuesday" on the 6th (Indiana and North Carolina).

Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign is also busy recovering from weeks of internal strife and tensions between top aides, which have undermined the efficiency of what was supposed to be a ruthless and unstoppable machine. Today, the Washington Post published a very well sourced must-read account of the intra-campaign fights that goes way back to the beginning of the year and even provides some new information (for example the fact that Bill Clinton decided by himself to go and blanket South Carolina in the days leading up to that primary, and that Hillary's entourage did not dare tell him to pull back because they had never been his entourage).

The article's main narrative predictably centers on Mark Penn and the number of times his innumerable enemies (Ickles, Patti Doyle, the "White Boys") have tried to get him fired or at least have tried to minimize his influence; in recent weeks, the different camps have been dueling to blame each other for the campaign's difficulties -- with expletive-filled arguments. The article also provides some background to the most puzzling question of this primary season: Why did Clinton entirely give up on Super Tuesday's caucuses, allowing Obama to run up huge margins there? It appears that some aides had warned against it, but that others -- including Sen. Clinton -- were too "burned" by Iowa to want to try that again.

There would have been infinitely more of this kind of stories had Clinton been eliminated on Tuesday. But right now, there isn't much time to be retrospective, as both campaigns are focusing on the elections of the next few days. Wyoming only awards 12 delegates, but keep in mind that it is in small states like this that Clinton fell so far behind in February. In Idaho, for example, the delegate split was a dramatic 15 to 3, a bigger margin than Clinton obtained in some of her strongest states like New Jersey. Accordingly, both Obama and Clinton are running radio ads in Wyoming -- a state that is certainly not used to hearing ads for Democratic presidential candidates. Bill Clinton is campaigning in Wyoming today, and will then travel to Mississippi, and Hillary might be in Wyoming tomorrow as well.

The big prize, of course, is Pennsylvania. And just as Clinton was climbing back in North Carolina yesterday, Rasmussen shows her to have momentum in the Keystone state:

• Clinton is now leading 52% to 37%, a significant improvement from last week's 4% lead.
• A 15% victory would undeniably help Clinton catch up some of Obama's delegate lead.
  

There are a number of factors that are going to make Pennsylvania very difficult for Obama. For one, it is a closed primary -- the first major closed primary we had have in quite a while -- which means that only registered Democrats will be allowed to take part in the vote. Obama has derived much help from independents and Republicans crossing over and favoring him, and Clinton has routinely done better among just registered Democrats, so this could help her not only win but also get a bigger margin of victory -- which is obviously essential to her chances, just as it was on March 4th.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post (once again!) takes a look at Pennsylvania's demographics and concludes that Clinton should be viewed as favored to win: The demographics are even more favorable to her than they were in Ohio: The electorate will be a bit older, and college educated voters will make a smaller share of the electorate. If Clinton holds to her electoral coalition -- which she has done in every contest except in Wisconsin (and, to a lesser extent, in the Potomac) -- the race should be prolonged beyond April 22nd.

And that gets us to Florida and Michigan. There is a renewed push for a solution in those states, and while the Clinton campaign is pushing that the delegates determined in January be seated, that seems like an unlikely scenario and the campaign must know that. They need Florida and Michigan delegates to catch up with Obama, and that makes it likely that they would endorse a re-do vote. Naturally, that carries a big risk: If Obama wins either of those states, it could give him a psychological boost that Clinton would have a hard time recovering from. But the battle is still one of delegates, and Clinton has to find reservoirs to tap into.

The Florida and Michigan Governors signed a common statement yesterday, urging the DNC to count the January contests and seat the delegates, though FL Gov. Crist was open last week to the possibility of financing another primary. Keep in mind that financing is a huge issue here: A re-do can't just be easily organized. Holding a second round of primaries would cost about $10 million in each state, and the DNC has said that it is not willing to pay the bill. So unless Gov. Granholm and Gov. Crist are willing to find that money in their state's budget, the do-over plans would be put on hold. Could the Clinton campaign offer to pay for part of it (two or three emails to her supporters could probably raise that much money).

