The morning after: Clinton's bargain, as Obama and McCain launch the general election
Last night, the two Democratic candidates lived in alternate dimensions. On the one hand, Barack Obama proclaimed himself the Democratic nominee after the networks showed him surpassing the magic threshold of 2,118 and delivered a celebratory speech in front of thousands of supporters as the media commemorated the first black nominee of a major US party. On the other, Hillary Clinton issued a defiant and combative message to her rival, avoiding any sort of concession and offering only some weakly-worded praise; she recapped her own claim to the nomination -- the popular vote and electability -- and said it was too early for her to decide anything.
Yesterday was meant to be Obama's night. Given how much of a favorite he had become since mid-February, it is easy to forget how giant an upset his victory his and how inevitable Clinton's nomination looked just 7 months ago or at least until the Philadelphia debate held at the end of October.
Last nigt, after months of false rumors about stacks of superdelegates just waiting to endorse, the Illinois Senator stunningly delivered on the promise of a superdelegate tsunami. About 40 delegates behind yesterday morning, he now stands at 2,156 by CNN's count, 38 more than the majority. Of these roughly 80 delegates Obama accumulated over the past day, only 15 came from Montana and South Dakota. Obama moved to put the nomination out of Clinton's reach, and even a more favorable allocation of Michigan's delegate would not solve Hillary's problem now, unless she insists on a full seating which her post-RBC reaction appeared to rule out.
Clinton first crashed the party by pulling an unexpected victory in South Dakota, the first legitimate upset since February. And in an ironic sense of event, it is the state in which she finally accomplished what she had been trying to do ever since March 4th (create a true surprise) that allowed Obama to win the delegates necessary to clinch the nomination. This latest development is telling of how much of a lead Obama had build by the end of February since three months of sustained Clinton victories -- some of them huge -- still leave her about 100 pledged delegates behind her rivals. This is, Obama supporters will say, a reminder of how futile Clinton's quest has been and how much time Democrats have wasted.
The sheer magnitude of the superdelegate tsunami led most observers to believe Clinton would pull out of the race in her speech, or at least concede that her odds are long. But she did no such thing and prevented the Democratic Party from launching its re-unification process heading into Obama's speech on a night in which TV networks were carrying speeches live in front of a large audience. Clinton's tone was more combative than expected, signaling that reports that she was on the verge of conceding were probably overstated -- one does not decide to be use this defiant a speech at the last minute. Clinton probably underestimates her party's expectation that she would offer some gesture last night and, whatever she does in the coming days, yesterday's speech might come back to haunt her if other Democratic figures are resentful of her last minute slap in the face.
Given the high odds Clinton faces, it is clear that she is looking to bargain something in exchange for her concession and for her support of Obama. But what is she asking for and, as importantly, what is Obama ready to give her? The vice-presidential nomination? It is too early to talk of that, and the Obama campaign does not want to tie its hands in the back -- though there are some scenarios in which they might eventually realize they need to tap their former rival. Simply to save face? Given how wounded reports indicate the Clintons are, this is a possible factor as well. Another possibility -- and one Obama might be more willing to grant -- is to give Clinton an important role in crafting and passing health care policy. Clinton emphasized that issue repeatedly last night, perhaps to pressure Obama to take up elements of his plan and perhaps to win an actual position. It is difficult to see how Clinton could seriously be envisioning any other route than dropping out over the next few days, however, as the political damage to her legacy and role in the Senate would be too great at this point were she at all serious about contesting Obama's nomination all the way to Denver.
While Hillary Clinton remained at the center of the political stage, John McCain and Barack Obama had moved on to their own contest. Both their speeches were combative and should be considered as the official launch of the general election. But the comparison was not favorable to McCain in ways that are puzzling: Why did his campaign not plan for this important night better? This was the first prime time speech McCain would deliver since March 4th and most probably the last until his acceptance speech in September; it was also his re-introduction to voters. Why, then, was McCain's speech so overwhelmingly negative and why was it almost exclusively focused on Obama? The Democrat's address, by contrast, had large portions designed to attack McCain but it also contained the usual more uplifting passages that celebrated his clinching the nomination and marked the path forward.
And why was the event organized in such a small venue in front of a relatively small crowd? Not to mention the problems with McCain's delivery, as he strangely snickered when repeating his campaign's new motto, "That's not change we can believe in." Compare McCain's enthusiasm and fire not just to Obama's speech but also to Clinton's. The New York Senator's addresses on election night paled in comparison to Obama's for much of the past few months, as is expected, but that was due to his speech-making strength -- not to her weakness. McCain will never win based on his oratory, and he knows that. But yesterday's speech had a number of strategic and purely organizational mistakes that is surprising from a campaign that had so much time to prepare.
Given this strange situation, it is easy to forget that McCain unveiled some important themes of his general election campaign that we will hear about in the coming weeks: He accused Obama of being in the pocket of special interests and of wanting to lead Iraq into chaos. And he pinpointed the area on which he will draw the sharpest contrasts with Obama: We are done with Clinton's experience, prepare to hear about judgment. McCain also presented himself as an independent voice, independent from both the Bush Administration and the Republican Party and its special interests. That message has two drawbacks, of course -- it puts the Arizona Senator on a defensive position and risks alienating conservative voters. But the combative and openly disdainful tone McCain used last night does point to one thing: He has been waiting for a long time for the general election to start and we should be ready for things to get heated fast.
