The end game thread: Obama clinches nomination, Clinton wins SD and McCain delivers very weak speech

7:50am: Steve Pearce puts an end to the career of Heather Wilson by defeating her by a few thousands votes. After surviving countless challenges by Democrats in her district NM-01, many of them won when Democrats were sure of picking-up her seat (see 2006), Wilson fell to a more conservative Republican in a primary and sees her political career interrupted. The two candidates polled roughly the same against Udall for the general election (with perhaps a slight advantage to Pearce) but Democrats ought to be relieved that they won't have to face Wilson's formidable campaign skills. For a moderate to have kept it this close in a low-turnout primary dominated by conservatives once again speaks to her survival instincts. Meanwhile, in CA-04, the conservative wing of the GOP also defeated a more moderate candidate and gave the nomination to famous California conservative Tom McClintock, who is now slightly favored to beat Democrat Charlie Brown in a district that clearly leans Republican.

11:45pm: Senator Lautenberg survives his primary by a significant margin, and so does Rep. Boswell of Iowa, with about 60% of the vote. The New Jersey Senate race will now oppose Lautenberg to former Rep. Zimmer, who narrowly won his party's nod. In New Mexico, Steve Pearce is holding on to the tightest of leads against Heather Wilson -- but her district is underreporting compared to his and that could help her pull a come-from-behind victory (if Wilson becomes the nominee Democrats ought to be careful as she always seems able to snatch victory from the brink of defeat). In NM-01, it looks like Martin Heinrich will become the Democratic nominee, setting a hotly contested open seat race against Republican sheriff White.

10:30pm: Obama proclaims himself the Democratic nominee and delivers a tribute to Hillary Clinton and her service in an attempt to woo her supporters and avoid giving the impression of pressuring her. Speaking to a cheering crowd that has packed the St. Paul auditorium in which McCain will accept the nomination in early September, Obama then turned his sights to John McCain and outlined his differences with the Arizona Senator. Since I criticized McCain for talking about Obama too much in his own speech, I ought to say the same here but it's hard to deny that Obama's tone is much less negative (there are no snickers, for one) and Obama quickly moved on to talk about his own priorities and his own hopes -- moving to celebrate this day as the end of his primary campaign. Obama finished his speech to a screaming crowd. Rarely had the difference in Obama and his opponents' speech-making ability been so obvious, as McCain's speech was weak in a way Clinton's never were (compare the energy of Hillary's rally to McCain's).

10:05pm: Montana is called for Obama, which allows prevents Clinton from scoring two upsets tonight (and which also gives Obama 5 new superdelegate endorsements, including the state's governor's and 2 senators). The exit polls suggest this is going to be a huge win for the Illinois Senator. We are now waiting for Obama's speech, the third and final one of the night.
In AL-02, Bobby Bright, the Montgomery Mayor who the GOP also tried to recruit (underscoring how conservative Bright is) will be the Democratic nominee's in this district that Bush won with 67% of the race. Meanwhile, in the New Mexico Senate primary, Heather Wilson is off to a strong start as she is leading Steve Pearce by 6% even though Pearce's district is the one that has reported the most and Wilson's has barely started reporting. In New Jersey, Lautenberg is continuing to crush Andrews by more than 30% with almost two thirds reporting.

9:50pm: After a very long speech in which she at times looked set to drop out and which she started with a long recognition of all Obama has accomplished but in which she also outlined her own case for the nomination (claiming the popular vote, outlining she won states that are necessary to get 270 electoral votes and that she is more electable), Clinton announced... she would make no decision today and consulting with party leaders. She also emphasized the issue of health care, in what is perhaps a signal that she will take that in negotiations with the Obama campaign (either to have him embrace elements of her plan or to appoint her as his point-person on health care issues). I think most people -- including me -- were expecting Clinton to announce she was dropping out considering how massive the day's superdelegate tsunami ended up being but she remained stunningly defiant. She said she would talk to party figures in the coming days but outlined no path to the nomination -- how does she think she can reverse the tide?!

9:25pm: South Dakota called for Hillary Clinton. With 19% reporting, she is ahead 57% to 43%. Is it not appropriate of what has happened ever since the beginning of March that Obama would win the nomination based on his delegates in a state in which Clinton unexpectedly won (in what is the first true upset since February). For much of the past three months, Clinton won important contests but she never did so by a margin large enough to change the race's fundamentals. By the time she started pulling in large leads (WV, KY and PR), it was too late. And by the time she won the first state that was expected to go for Obama, her rival already clinched the nomination. Overall, her last-minute win deprives Obama of closing strongly, something she has denied him for much of the past few months; Ben Smith notes this is particularly embarrassing for one of Obama's strongest backers, former Sen. Tom Dashle.
In New Jersey, meanwhile, Lautenberg is now crushing Andrews 64% to 31% with 46% reporting. In the GOP race, former Rep. Zimmer is narrowly leading.