Are Democrats heading for a Florida do-over?

For much of the summer and fall, the primary season's calendar was a huge campaign story, as we were faced with the constant threat that New Hampshire would jump to 2007 or that Michigan would continue wreaking havoc. The calendar settled down only November 21st (when NH settled on January). But it is hard to believe that it is now March and we are once again discussing possible calendars and their implications for the race.

The Democratic contest could be over on Tuesday night, depending on the results in Ohio and in Texas. But if Hillary Clinton gets good enough results to stay in the race, we might be looking at a second Florida primary.

GOP Governor Crist opened the door to the possibility that he would agree to organize and fund a new Democratic primary (he did not "offer" such a primary for now, contrary to media reports, and he emphasized in his interview that he would like to see delegates seated according to the Jan. 29th vote). Unlike a caucus, a primary is paid by the state (and by taxpayers), and Howard Dean, the chairman of the DNC, acknowledged that this could be "very helpful" because money is an issue. If Crist were to refuse to organize a primary, the Democrats' only option at a do-over would be to hold a caucus, which would enrage the Clinton campaign -- and justifiably so, as it would have won the much higher turnout contest by 20%.

Crist's intervention means that we can expect very quick negotiations between the DNC, the candidates and the "rogue states" if the race is still going after March 4th. And the first question, of course, will be whether the Michigan and Florida state parties agree to any sort of do-over. For now party officials and senators from both states have rejected the idea of any repeat election, and are insisting that the results of the January contests have to stand. Crist could of course organize an election on the back of Democratic leaders, but that could lead to utter chaos and the Michigan Governor, a Democrat, would surely not do the same.

How does all of this affect the Clinton-Obama delegate showdown? For one, it opens up a reservoir of untapped delegates. Clinton is facing a nearly impossible task in her efforts to catch up Obama's delegate totals, mostly because they aren't that many more states in play. If Florida and Michigan are still out there, Clinton could hope to get a significant delegate lead out of those. In fact, this new hope that some Florida and Michigan delegates might be seated after all could be important enough to fit in Clinton's calculations of whether to stay in the race Tuesday night after the results of Ohio and Texas are known!

Sure, the best scenario for the Clinton campaign -- and that for which they have been clamoring for the past few weeks -- is that the Florida and Michigan delegates be seated according to the votes on January 15th and January 29th. That would obviously give a big boost to Clinton (in Florida, the delegate allocation out of the Jan. 29th primary is 67 for Clinton and 41 for Obama). But the Clinton campaign realizes that this is a very unlikely scenario: If Clinton does not have the votes on the convention floor to secure the nomination in the first place, it would be nearly impossible for her to get the FL and MI delegates seated.

There are four other possible scenarios: (1) Make-up primaries, (2) Make-up caucuses, (3) leaving Florida and Michigan out for good, and (4) some strange arrangement in which one part of the delegates would be selected on the basis of caucuses, and the rest would be selected on the basis of the January contests. Given Obama's significant advantage in caucuses (he won Washington's caucuses by 36% and the primary by 3%), the make-up primary scenario is the one that holds the most promise for Hillary.

One last (unrelated) note on Crist: Robert Novak is reporting that Romney allies is spreading rumors that John McCain promised Crist the VP spot in exchange for Crist's so crucial endorsement in the run-up to the Florida primary. Novak notes that there is no evidence of this whatsoever, but adds that it testifies to how angry Romney's camp still is about that endorsement that pretty much gave McCain the nomination.

A week from Super Tuesday, Clinton is holding her ground and performs well among key groups

There was no suspense tonight in the Democratic primary, as Hillary Clinton was marching towards a convincing Florida victory. But there were still a few questions that needed to be answered, as I explained this morning: margin, turnout and media coverage.

