11.24.2007

New Hampshire review -- with a detour through Australia

News has been slow the past few days, but other candidates did not have the political week-end off. Australian voters were called to the polls today for parliamentary elections, and Bush lost one of his most loyal allies. Not only did conservative Prime Minister John Howard's coalition lose its majority in the lower house of Parliament, but Howard lost his own re-election race in his district to the Labor Party candidate. The next Prime Minister will be Labor's Kevin Rudd, a man often described as an uncharismatic policy-man but who managed to humiliate the energetic Howard.

Some seats have not been called yet, but right now the Labor Party has 83 seats versus 58 for the conservative coalition. One of the major consequences of this will be Australia's Iraq policy, as Rudd could withdraw the Australian contingent from Iraq. Another key issue is Kyoto, that was never ratified by Howard. Rudd made it a campaign issue and is likely to push for the treaty's ratification which would leave the Bush Administration even more isolated on the international stage on global warming issues.

Meanwhile, the American presidential candidates were back on the campaign trail today -- and they made some news as well.

  • New Hampshire heating up: Giuliani's endorsement and Romney's money
Rudy Giuliani got a very useful endorsement from the Mayor of Manchester, Frank Giunta, who had unexpectedly stunned an incumbent Democrat in 2005. Not that any endorsement ever carries that much weigth, but Manchester is the state's biggest city and Giuliani clearly hopes this will help him strengthen his argument. Guinta, who is only 35, compared his experience in Manchester with Rudy's: "I can identify with [Giuliani] on those things that are most important to people, making the city safer and stronger and continuing a vibrant economy."

Meanwhile, we learned the other day of just how much Mitt Romney is spending in New Hampshire. Remember, he rose to the top of the polls in the spring by going on air early much before any rival joined him and getting himself known. Now, reports are indicating that Romney spent $100,000 on ads throughout October, and that became $200,000 at the end of the month. The Politico's Jonathan Martin points out that this means "Romney 'round the clock, at the rate of more than one ad an hour, 24 hours a day, seven days a week."

How can Romney possibly have this much money to spend? He has been a great fundraiser... but has not particularly distanced Rudy Giuliani. Then what explains it? Romney is a multi-millionaire and is ready to spend as much money of his as is needed... and it shows. A lot of this is clearly coming from his own pocket, and he has already made some big donations to his own campaign. He has been able to blanket Iowa and New Hampshire with ads thanks to this, and bought his way to poll leads.

But can't this backfire, if the media starts accusing Romney of only surviving thanks to his own money? Will he not give the impression that Romney is weak and unable to fund-raise the money he needs? This is the best part for the Romney campaign: The detailed FEC filings for the fourth quarter (which ends on December 31st) are due on January 31st! That means that Romney has no obligation to disclose how much he has donated to his campaign and how much of his own money the campaign has spent until after all the early states have voted... much too late for anything bad to happen to Romney because of the disclosure. By then, the Romney campaign believes he will either be out of the race anyway because he failed to win Iowa and New Hampshire, or he will have sweeped the January races and already emerged the inevitable nominee.

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