9:10pm:"That's not change we can believe in," McCain repeated in a speech that was interrupted at before its completion as the networks wanted to call the Democratic race. Did the McCain campaign realize this was the candidate's first primetime speech since March 4th and his first general election speech? Is this how he wants to reintroduce himself to voters and launch his general election campaign? In what was intended to frame his showdown with Obama, McCain devoted much of his speech to attacking the Illinois Senator, accusing his opponent of being in the pocket of special interests, of threatening to lead Iraq into chaos and more generally questioned Obama's judgment. Overall, the tone of McCain's comments were overwhelmingly negative, which I believe was a mistake considering that the rest of the night would clearly be a celebration of Obama's candidacy and that this was McCain chance to launch his general election campaign on his own terms. And I am not even mentioning the terrible delivery, the strange snicker before each rendition of "That's not change we can believe in," the obvious teleprompter reading, and the very sparse crowd weakly cheering and jeering (could McCain not find a better venue and a bigger crowd for this important speech?).

McCain did attempt to define himself as well, choosing to emphasize his reputation as an independent voice who is in the pocket of neither party. He repeated that his priority is working "for you" and claimed the mantle of change. He also did his best to distance himself from President Bush, repeating that he does not represent a third term (talk about being on the defensive) and that he has long opposed the president on issues like climate change and the management of the Iraq war. McCain also emphasized his new slogan, "A leader we can believe in," a rip-off of Obama's slogan that is meant to emphasize that Obama's promise is "empty hope" and that only McCain has the judgment to lead the country.

9pm: Networks announce that Obama has earned more than 2,118 delegates and is projected as the presumptive Democratic nominee. The polls closed in South Dakota and, while it is too early to call a winner, Obama cannot not win a few delegates there and thus get the 4-5 delegates he needed as of 10 minutes ago.
Surprisingly, the polls actually show Clinton leading in South Dakota! ARG's poll, which came out of nowhere to show her ahead two days ago, could be vindicated and Clinton could leave on a high note (note that Clinton also picked up a last minute superdelegate!)

8:40pm: Frank Lautenberg is off to a decent start though Andrews is coming in stronger than expected, as the incumbent leads 55% to 40% with 9% of precincts reporting. Keep in mind that Andrews launched in the battle stunningly late, and if he manages to keep this relatively close he will really come to regret not having launched his race months earlier. It takes time to organize a statewide primary battle against as established an incumbent as Lautenberg.

Original Post: The last results thread of the primary season will, appropriately enough, be devoted less to raw results than to superdelegate endorsements. Polls close at 9pm and 10pm ET in Montana and South Dakota and given the pace at which superdelegates are endorsing, it is possible that Obama will clinch the nomination before polls close in either of those states. Polls have also closed in Alabama and New Jersey, which are holding some contested primaries today, so we shall soon know whether Frank Lautenberg survived the last-minute primary challenge mounted by Rep. Andrews.

For now, here are some guidelines of what to watch for tonight.

The end game: Primary season ends tomorrow

For those who have moved on from the Democratic primary, it's easy to forget that tomorrow is the last primary day as South Dakota and Montana go to the polls. The Obama campaign is working overtime to convince superdelegates to rally around him in the coming days for the Illinois Senator to reach the magic number of 2,118 and claim the nomination.

Before we get there, however, we have to get through two more primaries and new polls today suggest that those might not be as much of formalities as we expected. Obama is heavily favored to win both South Dakota and Montana but two new ARG polls tell a different story:

• In Montana, a state with 16 delegates, Obama is barely ahead 48% to 44%. The two are tied among registered Democrats and Obama gets his advantage from independents.

• In South Dakota, a state with 15 delegates, ARG finds Clinton trouncing Obama 60% to 34%.

Whatever tomorrow's results, it is unlikely they will have a big impact on the nomination and even on what superdelegates think. The two states combined offer 31 delegates and the popular vote should not switch dramatically because of tomorrow's result as there should not be that many voters. However, even a single victory would allow Clinton to score a very rare upset. When is the last time a candidate benefited from a surprising victory? We have to go back to February, when few people were expecting that big a margin for Obama in Maine and Wisconsin and his victories in Delaware and Connecticut on February 5th were surprising. Overall, it is telling of how significant a lead Obama built in February that Clinton's 30%+ wins in WV, KY and Puerto Rico coupled with a suggestion of a coming upset could look so irrelevant to the nomination quest.

Should Clinton have a good night tomorrow, it could also impact her thinking process about whether she ought to withdraw from the race. Her campaign has sent conflicting signs in the past few days. First, Clinton has stated that she had not lost hope of convincing superdelegates that have already declared for Obama to change their mind as they are not pledged to any candidate even after they declared; Terry McAuliffe suggested that he was "hearing things." This is an essential argument if Clinton wants to justify her staying in the race past once Obama passes 2,118. Second, the campaign has kept the door open to contesting the legitimacy of the Michigan seating and the RBC's decision which they are suggesting they might take all the way to the convention.

