Sunday polls: Shifts in the partisan make-up, and unlikely states to host tight races

Today's three presidential surveys come from states that are deemed unlikely to host competitive races but where these polls find some tighter-than-expected results. First and foremost comes Nebraska, a Western state which Bush had no trouble winning 2:1 in 2004 but which Barack Obama might have different thoughts about:

• SUSA finds McCain to be leading 49% to 40%, quite a dramatic drop for the Republican from past results.
  
• Very importantly, SUSA shows tight races in the 1st and 2nd congressional district. In the first, McCain edges Obama 44% to 43%. In the second, McCain is on top 48% to 43%. In the third, McCain is leading 57% to 33%.
  

Nebraska allocates 3 of its 5 electoral voters by district, and this is not the first poll to suggest that Obama might have a good shot at winning the first or second congressional districts, thereby complicating even further our electoral college calculations (by the way, expect the year's first electoral college ratings to be posted in a few days). This is also a sign of trouble for McCain in the Mountain West, as a number of states that are usually not even mentioned at the presidential level could host competitive races this year.

One note, however, about SUSA's series of presidential polls. SUSA's samples are consistently much more Democratic than the 2004 exit polls indicated. This is the case in this Nebraska poll, as the partisan breakdown is 44% Republicans and 38% Democrats while the 2004 exit poll found that 53% of voters were Republicans and 24% Democrats. This is not to say that SUSA's polls are too skewed towards Obama, for there is no doubt that the proportion of self-identified Democrats has considerably risen since the last presidential election and that there is a considerable enthusiasm gap between the two parties, making it credible that the partisan breakdown of this general election will be much more favorable for Obama than the one in 2004.

The fact that SUSA is registering this swing this consistently is amazing news for Obama's chances, for it is hard to see how he could lose the election if there anywhere near the 20% shift that this poll is suggesting. But whether SUSA is registering too much of a swing is open to debate, and it is indeed hard to imagine that there is this much of a change in partisan identification. Other polls are not necessarily finding this dramatic of shifts and it is important to keep in mind that SUSA's assumptions about turnout model, while they could be perfectly right, appear to be leading to results more favorable to Obama.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen released two general election polls of its own:

• First, it found a single-digit race in Louisiana, where McCain leads Obama 50% to 41% and Clinton 47% to 40%. McCain's favorability rating is superiot to Obama's, 55% to 45%.

• Meanwhile, Massachusetts looks Democratic as Obama leads McCain 51% to 38% and Clinton crushes him 60% to 30%.
  

Louisiana's numbers aren't surprising in the sense that the state used to be a battleground, with Bush prevailing over Al Gore by 8% in 2000. But the state has increasingly trended Republican since then, with Bush increasing his winning margin to 15% in 2004. Louisiana should not be the first Southern state to fall if Obama manages to make inroads in the region.

Massachusetts, meanwhile, has become somewhat of a puzzle: Why is Obama struggling to live up to the state's Democratic strength? While a 13% margin is certainly decent, it is underwhelming, especially when we consider that Rasmussen has consistently shown Clinton performing better here, suggesting that Obama is having trouble to catch on. More troubling have been SUSA's surveys, which have repeatedly shown Obama struggling in Massachusetts. The latest, released late April, showed Obama 2% ahead and that was actually an improvement from the March survey that had the two candidates tied.

Week-end polls: In case anyone had illusions about Clinton's June 3rd chances

The first poll of the Montana primary -- not a contest that was expected to ever be surveyed -- suggests that June 3rd should not allow Hillary Clinton to close the primary season on a high note. Mason-Dixon shows Barack Obama leading 52% to 35%, and there is every reason to believe that Clinton's road is as tough in South Dakota.

Naturally, these two primaries award very few delegates (31 combined, versus 55 in Puerto Rico two days earlier). But since Clinton's goal seems to be to find an argument to stay in the race as long as possible, there is no doubt that two harsh defeats on the last Election Night will not bode well for her campaign's rationale in the days following June 3rd, days in which the remaining uncommitted superdelegates are expected to pick their side at an increasing speed. DemCon Watch details this week's updates, and finds that Obama picked up 3 supers to Clinton's one (all were add-on, and Clinton's surprisingly came from Georgia).

Meanwhile, a list of general election polls were released today:

• First, Gallup's national tracking poll is noteworthy for it shows one of the largest differentials between Clinton and Obama's performance that it has recorded since the tracking started a while ago. Today, Obama trails 49% to 44% while Clinton leads 47% to 45%.

