Assessing the Republican race on this last calm day before the mad rush to Iowa

At this point, the Republican race is turning out to be - contrary to tradition - much more unpredictable than the Democratic contest. At least we know that the latter comes down to Iowa at this point. For the GOP, every candidate has a different idea of what states will matter... and there are at this point 5 candidates with a good shot at getting the nomination -- with Ron Paul yet another candidate to keep an eye on, as he is unlikely to get very far but he could still have a major impact on the race.

Since this has been a rather slow week-end of news, and since it is unlikely such a break on the campaign trail will occur again until the Iowa caucuses, this might be a good moment to quickly review these 5 Republican candidates, their strategies, and what they need to accomplish in the early states. In order of their likelihood to win the nomination:

1. Mitt Romney

Romney is the most likely nominee, though his position is more precarious than it was just a few weeks ago. The former governor's strategy has long been centered on winning Iowa and New Hampshire in quick succession, and thus building unstoppable momentum. The final January calendar helps Romney, since the third contest will be in Michigan, the large state in which Romney is probably the strongest. And polls suggest that he is surging in South Carolina, making his victory there inevitable if he wins IA, NH and Michigan first.

But his campaign is running into trouble in the state that he seemed the strongest in -- Iowa. With Mike Huckabee gaining stunning momentum in recent weeks, Romney has been left struggling to keep his first place. If he loses in Iowa, the story coming out of the caucuses will be his failure, and he will probably lose much of his advantage in later states, starting with New Hampshire. Those conservatives who think that Romney is not sincere in his ideological conversion are also increasingly making life difficult for the former governor by questioning his stance on things like abortion. With Romney ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire, he has become the prime target, and it shows as Giuliani has had to face less heresy charges lately than Romney.

And we have to mention the last huge advantage Romney has: money! He has been spending a lot of his own money in the race, and will likely continue doing so as much as is necessary until January. He will blanket every early voting state with ads and pay with his own pocket if need be. And the best part for Romney: He will not have to disclose how much of his own money was spent until January 31st, until it would be too late for anyone to care.

2. Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani is still far ahead in national polls, and he has a clear strategy to the nomination: "Survive" the January contests until February 5th, where he believes he can count on assured victories in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut which could give him a delegate lead no matter what else happens. But the question for Giuliani is how does he survive the first voting states? He needs (1) solid enough showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, which means third and second, (2) a win in Florida, and (3) a muddied race.

The problem is that all of these conditions seem increasingly difficult to meet: (1) He is in low double-digits in Iowa, tied with Fred Thompson, and McCain is threatening to overtake him in New Hampshire; (2) His once mighty Florida lead has melted to a small advantage that could be easily overtaken by another candidate if he has momentum or if Giuliani seems too weak, and (3) if Romney gets in a roll starting in Iowa, the race will be all but muddied come February 5th... So Giuliani's best hope is that Huckabee wins the Iowa caucuses, which would be a huge blow to Romney and would throw the nomination wide open... which would guarantee that Giuliani could take control on February 5th.

Giuliani should be careful though of not becoming too much of a joke when it comes to his ideological contortions. He has escaped feeling the wrath of conservative activists and has managed an almost-flawless transformation from moderate New Yorker to conservative candidate, but he often says things that sound like a caricature of the flip-flopper. Check his recent explanation for why he preferred Richard Nixon even though he voted for McGovern in 1972: "I actually remember saying to myself, 'If I was a person really deciding who should be president right now, I'd probably vote for Nixon, because I think the country would be safer with Nixon."

3. Mike Huckabee

There really is a huge gap between Romney/Giuliani and the rest of the field. Huckabee has clearly the biggest buzz right now due to his rise in national polls and in surveys of Iowa where he is contesting first place to Mitt Romney. His momentum started in August when he placed second in the Ames straw poll. But questions remain: (1) How does Huckabee overcome the hostility of fiscal conservatives who are set against him? (2) Where does Huckabee go even if he does win Iowa? He has much less money than the other candidates, and very little organization in other states. He seems particularly non-existent in New Hampshire, and Michigan is too big a state for him to put together a quick campaign. South Carolina could be an ideal place for him to follow-up due to the large number of value voters, but will his rivals let him get anywhere there when they'll have 16 days after the Iowa caucuses? Huckabee needs to broaden his campaign beyond Iowa fast if he wants a shot at the nomination.

4. Fred Thompson

Fred Thompson was presented as the savior the Republican Party needed throughout the spring and summer -- no one can follow up on such hype. Thompson no longer polls a strong second in most national polls; his original plan was probably to contest Iowa seriously, but that now is out of the question. He consistently comes in sixth around 4% or 5% in New Hampshire. And his lead in South Carolina is gone -- though he still hangs on in the fight for first place. Thompson is still not out of the running, but he needs to concentrate on a Southern strategy that would make him win South Carolina and keep him an option all the way to February 5th. But that does require him to seem viable after IA and NH, so he will have to improve his numbers there; and he also does not appear to have enough good-will and enough resources to contest as many states as he needs in February. Testifying to his frustration, Thompson entered in a rant against Fox News today, blasting them for consistently undermining his candidacy -- and it is true that the media has been harsh on him.

Thompson is now trying to recenter his campaign on appearing the most conservative of the candidates. He was at the forefront of the debate this week-end, criticizing Romney and Giuliani for their record on abortion and gun rights. But to the extent that Thompson recovering in Iowa would come at the expense of Huckabee, it could end up helping Romney more than anything else.

5. John McCain

McCain is ranked fifth here, but his chances are much better today than they were a few weeks ago. He regularly appears to be the strongest general election contender of his party, which he is trying to use as an argument on the campaign trail; he also has recovered in national polls, and is back up in New Hampshire, where he usually polls second in a tie with Giuliani. McCain's problem is that he is entirely dependent on New Hampshire at this point. If he fails to win there, he is practically out of the race and there is nowhere else he can hope to recover. For a McCain NH win, Romney would first have to crash there -- which could very well happen if Romney loses Iowa. That would open up space in New Hampshire for Giuliani and McCain to fight it out... and are voters paying attention to McCain anymore, or has his opportunity passed? And even if he wins here, where does he go next? He might have a shot at the Michigan primary, but he won both NH and MI in 2000 -- it did not get him the nomination. McCain needs to score better than 7 years ago in South Carolina, and that does not seem very likely for now.