Poll roundup: Clinton loses her grip on Pennsylvania

For the first three weeks of the Pennsylvania campaign, Hillary Clinton not only maintained but even slightly expended her lead. But since then, it has been Ohio and Texas all over again: Poll after poll show the race tightening. And though there has only been one survey for now showing Obama with the lead, ARG released one this morning showing a tie between the two Democrats:

• Clinton and Obama both come in with 45%. Clinton's 16% edge among white voters is offset by Obama's 89% among back voters.
• ARG's previous poll released late March showed Clinton ahead 51% to 39%, a quite dramatic drop within two weeks.

Needless to say Clinton needs to win Pennsylvania to even stay in the race until the next context, let alone have any chance of taking the nomination. An Obama victory in the Keystone state would at once undermine many of Hillary's central arguments, in particular that Obama is too weak among key groups (registered Democrats, blue-collar voters) to be competitive in the general and that the late campaign is favoring Clinton with voters coming to realize they prefer her.

Do not write off Clinton's chances in Pennsylvania, of course. In the run-up to Ohio, I explained that the fact that we were talking about who would win that contest already meant Clinton would lose since she didn't need to just win Ohio but get a double-digit victory. But when all was said and done Hillary pulled out a 10% win. The trouble for her is that she needs even more than that in Pennsylvania to truly make her points, so if polls confirm that there now is a serious contest for the win rather than for the margin it is hard to see how Clinton can recover.

Meanwhile, two North Carolina polls suggest that the state's giving itself to Obama by a massive margin (Rasmussen suggested 23% yesterday) is not a foregone conclusion:

• McClatchy shows Obama leading comfortably, 45% to 36%. 20% of Clinton supporters (shall we say "only 20%" at this point?) said they would vote for McCain if their candidate did not get the nomination.

• Meanwhile, a Raleigh Observer poll was also realeased showing Obama ahead 32% to 26% -- as you can see undecideds were really not push by the pollster here.
  

North Carolina's primary seems to be the type of contest Clinton needs in Pennsylvania, one in which what is at stake is the margin without much suspense about the winner. Polls are showing an Obama victory anywhere from high-single digits to the 20% range. Even if Clinton is alive to fight on May 6th and even if she gets satisfying results in Indiana, she needs to make sure to cut her losses in North Carolina -- and she particularly needs to focus on winning the blue-collar white vote, the loss of which would undercut her central electability argument.

Finally, Rasmussen released two general election polls yesterday showing mixed results for both parties -- but mainly underscoring John McCain's strength:

• In Iowa, one of the rare states in which there is a consistent electability difference between the Democrats, Obama edges out McCain 46% to 42%, but the Republican crushes Clinton 51% to 36%.
• In Tennessee, however, it is Clinton who looks stronger, though both Democrats are trounced by McCain: Clinton is led 52% to 38% and Obama 58% to 31%.

Iowa will likely be one of the most important battlegrounds of the fall campaign after it handed George Bush a very narrow victory in 2004; Tennessee is less important in the logic of a general election campaign given that it did not even win for Al Gore in 2000. Let's note, however, that past polls showed that Tennessee could be in play: A survey in late February showed Clinton trailing McCain by only 4%, while Obama was crushed by 16%; an even earlier poll back in November showed tighter margins for both Democrats.

Wednesday polls: General election toss-ups

Four general election surveys were released today, with very little consistency in the issue of the electability gap between the Democrats, but all showing John McCain in a strong position -- much stronger than his former GOP rivals appeared to be a few weeks ago:
Wednesday

• First, Quinnipiac released a general election survey which shows both Democrats barely edging out the Arizona Senator -- 44-42 for Clinton and 42-40 for Obama -- in a state either will have to win come November.
• This poll is very interesting because it underscored just how different the two candidates' core constituencies are. Among Democrats, Clinton gets 80% and Obama only 69%! Among independents, Clinton trails by 2% and Obama leads by 5%. Both Obama and Clinton are weak in one of those groups and they will have to be strong if they want to build a solid majority.


• In Ohio, a University of Cincinnati survey shows Obama edging out McCain 48% to 47% and McCain leading Clinton 51% to 47%. SUSA's recent poll from Ohio has shown Democrats in a slightly stronger position.


• Next, a poll from Tennessee gives a clear edge to John McCain who crushes Obama 53% to 37%. Clinton runs much better than Obama here and makes the race competitive: 45% to 41%. Until recently, Clinton used to systematically run ahead of her Democratic rival in Southern states.

• In North Carolina, finally, a new poll shows McCain in a strong position, crushing both Democrats by double-digits, 48% to 36% against Hillary and 46% to 36% against Obama. PPP released a poll from NC a week ago that showed the Republican ahead by 5% against both Democrats.

No earth-shattering numbers here. The question this early in the campaign is in what states will the general election campaign really engage in, what states look competitive with a McCain candidacy? These numbers from NC and TN -- the kind of states in which some of the Republican candidates looked particularly weak -- should offer the GOP some comfort that they won't have to put just as much defense here, though there is little doubt that the map will be significantly more expanded than it was in 2004 and that we should get used to the fact that many states that were on no one's radar screen then will host some very competitive races this year.

Morning polls: More proof that the 2008 elections will be national

As I noted yesterday, it appears that there will not be many states that will be safe for either party come 2008. With Clinton tying the GOP in traditionally red states like Texas, Kentucky and Virginia, and with Rudy running very strong in Democratic bastions like Connecticut and New Jersey, we are in for a national election.

Today, a new poll from Tennessee indicates that the state might very well be competitive in 2008, which would be a huge surprise given how much it went away from Dems in the past two cycles, even voting against for native son Al Gore in 2000. In this new poll:

• Fred Thompson runs the strongest, which is normal given that he is from here and represented the state in the Senate. But even he beats Hillary in single-digits: 50% to 42%. Against Obama, Thompson leads 55% to 34%.
• Hillary is very competitive against Rudy Giuliani, who she ties at 43% and against John McCain, trailing 45% to 42%.
• Obama runs weaker, trailing Giuliani 44-36 and trailing McCain 44-35. Notice that in both cases the Republican does not attract more votes than against Clinton, but that it is the Democrat who attracts more vote -- a function also of the benefits of being a polarizing figure.

This poll confirms the results of a Rasmussen poll taken in September, that also has Clinton very competitive against Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, so this is not an isolated result. No doubt, Democrats would be delighted to be able to compete in Republican turf like Tennessee. We should probably get used to thinking of 2008 in very different terms than 2004. Also, numbers like this call into question the concerns of some Democrats that Clinton at the top of the ticket would doom their chances in down-the-ballot races. But in fact, Clinton appears much stronger than expected in the South, and the GOP should be more worried about the effect Rudy would have on its chances in Southern states.

• Clinton climbs back to national leads

Rasmussen had shown Hillary Clinton climbing into comfortable leads nationally against Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson, only to find Giuliani rising fast two weeks ago and taking a surprising lead against the Democrat. No more: The latest Rasmussen poll has Clinton back ahead.

She leads both Rudy and Thompson by the same margin: 48% to 42%. There have been many polls this past week that have had Clinton with a 6 points lead against Rudy, so that seems to be where the race is stabilizing and the average of all national surveys. This will likely change a lot in the coming months, but it is a striking change since the beginning of the cycle when Clinton was systematically down double-digits, in a sign she was not electable. Also, Clinton and Giuliani have roughly the same favorable rating: 47-50 for Hillary, and 47-47 for Rudy.