Margin and exit polls: Hillary's margin of victory was substantial. While she did not cross the 50% threshold, she did win by 17% which is a very healthy lead -- and she led both among early-voters and those who voted today. While Obama and Edwards did not campaign here, neither did Clinton so these polls are an interesting indication of what can be described as default numbers, similar to a national poll. And the fact that she is holding this big a lead has got to be reassuring for Clinton heading into Super Tuesday. After the catastrophic past few days (South Carolina debacle, Kennedy endorsement), she managed to hold her lead.

The exit polls do point to a few troubling signs for Clinton. For example, she trails among those who made their minds in the past month (though she wins among those who made their mind today), underscoring that Clinton has lost ground in the past month. Also, Obama's 33% is a good result that shows he has been able to capitalize on the withdrawal of other candidates and on his own buzz to raise above where he was a few weeks ago.

But the Clinton campaign will not deny that. After all, they started 2008 with a big enough national lead that they can lose some ground and still hold a lead. If Clinton survives Super Tuesday -- which is only in a week -- she will feel good about holding on after that since the bulk of states will have voted. And however momentum Obama has, he has not yet eroded Clinton's national lead (reflected in her numbers in places like California).

With Feb. 5th voters now paying attention, Obama has an opening to make his case and move some numbers. But Florida was meant to give us some indication of whether Obama can outperform expectations and show that there is some movement building. This was a perfect opportunity for him to hammer Clinton a bit more and prove that the SC win and Kennedy endorsement have fundamentally changed the playing field. But he did not do that tonight. While he could have lost by more, certainly, there is no big shift just yet and Clinton is holding her own.

Looking at the detail of exit polls also should make Clinton feel better about next week. First, she got a higher proportion of the black vote in South Carolina (about 23-24%) and it is essential for her to cut her losses as much as possible among African-Americans. If anything, she would lose a lot of delegates next week if she fails to break 15% in some precincts and counties. Second, Clinton once against came out with a strong lead among Latinos, just as in Nevada, confirming her strength among that group that should help her greatly next week in California and Arizona.

Turnout: More than 1.7 million voters went to the poll in a Democratic primary that had been hammered as insignificant. That is comparable to the less than 2 million who voted in the GOP primary, described as a momentous occasion. Not only does that say something about the level of excitement on the Democratic side (that we witnessed in even more dramatic fashion in South Carolina), it also allows Hillary to argue that impressive turnout does not necessarily benefit Obama and that she can expand the voter universe too. More importantly, Clinton can argue that it's hard to ignore a contest with this many voters.

Media coverage: This is where Clinton is coming out the loser tonight, as she benefited from very little coverage. MSNBC mostly ignored the Democratic contest and only included the GOP results in the ticker at the bottom of its screen, while CNN's Wolf Blitzer rarely mentioned Clinton's victory without adding the modifier that there were no delegates at stake. Similarly, the Democratic results are hardly visible on the NYT's web frontpage right now. The networks carried the beginning of Clinton's speech live, but neither MSNBC and CNN let it run in its entirety. If you want a more precise rundown of what was seen on TV tonight, our very own commentator Robert V. summarized the media's ignoring the Democratic primary.

This means that Clinton will have to work overdrive to spin this into a result that should be covered. And while it gives her an opportunity to change the subject and stop bleeding support in the run-up to Super Tuesday, don't expect Florida to give her a significant bounce. It will at best allow her to stabilize herself and keep on to whatever edge she has left at this point.

Ultimately, this determination to ignore the Florida results is strange. I have been writing about the absurdity of the pledge for many months now, and this week's developments are not making me feel better about this calendar's chaos. First, as I explained this morning, delegates are not the number we should be looking at just yet. They will be in the morning of February 6th if no one gets a decisive victory on Super Tuesday. Second, Clinton did got half of the vote in a state in which no one campaigned thus in which no one had a particularly strong advantage. At the end of the day, the Clinton camp is very satisfied tonight that its support is not eroding as they were afraid it might be, and that satisfaction is not just spin.