• Meanwhile, Mason-Dixon's Montana poll shows possibly tight races, though McCain is predictably starting ahead. He leads Clinton 50% to 39% and Obama 47% to 39%. Bush won 59% to 39% four years ago.

• In neighboring Nebraska, however, Research 2000 crushes Democratic hopes of picking up a few electoral votes with Obama's candidacy. McCain trounces Obama 57% to 29% (leading by wide margins in all congressional districts) and leads Clinton 58% to 28%. A Rasmussen poll and a SUSA poll released in the past few months showed much tighter results.

• Meanwhile, in California, an LA Times poll should send shills down Democrats' spine, as McCain is very close to both Democrats: 47% to 40% against Obama, 43% to 40% against Clinton. Two polls released Friday showed both Dems up double-digits.

• Finally, a North Carolina poll by Civitas has a tight race between McCain and Obama, with the Republican leading 44% to 39%.
  

The California numbers are significant, for if a series of polls in the next few weeks show the potential of a single-digit race, the Democratic nominee will be forced to spend resources to defend this large state with expensive media markets even if the GOP campaign does not attempt anything. Democrats can take no risk in California, as the loss of its 55 electoral votes would leave no road to the White House.

The Western states are also interesting, for it is a central part of Obama's argument of a different electoral map that states that have traditionally not been receptive to Democrats -- places like North Dakota, some congressional districts in Nebraska, Montana -- could warm up to him. Polls are telling a conflicting picture about this, as Obama has polled very strongly in some polls (in Alaska, Nebraska) but more poorly in some. All these states have very few electoral votes, so the loss/gain of one would not necessarily determine the election (though it could, as Al Gore learned in 2000).

In one last polling note, Research 2000 also conducted a survey of the Nebraska Senate race and found Mike Johanns leading Scott Kleeb by a wide 58% to 31%. A Rasmussen poll released last week found Johanns ahead 55% to 40%, a more promising picture for the Democrats. But this merely confirms what we already know: What was a very promising race at some point in the fall is now among the most difficult for Democrats, as Johanns is a very popular and well-known politician of a very Republican state. This is a rare congressional open seat in which the GOP looks to have saved itself through recruiting.

Sunday polls: A tough road ahead for Scott Kleeb

Once upon a time, Nebraska was among the most vulnerable Republican seats, ranked fourth on my October rankings. But that was before former Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey and Omaha mayor Mike Fahey announced they would not run for the seat left open by Chuck Hagel. Instead, in their primary last week Nebraska Democrats settled on Scott Kleeb, a young candidate who is very popular with the grassroots and the netroots. Republicans convinced their first choice, former Governor Mike Johanns, to jump in the race, setting up an unbalanced fight in which Republicans are heavily favored to prevail.

This is confirmed by a new Rasmussen poll that shows Johanns clearly ahead, Kleeb could give Republicans headaches if he really does everything right in the next few months:

• In the first poll from Nebraska's Senate race, Johanns leads Kleeb 55% to 40%.
• Johanns has a strong approval rating -- 65% (including 27% very favorable versus 56% for Kleeb (17% very favorable).

This does not warrant calling the race competitive, and Democrats have many opportunities that rank much higher, but I suspect the DCCC will at least push Johanns a little. When is the next time they will have a shot at this seat, after all? Kleeb's coming in at 40% is a strong enough showing to be built upon. After all, Kerry only got 33% in Nebraska in 2004. Rasmussen also polled the presidential race and found Obama surpassing Kerry's total as well:

• John McCain leads Obama 50% to 39%. Clinton trails by a larger 57% to 34%.
• McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of voters, Obama by 49% -- suggesting that he would have trouble getting that much closer to the Republican.

Nebraska is one of two states that awards its electoral votes by congressional districts. The second congressional district could potentially fall in the Democratic column if Obama holds his statewide margin around 11%. In 2004, Bush's winning margin in the second district was 11% smaller than his statewide lead.

Finally, the Minnesota Star Tribune released a new poll of the MN presidential race, bringing great news to Democrats in a state the GOP believes it can contest:

• Obama leads against McCain 51% to 38%. Clinton is ahead 49% to 40%.

Note that the two events Minnesota Republicans are counting on to wrestle this state away from the Democratic column -- McCain picking Governor Pawlenty as VP and the GOP convention in the Twin Cities -- will not impact the race for many more months. Until now, both sides have reason to believe in their chances in this state: MN has not voted for a Republican at the presidential level since 1972 but the state has becoming increasingly purple in the past few cycles, with Kerry and Gore posting two narrow victories.