Yesterday was meant to be Obama's night. Given how much of a favorite he had become since mid-February, it is easy to forget how giant an upset his victory his and how inevitable Clinton's nomination looked just 7 months ago or at least until the Philadelphia debate held at the end of October.
Last nigt, after months of false rumors about stacks of superdelegates just waiting to endorse, the Illinois Senator stunningly delivered on the promise of a superdelegate tsunami. About 40 delegates behind yesterday morning, he now stands at 2,156 by CNN's count, 38 more than the majority. Of these roughly 80 delegates Obama accumulated over the past day, only 15 came from Montana and South Dakota. Obama moved to put the nomination out of Clinton's reach, and even a more favorable allocation of Michigan's delegate would not solve Hillary's problem now, unless she insists on a full seating which her post-RBC reaction appeared to rule out.
Clinton first crashed the party by pulling an unexpected victory in South Dakota, the first legitimate upset since February. And in an ironic sense of event, it is the state in which she finally accomplished what she had been trying to do ever since March 4th (create a true surprise) that allowed Obama to win the delegates necessary to clinch the nomination. This latest development is telling of how much of a lead Obama had build by the end of February since three months of sustained Clinton victories -- some of them huge -- still leave her about 100 pledged delegates behind her rivals. This is, Obama supporters will say, a reminder of how futile Clinton's quest has been and how much time Democrats have wasted.
The sheer magnitude of the superdelegate tsunami led most observers to believe Clinton would pull out of the race in her speech, or at least concede that her odds are long. But she did no such thing and prevented the Democratic Party from launching its re-unification process heading into Obama's speech on a night in which TV networks were carrying speeches live in front of a large audience. Clinton's tone was more combative than expected, signaling that reports that she was on the verge of conceding were probably overstated -- one does not decide to be use this defiant a speech at the last minute. Clinton probably underestimates her party's expectation that she would offer some gesture last night and, whatever she does in the coming days, yesterday's speech might come back to haunt her if other Democratic figures are resentful of her last minute slap in the face.
Given the high odds Clinton faces, it is clear that she is looking to bargain something in exchange for her concession and for her support of Obama. But what is she asking for and, as importantly, what is Obama ready to give her? The vice-presidential nomination? It is too early to talk of that, and the Obama campaign does not want to tie its hands in the back -- though there are some scenarios in which they might eventually realize they need to tap their former rival. Simply to save face? Given how wounded reports indicate the Clintons are, this is a possible factor as well. Another possibility -- and one Obama might be more willing to grant -- is to give Clinton an important role in crafting and passing health care policy. Clinton emphasized that issue repeatedly last night, perhaps to pressure Obama to take up elements of his plan and perhaps to win an actual position. It is difficult to see how Clinton could seriously be envisioning any other route than dropping out over the next few days, however, as the political damage to her legacy and role in the Senate would be too great at this point were she at all serious about contesting Obama's nomination all the way to Denver.
While Hillary Clinton remained at the center of the political stage, John McCain and Barack Obama had moved on to their own contest. Both their speeches were combative and should be considered as the official launch of the general election. But the comparison was not favorable to McCain in ways that are puzzling: Why did his campaign not plan for this important night better? This was the first prime time speech McCain would deliver since March 4th and most probably the last until his acceptance speech in September; it was also his re-introduction to voters. Why, then, was McCain's speech so overwhelmingly negative and why was it almost exclusively focused on Obama? The Democrat's address, by contrast, had large portions designed to attack McCain but it also contained the usual more uplifting passages that celebrated his clinching the nomination and marked the path forward.
And why was the event organized in such a small venue in front of a relatively small crowd? Not to mention the problems with McCain's delivery, as he strangely snickered when repeating his campaign's new motto, "That's not change we can believe in." Compare McCain's enthusiasm and fire not just to Obama's speech but also to Clinton's. The New York Senator's addresses on election night paled in comparison to Obama's for much of the past few months, as is expected, but that was due to his speech-making strength -- not to her weakness. McCain will never win based on his oratory, and he knows that. But yesterday's speech had a number of strategic and purely organizational mistakes that is surprising from a campaign that had so much time to prepare.
Given this strange situation, it is easy to forget that McCain unveiled some important themes of his general election campaign that we will hear about in the coming weeks: He accused Obama of being in the pocket of special interests and of wanting to lead Iraq into chaos. And he pinpointed the area on which he will draw the sharpest contrasts with Obama: We are done with Clinton's experience, prepare to hear about judgment. McCain also presented himself as an independent voice, independent from both the Bush Administration and the Republican Party and its special interests. That message has two drawbacks, of course -- it puts the Arizona Senator on a defensive position and risks alienating conservative voters. But the combative and openly disdainful tone McCain used last night does point to one thing: He has been waiting for a long time for the general election to start and we should be ready for things to get heated fast.
posted by Taniel at
8:17 AM
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