Edwards: John Edwards got 14.6% tonight, very close to the viability threshold of 15% he will have to meet next week to get delegates. This will be the test of whether the convention might be brokered: Will Edwards take enough delegates to prevent Clinton and Obama from getting a majority? He will have to get to 15% either statewide or in a significant number of districts to do so, and tonight's number suggests he is still in the hunt. He won a few counties in Northern Florida and was strong in dfiferent parts of the state. He is hovering in an area in which he can get delegates, so don't count him out as kingmaker just yet.

Florida results thread: McCain wins and is close to the nomination, Clinton prevails, Giuliani could endorse McCain

12:30am: Full analysis will come soon, but here are the almost final results from Florida. Among Republicans, John McCain gets 36% to Romney's 31.1. Giuliani barely hangs on to third place with 14.6% with Mike Huckabee at 13.5%. As predicted, Romney won Jacksonville County big (41% to 27%) but did not do well in the I-4 corridor, losing Tampa's Hillsborough County 47% to 40%. McCain also outperformed Romney in the conservative panhandle, where Huckabee drew a lot of votes (and won a few counties). But it is Miami-Dade County that did Romney in, as McCain got 49% there to Romney's 16%.
Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton finished barely below 50%, at 49.7%, with Obama at 33%. Edwards got 14.4% and won a few counties in the North.

9:35pm: Rudy Giuliani's concession speech went through the main elements of his stump speech... using past tense to talk about his campaign: "We ran a campaign that was uplifting." He did not announce his intentions, and then CNN (and presumably other networks) interrupted his speech, as Romney had started speaking. Romney's concession speech took many shots at Washington DC and how they "haven't" done anything, as an upbeat Romney and a raucous crowd vowed to press on. A preview of next week's campaigning. Meanwhile with two-thirds of precincts reporting, Clinton is at 50% while McCain is ahead by 60,000 votes, 36% to 32%.

9:15pm: The election is called for John McCain. A huge victory for the Arizona Senator who gets all of the state's 57 delegates. This could be the end of the fight for the Republican nomination. With Giuliani perhaps getting behind McCain within 24 hours and McCain already ahead in states like California, New York, it's going to be very hard for Romney to stop him.

9:10pm: With Rudy Giuliani a distant third, the discussion tonight is when he withdraws -- and when he endorses McCain, with whom he is close. CNN is reporting that there are "ongoing conversations" that Giuliani could endorse McCain as early as tomorrow, something Time is reporting with a bit more certainty. Meanwhile, Huckabe gave a speech that pledged to press forward to Super Tuesday. And this could create a situation in which Giuliani's votes go to McCain but Romney is deprived of Huckabee's.
With 51% reporting, McCain is looking stronger, now up 36% to 31% which is a 50,000 margin. Romney is running weaker than he wanted to in the I-4 Corridor, particularly in the Tampa area and in Orlando's, where McCain and Romney are tied. That's a county Romney had to do well in And to make matters worse, McCain is looking good in the Panhandle and... Palm Beach hasn't even started reporting. Things are looking very good for McCain.

8:55pm: Clinton is ahead with 51% and she just gave a fiery victory speech. The networks carried 5 minutes of her speech before interrupting, despite Clinton's very large victory. Also noteworthy is that Clinton carried.the Latino vote big and that her big lead indicates that she did not lose any votes in the past week despite the awful week-end she had.
With 46% of the vote in, McCain is building up his lead. He is slowly climbing up and is now leading by 37,000 votes -- 35% to 32%. 31% of Miami Dade is in, and McCain is leading 46% to 13% for Romney (Giuliani gets 32%). There are still thousands and thousands of votes to come in in Miami, so McCain's lead will still grow thanks to Miami. Marc Ambinder is quoting a Romney adviser acknowledging that this is heading towards a McCain victory.

8:30pm: John King on CNN is going through the vote county by county and shows McCain performing well in areas he has to do well; and Romney is doing more poorly in counties he has to do well in. Miami Dade has started reporting and Romney is way behind, 44% to 12% for now. The Panhandle is still mostly out.