On the other hand, there have been insistent suggestions that Clinton is looking to suspend her campaign this week, perhaps even endorsing Obama as early as this Friday. The Obama campaign is already in discussion with Clinton staffers about integrating them to his team, and Ben Smith suggests that Clinton's announcement could occur as early as tomorrow. Indeed, he notes that Clinton is organizing her election night party in New York City in a larger-than-expected facility to which she has invited her top donors, which could signal something a bit more significant than expected. Also, Marc Ambinder reports that Clinton staffers are being told to return their receipts by the end of this week, another sign that the campaign is preparing for the end.

If the superdelegate tsunami that will start once the primary season is over is as huge as Obama is hoping for, it would make it impossible for Hillary to remain in the race. There is only so many declared superdelegates she can hope to switch and a more satisfactory seating of the Michigan delegation would only net her so many additional votes. CNN reports that most of the 17 remaining uncommitted Senators will endorse Obama this week, after the end of voting, though Harry Reid should not do so. Note that Clinton won the support of two supers today (one from Louisiana and one from New York) while Obama was endorsed by four who count as three (as there are two from Michigan, apart from one from CT and one from VA).

In retrospect, the Democratic primaries have been very predictable, with most of the results since early February determined by demographic factors more than anything else. But Clinton's intentions have always been much harder to understand and even harder to predict, making it that much more difficult to foresee what will happen in the coming days. But there is no question that most people in the Democratic universe are now looking to put a close to the primary and they will do everything they can to bring an end to the Clinton-Obama storyline starting tomorrow night. If Florida and Michigan were holding re-votes tomorrow as once seemed very possible, June 3rd would be a much more climactic day and one in which Clinton would actually have a plausible path to save herself. But now even an unexpected Clinton triumph tomorrow should not change the race's closing dynamic.

Week-end polls: In case anyone had illusions about Clinton's June 3rd chances

The first poll of the Montana primary -- not a contest that was expected to ever be surveyed -- suggests that June 3rd should not allow Hillary Clinton to close the primary season on a high note. Mason-Dixon shows Barack Obama leading 52% to 35%, and there is every reason to believe that Clinton's road is as tough in South Dakota.

Naturally, these two primaries award very few delegates (31 combined, versus 55 in Puerto Rico two days earlier). But since Clinton's goal seems to be to find an argument to stay in the race as long as possible, there is no doubt that two harsh defeats on the last Election Night will not bode well for her campaign's rationale in the days following June 3rd, days in which the remaining uncommitted superdelegates are expected to pick their side at an increasing speed. DemCon Watch details this week's updates, and finds that Obama picked up 3 supers to Clinton's one (all were add-on, and Clinton's surprisingly came from Georgia).

Meanwhile, a list of general election polls were released today:

• First, Gallup's national tracking poll is noteworthy for it shows one of the largest differentials between Clinton and Obama's performance that it has recorded since the tracking started a while ago. Today, Obama trails 49% to 44% while Clinton leads 47% to 45%.

• Meanwhile, Mason-Dixon's Montana poll shows possibly tight races, though McCain is predictably starting ahead. He leads Clinton 50% to 39% and Obama 47% to 39%. Bush won 59% to 39% four years ago.

• In neighboring Nebraska, however, Research 2000 crushes Democratic hopes of picking up a few electoral votes with Obama's candidacy. McCain trounces Obama 57% to 29% (leading by wide margins in all congressional districts) and leads Clinton 58% to 28%. A Rasmussen poll and a SUSA poll released in the past few months showed much tighter results.

• Meanwhile, in California, an LA Times poll should send shills down Democrats' spine, as McCain is very close to both Democrats: 47% to 40% against Obama, 43% to 40% against Clinton. Two polls released Friday showed both Dems up double-digits.

• Finally, a North Carolina poll by Civitas has a tight race between McCain and Obama, with the Republican leading 44% to 39%.
  

The California numbers are significant, for if a series of polls in the next few weeks show the potential of a single-digit race, the Democratic nominee will be forced to spend resources to defend this large state with expensive media markets even if the GOP campaign does not attempt anything. Democrats can take no risk in California, as the loss of its 55 electoral votes would leave no road to the White House.

The Western states are also interesting, for it is a central part of Obama's argument of a different electoral map that states that have traditionally not been receptive to Democrats -- places like North Dakota, some congressional districts in Nebraska, Montana -- could warm up to him. Polls are telling a conflicting picture about this, as Obama has polled very strongly in some polls (in Alaska, Nebraska) but more poorly in some. All these states have very few electoral votes, so the loss/gain of one would not necessarily determine the election (though it could, as Al Gore learned in 2000).

In one last polling note, Research 2000 also conducted a survey of the Nebraska Senate race and found Mike Johanns leading Scott Kleeb by a wide 58% to 31%. A Rasmussen poll released last week found Johanns ahead 55% to 40%, a more promising picture for the Democrats. But this merely confirms what we already know: What was a very promising race at some point in the fall is now among the most difficult for Democrats, as Johanns is a very popular and well-known politician of a very Republican state. This is a rare congressional open seat in which the GOP looks to have saved itself through recruiting.