Congressional Republicans lose a candidate in New Jersey and gain one in Louisiana

• Kennedy running in LA-Sen
  

Louisiana's state Treasurer John Kennedy finally jumped in the Louisiana Senate race. He switched parties at the end of August, which was basically a confirmation that he was intending to challenge Senator Mary Landrieu. Since then, he won re-election for his seat in October (without facing any opposition though he ran ads seeking to prepare the ground for his Senate run).

In officially declaring his candidacy, Kennedy also released the results of a poll he commissioned with Zogby. The poll shows him in the lead, 45% against 38% for Landrieu. This is the first poll I believe we are seeing of the Louisiana race. Take it with a grain of salt for two reasons: (1) It is an internal poll, and (2) Louisiana has become notoriously difficult to poll since Katrina, and very few surveys are released from the state. However, there is no question that a 38% showing for an incumbent is bad news no matter the circumstances. 50% is the threshold under which an incumbent can expect a very tough race -- and not breaking 40% is obviously a sign that things could go wrong very fast.

The race is currently ranked 5th on my Senate rankings as a "toss-up." There have been conflicting signs as to how this race might play out: GOP Bobby Jindal and Democrat Mitch Landrieu (Mary's brother) overwhelmingly won Governor and LG in October; last week, the runoff for the state legislature yielded conflicting messages once again, as Democrats held to majorities in both the House and the Senate but endured losses in both. Kennedy appears to have a very good at picking-up this seat, but we shall see how the race develops -- and how other polls see the race.

• Allen out in NJ-03

Meanwhile, the GOP is continuing to have recruiting trouble in open races. Republicans were touting the candidacy of state Senator Diane Allen in NJ-03, left open by Rep. Saxton's retirement. But Diane Allen bowed out today, saying she would not run for the seat. Now, Democrats have their highly touted recruit running (state Senator John Adler, who was already a candidate before Saxton announced his retirement), but the GOP will have to scramble to find a candidate who can keep the seat in Republican hands.

NJ-03 is starting to resemble IL-11, a competitive district where the filing deadline has already passed. There, Democrats also got their first choice in (the senate Majority Leader) while the GOP's favored candidate decided to stay out. It goes without saying that Democrats could make some major gains next November if they pick-up these districts that keep opening up and where the GOP is struggling to get its act together.