8:15pm: With 30% reporting, Romney surged and is behind only 8,000 votes -- 34% to 33%. This is obviously not very significant, but it should serve as a reminder that we are waiting for votes from some of the biggest counties in the state. But exit polls are now showing that Romney is running third among Hispanics, behind McCain and Giuliani. And the Southern part of the state (and Dade County) with the highest proportion of Hispanics is not really reporting yet.

8:05pm: Networks call it for Hillary Clinton, who is flirting with the 50% threshold. And the Republican side is staying way to close to call, with McCain up 21,000 votes 34% to 31% with 24% in. And the exit polls are now being released, and they show McCain up 2% on Romney (though I don't think that includes early-voting).

7:55pm: 12% of precincts now reporting (apparently Florida did not learn to not release results before all polls are closed) and McCain is up 34% to 31%, with most of the important counties still outstanding. The Panhandle, of course, but also Miami, Tampa and Jacksonville's areas. A troubling sign for the Romney campaign: He was supposed to do well for Saratosa County. But with almost all the county in, McCain is leading there 39% to 33%. Among Democrats, Clinton is up with 52% also with 12% precincts counted. Hillary would obviously love to break 50%.

7:40pm: With 3% in, Romney and McCain and Romney are a hundred votes apart at 31%, with Giuliani at 17% and Huckabee at 14%. (These are MSNBC's numbers, the SOS website has Romney up 35-31 with as many precincts reporting). Numbers could fluctuate more than in other states as different parts of the state favor different candidates, and they are also different voting techniques which mean that the different regions will report at different rhythms.

7:10pm: Rumors of exit polls are circulating more today than in prior elections. The National Review hears that McCain is up 2% in the second wave of exit polls (i.e. to close to call), but that Romney is up by 6% among absentee/early-voters which make up about a third of voters. And Time Magazine actually is releasing early exit poll hints that have McCain leading big among senior citizens and Hispanics. Remember these are all early exit polls -- and we all know how wrong those can be.

Original Post: The polls in most of the state close at 7pm but the Panhandle -- which is on Central Time -- will close one hour late. The first hard results should not come to us before then, but exit polls could start being leaked within the next hour.

This results thread could be the one in which the GOP goes a long towards determining its nominee. It will be very hard for Mitt Romney to wrestle the nomination away from John McCain if the latter wins Florida tonight. But we aren't there yet at all. This is the first Republican contest in which no one has any idea what will happen. We went in IA, NH, MI, NV and SC with polls generally in agreement about the winner; but Florida surveys have consistently shown a toss-up with Romney and McCain swapping leads and staying within the margin of error. To make matters more complicated, a significant portion of the electorate (possibly about 40%) will have voted absentee and in early-voting, which will complicate our reading of exit polls and will also make some of the results unpredictable because immune to last minute momentum.

How important is Florida's Democratic primary?

Hillary Clinton is doing what she can to make Florida matter. She is holding a rally tonight in Florida after the polls close (well at 7pm, so an hour before). The pledge forbids pre-election campaigning, but says nothing about celebrating results in the state. That also probably means that she will deliver a victory speech tonight, and the networks will probably cover it since they will be on air anyway covering the GOP race. The Clinton campaign also organized a conference call today to push coverage of Florida. Howard Wolfson, for example, emphasized that it was, "heartening and extraordinary to see record numbers of people coming out and saying that their preferences and their voices and their choices matter."

The Obama camp has been trying to dismiss Florida for weeks, arguing that the primary here is a beauty contest with no delegates. And they rolled out John Kerry today to argue against the Clinton spin: "As voters look to the meaning of the Florida primary, they’re not looking of this kind of tactic." But how much does it matter that the state has no delegates? The odds of the convention being brokered are still extremely low, for they requires results to stay close until the summer and John Edwards to get a lot of delegates. While delegates will not be added tonight, the winner of a primary contest is usually determined by how manages expectations and the flow of momentum the best. And until we get a better indication that delegates will matter, the fact of the matter is that Florida will be a welcome break after a few days of (very) bad news for the Clinton campaign.

