In troubling news for Clinton, pace of superdelegate endorsements accelerating

The number of uncommitted superdelegates is rapidly declining. After 5 endorsements on Monday and 5 on Tuesday, the number dropped by 9 more today -- with a 10th superdelegate vote switching sides. At the end of the day, this is a net increase of 4 for Clinton, while Obama bests her with a net increase of 5. With every superdelegate that Obama pick-ups, Clinton's road gets tougher and the proportion of uncommitted superdelegates she needs to win increases.

Thus, these past 3 days have been as tough as any for the Clinton campaign -- and this despite Obama's rough patch and his at times dramatically declining poll numbers. Even the best results on May 6th will not help her if she cannot convince superdelegates to remain patient.

First, the Illinois and New York Democratic parties add-ons were revealed today. Both states are choosing figures who are unanimously supporting their Senators. Thus, NY's 4 add-ons (including state Attorney General Cuomo and state Comptroller DiNapoli) are Clinton endorsees, while IL's 3 add-ons (including Mayor Daley) are Obama supporters. The fact that some of the undecided superdelegate spots have not yet been allocated is one more obstacle that Clinton will have to overcome; indeed, there is very little Clinton can do to pick-up the share of add-ons she needs. Many of the slots will be filled by party committees in states that Obama won handily (Maryland, for instance, will choose its add-ons on Sunday) and these committees will be hard pressed to allocate these slots to Obama supporters.

Three non-add-on superdelegates also made news today:

• After the president of Pennsylvania's AFL-CIO yesterday, John Olsen, the president of the Connecticut's AFL-CIO endorsed Clinton today.

• But an AFL-CIO official in Texas, John Patrick, expressed his support for Obama.

• Finally, the most high-profile endorsement came from Joe Andrew, the former chairman of the DNC from 1999 to 2001. A Clinton loyalist, Andrew was a Hillary supporter but he announced today that he was switching his support to Obama.
  

Andrew provided two reasons for his decision, and they are both likely to be touted by the Obama campaign in the coming days. He blasted the Clintons' "old politics" of which he said he has long been part. Responding to the Clinton campaign before it had even reacted, Andrew explained, "I will be branded as disloyal, power-hungry, but most importantly, they will use the exact words that Republicans used to attack me when I was defending President Clinton." Second, Andrew asserted that he was convinced the prolonged primary was hurting Democrats and that the party had to unite ASAP to prevent a McCain victory. This is of course a crucial argument the Obama campaign is voicing to superdelegates, while Clinton has been more successful in persuading them that no irremediable harm would be done.

As a former DNC chairman, Andrew is an insider with a lot of connections -- and that could lead other superdelegates to take notice of his choice and the arguments he is using and to come out with their own endorsements. To halt the superdelegate movement before it is too late, Clinton needs to deal a truly powerful blow to the Obama campaign on Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina -- her Pennsylvania victory was evidently not large enough for superdelegates to take pause.

That the number of uncommitted superdelegates declined by 19 in 72 hours also suggests that Obama could get close to the "magic number" of 2,024 faster than we were expecting, especially when the delegates of Indiana and North Carolina are allocated. The Obama campaign is now placing itself 283 delegates away from the nomination. The closer Obama gets, of course, the higher the proportion of remaining votes Clinton will have to snatch, though the Obama campaign's calculations are based on a convention with no Florida and Michigan delegates seated. If any arrangement is found in those two states, and even if just the superdelegates are allowed to sit, Obama will find himself further to a majority, breathing new life to the Clinton campaign. (Just imagine how different our conversation might have been right now if the Clinton campaign had succeeded in scheduling a revote for FL and MI on June 3rd...).