North Carolina and Nebraska Dems looking for a candidate, CA GOP looking to get rid of one

• Recruitment failures in North Carolina and Nebraska
  

Democrats are particularly unhappy with the state of the race in North Carolina. They believe Dole is very vulnerable, but they have been unable to find a strong candidate to oppose her after countless recruitment failures (Gov. Easley the most notable). Now, the only candidate in the race is investment banker Jim Neal. While a poll yesterday found him trailing Dole by only 15% and holding her under 50%, national Democrats are unlikely to pay much attention to a Dole-Neal match-up and want another candidate to jump in. At this point, any elected official would do the trick. And it looks like they might succeed, as state Senator Kay Hagan (who had passed on the race earlier) is reconsidering.

Meanwhile in Nebraska, Democrats are still recovering from Bob Kerrey's refusal to join the open seat race -- and trying to find another candidate. Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey would be their preferred choice, as he appears to be the only one that could make this race competitive (though he would definitely start as an underdog against former Governor Johanns). Today, the Omaha World-Herald reports that Fahey will decide within 30 days, but that he is not enthused at all by run. If Fahey declines, Dems would be left asking Steve Kleeb, a young democrat who ran a competitive House race in 2006. Kleeb would make the race interesting, but would hardly be a match for Johanns.

• Doolittle investigation stepping up

A few days after the first Republican congressman called for Doolittle to retire, the plot thickens in CA-04. The chief administrator of the House has been issued a subpoena of e-mails relating to Doolittle, in a sure sign that the investigation into Doolittle's ties to Abramoff is picking up steam. This would definitely give fodder to the Republican leadership that is trying to get Doolittle to retire. CA-04 is very Republican, so an open seat would favor the GOP. But Doolittle would surely lose his re-election race. Doolittle has said for now he will run again for sure -- but how much longer can he hold on in the face of these revelations?

• New Democrat in IL-06, one less in NM-01
  

Patricia Madrid, the Democratic nominee in NM-01 in 2006 who lost by 861 votes to Heather Wilson, will not run again in 2008. The former state Attorney General was rumored first for the open Senate seat, and then for the open House seat -- but she is staying out of it this cycle. It is unclear how much this hurts Democratic chances, as the party still has a strong candidate (Martin Heinrich) -- but Madrid is definitely the better-known and probably the stronger of the two. At least this means that the Democratic primary will be less divisive than at first thought.

Meanwhile, the DCCC is looking to compete in IL-06 against freshman Republican Peter Roskam. This was one of the most expansive races in 2006, as the DCCC wasted millions in supporting Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth who was running without the support of local activists. Roskam won with 51%. This time, the Democrats are fielding... another veteran, Jill Morgenthaler. This looks for now as a sure recipe for a replay of 2006. Morgenthaler was the Army's press contact during the Abu Graib scandal... not the best way for the DCCC to endear itself to local liberal activists.

New Mexico shuffle: Steve Pearce jumps in NM Senate race, opens up his Hous seat

Republican Rep. Steve Pearce is jumping in the New Mexico Senate open seat. This means that the Republicans will have a very competitive primary between the state's two Representatives -- Pearce and Heather Wilson, who declared for the seat the day after Pete Domenici announced his retirement. A poll taken by SUSA soon after found that Pearce was a much stronger election general candidate than Wilson.

Both Pearce and Wilson have their weaknesses in the race: Pearce is considered by many to be too conservative to win a competitive general election, and Wilson, more moderate, is tainted by her involvement in the attorneys firing scandal that likely pushed Domenici further towards the exit. Surprisingly, Hastert and Cheney are both already committed to the Wilson campaign.

That any of these weaknesses matter depends of course on who the Democratic nominee is. The only declared candidate right now is Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, who many view as too moderate and ultimately weak. Rep. Udall, who would be a favorite to win the seat, has decided to stay in the House - a big blow to Democrats. And today, former state Attorney General Patricia Madrid said she was staying out of the Senate race in which many thought she would jump. That leaves Democrats with one last option besides Chavez: Lieutenant Governor Denish, who has not yet announced.

This shuffle also has consequences in the House: Pearce will be leaving NM-03 and his seat will now be open. NM-03 leans Republican, but is not a deep red district either. This also means that two out of three of the state's congressional seats will be open in 2008. Democrats already have more than one candidate in the race, and the primary appears that it will be competitive between conservative Harry Teague and union-backed Bill McCamley.

Democrats have a much better opportunity in NM-01, and things are heating up there as well. In announcing that she would not run for Senate, Madrid hinted that she was looking at a House run. She was the Democratic nominee here in 2006 and lost the race by about 1000 vote after a disastrous last month of campaigning -- but she had been a rising star of the Dem Party before that. She would face a competitive primary, though, as Democrats already have serious candidates in the race - especially Martin Heinrich.

As for the Republicans in NM-01, their leading candidate appears to be Sheriff Darren White. He actually just released an internal poll of the race showing him leading the primary race and also the general election against Heinrich (51-33) and Madrid (51-39). Keep in mind this is an internal poll, so independent numbers should look very different once they're out.