If the importance of Florida is momentum rather than delegates, the question is whether Super Tuesday voters care about Florida not having delegates? And will they even know that it does not and will they understand why that could matter (which I am not even sure it does until we know that the convention is brokered)? Or will they just tune in to see that Clinton has won in one of the biggest states in the country against the entire field -- unlike Michigan?

The answers to these questions are very much up in the air. We don't know what impact Florida might have, and it depends on three things:

• Margin: How much does Clinton win by? If she gets a big victory -- crossing 50% -- it is hard to ignore the fact that a majority of voters went for her. After all, her rival campaigns like to point out that most of the party is anti-Clinton. On the other hand, if Barack manages to keep it close it will serve as more evidence that Clinton is going down rapidly and that the Kennedy endorsement is playing out big in Obama's favor.
• Turnout: How many voters go to the polls? Most estimations are that it will be more than a million, and remember that there is a controversial initiative on the ballot today on property taxes that has attracted a lot of spending and that could drive up turnout.
• Media coverage: This is obviously the big question. Will the networks tonight and the press tomorrow cover this primary? This is where it gets tricky. It obviously depends on turnout and margins, but there is no question that the Democratic primary will be massively overshadowed by the GOP contest given how huge that one is. But that also means that the Democratic primary will get some coverage no matter what and if Clinton delivers a speech tonight it is likely to be covered.

One last thought on Florida: If Clinton loses the race (which would be a gigantic polling error next to which New Hampshire would look like it was spot-on), it could be a lot of fun to see the Obama campaign start arguing for why Florida matters and that turnout was big and see the Clinton campaign argue that this is a fight for delegates.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton got some more good news by grabbing an endorsement by Maxine Waters, an African-American representative from California who is considered one of the more left-of-center congresswoman in DC. Considering the building perception that Hillary is sinking among black voters and that nearly everyone who is endorsing over the past 3-4 days is going for Barack, this at least provides some comfort to the Clintons.

And Obama has received the endorsement of Kansas Governor Sibelius, who could be a big help in February 5th. I already covered and analyzed this on Sunday, when the first reports had emerged, but the media appears to be really covering it only now. Obama's goal on Super Tuesday is to do well in the interior states to hit Clinton's inability to win away from the coasts, so doing well in Kansas is an important part of his strategy.

In tight Florida race, some (small) evidence of a Crist boost for McCain

We are 24 hours from what is potentially the most important race in the GOP nomination, and whatever small edge Romney might have been building after a week of discussion of the economy has probably been erased by the deluge of good news McCain received over the week-end. Not only did he manage to switch the subject to national security and draw lots of praise from Mike Huckabee, but the headlines throughout the state were focusing on the endorsement of Governor Crist.

With that, let's get to the (many) polls released from Florida today, starting with those that were not taken post-Crist:

• Quinnipiac shows John McCain barely edging Romney 32% to 31%, with Giuliani at 14% and Huckabee at 13%. This poll was on the field Thursday to Sunday, so not very useful to determine any last-minute shifts.
• Among Democrats, Clinton is up 50% to 30% on Obama.


• ARG was in the field Friday-Saturday and shows a significant Romney improvement: Mitt edges McCain 33% to 32%, with Huckabee at 14% and Giuliani at 11%. Two days ago, Romney was only at 26%. Notice that ARG is including 4% of "independents" in the poll which is strange given that Florida is a closed primary!


• Strategy Vision, whose field dates are still unclear. They show McCain edging out Romney 27% to 26%, with Giuliani at 17% and Huckabee at 15%.


• And with that we get to Datamar, which was in the field Friday to Sunday and which is a complete outlier compared to anything else, showing Romney at 36% ahead of McCain at 23%!

