Republicans quit congressional races, bringing mixed news for the GOP

Strange day of news in congressional races today, as it was marked by report after report that Republicans were not running for seats or were ending their campaigns. In two cases (NE-Sen, CA-04, though the latter is only a rumor), the news is good for Republicans; and in two (NJ-07 and NY-19) it is good for Democrats.

• Bruning exits the stage in Nebraska

Democrats thought they would have a great shot at the Nebraska Senate race when Hagel announced he would not run for re-election, and I ranked the seat 4th most vulnerable in the October Senate rankings. But everything has gone wrong for Democrats since then (the race was downgraded to 13th by November), and here is one more thing you can add to that list. Nebraska's Attorney General Jon Bruning was running in the GOP primary against former Governor Mike Johanns, and a bloody primary on the Republican side had become one of the last (faint) Democratic hopes of pulling an upset here.

But today, Bruning announced he was retiring from the race. Only 39, Bruning has plenty of time before him to upgrade (though there probably won't be an open Senate or governor's seat for a little while) and he was attracting ill-will of the party by making life difficult for the candidate the party wants to coronate. Johanns is now the certain Republican nominee, and can prepare for the general election... He will face only token opposition there, except if Democrats manage to convince their third choice, Steve Kleeb to run. And even then they face very low odds.

• Doolittle on his way out?

This is the one item on this list that is only a rumor as of yet, but one that is becoming persistent. A California blog is reporting that Doolittle might finally have decided to retire. CA-04 has become one of the GOP's worst nightmares. It is a very Republican seat that the party would have little problem holding as an open seat but Doolittle is so ethically challenged that he has practically no chance of winning a re-election race if he persists in running. The GOP wants to believe he will retire, but Doolittle has been very firm in saying he is going nowhere -- which has made CA-04 one of the only "Lean Takeover" seats in my House rankings. But if this rumor is confirmed the GOP would breath a huge sigh of relief.

• No more candidate in NY-19

Republicans had made freshman Rep. John Hall one of their top targets and considered candidate Andrew Saul one of its top recruitment coups next year. Saul was one of the challengers who had raised the most money as of the end of September, and his presumed strength had led many to classify Hall as very endangered in this Republican-leaning district.

But Saul was reported today to have dropped out of the race, leaving the GOP without a challenger in what they consider a top priority! Saul did not give a specific reason but to cite "personal reasons." This is obviously a huge blow to Republicans, who must now hurry to find a top-tier challenger to keep this competitive. And even if they do, they have lost the half-million Saul had already raised and will start off as a significant disadvantage. Hall just got a lot more safer tonight.

• No one wants to run in NJ-07

The seat Ferguson retired from yesterday is turning out to be yet another recruitment nightmare for Republicans. The two candidates I mentioned yesterday announced they were not running within 24 hours. First, Tom Kean, who many considered the strongest possible candidate (I had already reported this yesterday).

Today, former Rep. Tom Franks says he will not run for the seat. He was quickly followed by a third Republican I did not mention myself but who was on everyone's list, state Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick. Bramnick also declined to run, saying there was more a Republican can do in Trenton than in Washington right now.

This is the same scneario that played out in OH-15 and in IL-11, where Republicans just were not going any top-tier candidates in open seats they had to defend. They managed to find someone in OH-15, but not really in IL-11. NJ-07 is a very competitive district under normal circumstances, so the GOP has to do some great recruitment effort in the next few days or weeks to salvage the situation.

• At least one Republican says he is staying!

Rumors had been circulating that Rep. Tom Reynolds (from NY) might be retiring next year, which would create yet another headache for the GOP. Though his seat is not the tightest of districts, Republicans are already dealing with enough problems as it is. But Reynolds's camp said today that he has no intention to retire and he will run next year.