5.03.2008

Delegate breakdown, as Obama is ahead in Guam by 7 votes (Update: There will be a recount!)

Hillary Clinton is catching no breaks in the Democratic primaries. She was publicly rooting for Eight Belles, the race's only female horse, in today's Kentucky Derby. But Eight Belles finished second, shockingly died and is now the lead on the Drudge Report...

More seriously, Clinton supporters have to be frustrated at their candidate's loss in the Guam caucuses. After trailing by 6% to 8% through the night, Clinton needed to win the last district -- which was also the most populous -- by a large margin. She ended up getting 62%... leaving her 7 votes short of Obama's total. Granted, this is out of a total of 5,000. This is naturally far from a meaningful defeat for Clinton, and the two candidates are splitting the four pledged delegates.

Guam voters also elected a ticket of superdelegates of which one is supporting Obama and the other having pledged to support the caucus winner (so these 7 votes did give Obama a boost in delegates). Thus, Obama gains two superdelegates out of Guam -- not to mention that this vote is getting more headlines than I expected (almost more headlines than Romney got out of Wyoming win on 01/05), with most of them proclaiming that "Obama wins the Guam caucuses." By no means a momentum changer, but there have been an accumulation of unlucky breaks like this that have put Clinton on the defensive.

[Update: Kuam TV stresses that those results are unofficial and subject to modification. In particular, there seem to be a high number of spoiled ballots in the Dededo district, the one Clinton got 61% in. It is thus possible that the lead changes -- and with it the endorsement of the newly elected Chairman of the Party.
Update #2: There will indeed be a recount in Guam, and special attention will be paid to the high number of spoiled ballots. Until then, the state party will not certify the results.]

In a positive development, however, the Clinton campaign improved its delegate margin in Pennsylvania after the breakdown by district was fully calculated. In my latest delegate breakdown, I allocated 83 delegates for Clinton, 73 for Obama and left two outstanding; some networks had estimated that these two delegates would be split equally. Now, the final breakdown appears to be 85-73 for Clinton.

This brings the pledged delegate total to:

  • Obama: 1490.5 delegates
  • Clinton: 1339.5
  • Differential: 151
Also today, however, Obama netted a boost in superdelegate endorsements beyond the two from Guam. Since yesterday evening, he has now picked up 5 superdelegates to Clinton's 2.

  • He got the support of the New Mexico party chair, Brian Colon (note that Clinton supporters were already complaining at NM's add-on selection, complaining that the party had selected a candidate leaning towards Obama despite Clinton's victory in on Super Tuesday).
  • In Maryland, the add-on selection process was completed today and attributed one superdelegate each to Clinton [Kathleen Kennedy Townsend] and Obama [former Gov. Parris Glendening]; in South Carolina, Obama supporter Inez Tenenbaum won an add-on slot as well.
  • Yesterday night, Clinton obtained the endorsement of Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr, a DNC member from Texas.
  • Louisiana picked New Orleans Mayor Nagin as an add-on; Nagin has yet to commit to a candidate.
Clinton's path to the nomination is getting increasingly difficult as the number of uncommitted superdelegates is decreasing. As we have noted numerous times, Clinton already needs to convince a large majority of the remaining superdelegates to back her and that proportion naturally increases the more Obama nets gains among supers.

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4 Comments:

  • Can you recommend a good website with an up to date listing of all the supers, in declared and undeclared categories?

    By Blogger Mark, At 03 May, 2008 19:56  

  • Mark,

    Dem Con Watch's superdelegate page is the best that I know of.

    By Blogger Taniel, At 03 May, 2008 20:01  

  • Thus, Obama gains two superdelegates out of Guam -- not to mention that this vote is getting more headlines than I expected

    Never in my life did I expect to be closely following the results of a primary in Guam. (No offense to Guam, of course.)

    That being said, I agree with Taniel that the reduction in uncommitted superdelegates is the main story here.

    And yes, DemConWatch rules!

    By Blogger dsimon, At 03 May, 2008 20:06  

  • I know this is nothing to do with politics but the death horse its kind of sad don't you think?

    By Blogger Javier, At 04 May, 2008 03:11  

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