Finally, we have two polls that explicitly measure the Crist effect and find a noticeable McCain boost following the endorsement:

• Zogby's tracking poll first of all has McCain bumped 3%, now leading 33% to 30% with Giuliani at 14% and Huckabee at 11%. Zogby adds that Sunday was a big day for McCain, who led 38% to 31% on Sunday alone.


• The worst news for Romney comes from Rasmussen, whose survey was entirely in the field on Sunday. In a poll released just yesterday, Romney was ahead 33% to 27%. 24 hours later, it's tied at 31% with Giuliani at 16% and Huckabee at 11%.


• Update: A seventh poll was now released, this one from Suffolk in the field Friday-Sunday. McCain is ahead 30% to 27% with Giuliani at 14% and Huckabee at 11%. The press release emphasizes the potential importance of Saturday's night endorsement, does that mean that their numbers show gains on Sunday for McCain?

Of all the GOP primaries, Florida's is the first one which has no favorite going in. And that will give that much of a bigger boost to the victor. If the race was indeed tied going into this week-end, it is indeed probable that McCain is now coming out with a small edge, however, and the Politico's Jonathan Martin thinks that Crist's support pretty much sealed the deal for the Arizona Senator. And it's hard not to notice that it is McCain who edges out Romney by 1% in most polls, though that is way within the margin of error.

On the Democratic side, it is worth watching the margin between Clinton and Obama. The stakes are much lower, but Clinton could get some revenge from Saturday's humiliation. And depending on how many voters do turn out (all indications are that Democratic turn out will be strong) Clinton could get some positive buzz out of a large victory.

We also got an interesting poll of the Colorado caucuses this morning, taken by Mason-Dixon. Colorado is a February 5th state, so we will hear a lot about it in the coming week:

• On the Republican side, Mitt Romney has a wide lead over John McCain, 43% to 24%, with Huckabee at 17%, Ron Paul at 5% and Giuliani at 4%.
• Among Democrats, Barack Obama edges out Hillary Clinton 34% to 32% with Edwards running strong at 17%.

Colorado is one of the state Obama has put the most effort in, and his organization there is strong. Given that the contest is a caucus, organization is especially important and could help Obama build on those 2%. His campaign wants to win the states on the interior to be able to make the argument that Hillary Clinton is strong only on the coasts (which is why the Missouri contest is particularly important).

What to do about Florida (and Michigan)'s delegates

The results of South Carolina are not yet in, but the Democratic campaigns are already looking forward to Florida. The Obama campaign has been accusing Clinton of trying to use Florida despite its being a rogue state, while the Clintonites charged that Obama had broken the pledge by running a national ad last week.

As we noted a few days ago, it is going to be increasingly difficult for the press to ignore the contest the way they did Michigan given that absentee ballots and early voting on the Democratic side are beating records and that turnout will likely be much bigger than expected. The NYT's Nagourney just weighted in. After reviewing the early turnout numbers, he offers a first indication of where the media is heading come Tuesday. And his pronouncement of Florida's importance is amazing news for Hillary Clinton: "The level of interest, if it is matched by turnout at the polls on Tuesday, could make the results in Florida more important for Democrats than they had assumed, given both the absence of candidates here and the fact that no delegates are at stake."

Now, Clinton has chosen to rush to the rescue of Michigan and Florida and proclaim herself the defender of their delegate rights. She released a statement yesterday saying that, "I believe our nominee will need the enthusiastic support of Democrats in these states to win the general election, and so I will ask my Democratic convention delegates to support seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan." Clinton would obviously benefit from the delegate influx from these two states given her win in MI and her probable triumph in FL.

Now, there is no question that if the Democratic nominee is decided in the spring there would be no suspense at the convention and it would not matter whether FL and MI delegates were seated. In such a case, the delegates would be restored whether the nominee is Obama or Clinton.

The problem, of course, is what would happen if the party reaches a brokered convention and delegate count actually ends up mattering. How can Clinton convince the DNC and her fellow candidates to restore seat Michigan and Florida's delegates if that would give her an important advantage -- and perhaps guarantee her nomination? In any case, we already know what the first fight would be about in Denver, and if it comes to that expect raucous votes on the convention floor on what to do with Michigan and Florida.

