Friday polls: Nevada looks surprisingly tight

• Is Nevada the purplest state?

A new Nevada poll is possibly the tightest survey I have ever seen. In twelve possible match-ups between the 7 top candidates, no one has a lead of more than three points, and 6 match-ups are within one point. And all are well within the margin of error. Have you ever seen such consistency across twelve general election match-ups?

• Hillary trails Rudy 45% to 44%, ties McCain at 44%, and leads Romney 45% to 44% and Thompson 45% to 43%.
• Obama leads Giuliani 45% to 44%, Romney 46% to 44%, and both McCain and Thompson 46% to 43%.
• Edwards is up 45% to 44% on Giuliani and Romney, up 44% to 43% against McCain, and 45% to 43% against Thompson.
• In the Democratic caucus of January 19th, it's Hillary ahead at 45% followed by Obama at 20% and Edwards at 12%.
• In the Republican race, Giuliani is up with 29% on Romney's 22%. Thompson is at 15%, and McCain at 8%. Ron Paul comes next at 7% (he was at 1% in August).

Nevada has only 5 electoral votes, so its importance in the general election is limited; but it could prove an omen of how things develop in the West. And remember in 2004, Nevada was the last state to be called before Ohio.

As for the caucus numbers, Nevada will play a crucial role this year since it is scheduled to vote on January 19th. It will be the first contest for Democrats after New Hampshire on the 8th (since Michigan will only feature a Clinton-Dodd showdown) and before South Carolina on the 29th. This could be a major opportunity for Clinton to regroup if she stumbles in Iowa (and New Hampshire). In the Republican race, this is the only early state in which Giuliani has a consistent lead... but it is very small, and certainly not solid enough to withstand Romney's surge if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire.

• New Rasmussen numbers confirm volatility

The new Rasmussen general election numbers confirm the volatility of the general election, as Giuliani and Clinton have been trading leads for a while now. Two weeks ago, it was Clinton up by 6. Today, Rudy has a 46% to 42% lead. Against Thompson, Clinton has a smaller than usual 46% to 44% lead. Clinton's unfavorability rating is back up at 52% in this latest poll, so maybe the constant Clinton-bashing by all candidates, both Democrats and Republicans, is starting to have a toll on the New York Senator as no other candidate is attacked nearly as much as she is (Democratic candidates rarely mention the Republican front-runners, though the latter relentlessly bash Clinton).