This also opens up the truly terrifying possibility for Dems that no resolution is reached and the delegates are not seated after all. Michigan and Florida are both very important swing states and the image of their not being representated at the convention could be disastrous for Democrats. You can be sure the GOP would seize on that to pound Dems in Florida and Michigan and the Democratic nominee would have a lot of work to do to restore voter good will in these states.

The Obama campaign wasted no time to respond to Clinton's new-found commitment to work for Florida's delegates via David Plouffe, Barack's campaign manager:

When Senator Clinton was campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, she made it clear that states like Michigan and Florida that wouldn’t produce any delegates, ‘don’t count for anything.’ Now that Senator Clinton’s worried about losing the first Southern primary, she’s using Florida for her own political gain by trying to assign meaning to a contest that awards zero delegates and where no campaigning has occurred.

To be fair to Clinton, she did leave her name on the Michigan ballot while Obama and Edwards knew they were on unfavorable terrain and use the opportunity to run away (and it's completely silly to say that this was done to respect the early states), so there is some prior evidence of Clinton being more reluctant to dismiss the rogue states. And she already reaped a benefit from her new stand: Senator Nelson of Florida is about to endorse her, praising her commitment to restore the state's delegates. In a Florida campaign that will be very low on news given that no candidates will appear in the state, such small developments could matter more than usual.

Good and bad news for Clinton: Obama has a wide lead in South Carolina, but it's going to be hard to ignore Florida

Zogby's first tracking poll of the Democratic race in South Carolina is out, and it gives a wide lead to Barack Obama:

• Obama gets 43% to Clinton's 25%. Edwards's is not that far behind, at 15%.
• Clinton is doing stunningly poorly among two groups. First, she loses the black vote 65% to 16%. And she barely gets a better share of the male vote, trailing 50% to 19%. The white vote is very divided, as Clinton is barely ahead of Edwards there -- 33% to 32%, with Obama trailing at 18%.

Zogby points out that Edwards appears to be catching up a bit more every day -- and there is no question that Clinton falling to third would be a big blow to her campaign. But that for now seems unlikely. Even if Edwards manages to pull to a tie among the white vote, most polls agree that he gets almost no share of the black vote which would make it very difficult for him to rise to a significant percentage.

The problem for Obama right now is that, if these numbers hold on Saturday, many in the media might be tempted to describe him as "a black candidate" who won on the strength of the black vote. Needless to say that such racial polarization would not play well for Obama come February 5th. This would naturally be extremely unfair to Obama and a stunning mischaracterization of the campaign since he had no problem winning a large plurality in Iowa, which is pretty much entirely white. So let's keep in mind that no one dismissed Clinton as the "female candidate" after New Hampshire because she relied on the women vote to get ahead.

Meanwhile, Clinton gets some very good news in her quest to make Florida relevant. All polls indicate that she is marching towards a big victory in the Sunshine state and, a week from Super Tuesday, she is hoping that gives her a boost -- especially if it can offset the probable loss in South Carolina. The problem, of course, is that no one is campaigning in Florida because of the pledge, there is no ads running (except on national cable, though even that sparked a controversy when Obama started running his) and no delegates. But look at what Marc Ambinder reports out of Florida today:

For Democrats, the number of returned absentee ballots in Florida so far exceeds the total number turned in in the 2004 general election, and the number of Democratic early voters plus the number of absentees requested is more than the number of actual voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada combined.

The numbers tell the story: 96,286 absentee ballots have already been returned, and the turnout projection right now exceeds a million voters. Can the media possibly ignore a contest in which voters came out in such high numbers and had an actual choice between candidates, since no candidate withdrew his name from the ballot? In Michigan, only Hillary was on the ballot so her "win" obviously had to be presented with question marks. But in a contest in which none of the candidate has an unfair advantage, how can the press not cover the primary if that many voters go to the polls?