Great news for Romney: Michigan stays on January 15th... and we now wait for New Hampshire

Michigan's January 15th primary had been invalidated by a judge on a technical note, and an appeals court had upheld the measure. The parties had appealed to the state Supreme Court, but it appeared that the only way for Michigan to keep its primary on January 15th was for the Legislature to pass a new bill ASAP (i.e. in the next week) correcting the problems identified by the court.

But the Supreme Court today reinstated the primary in a 4-3 decision. And so the date is set. Michigan will vote on January 15th, four days before South Carolina and Nevada -- and thus will be the third state to vote. Some Democrats still want to move the date forward by holding a caucus to bother New Hampshire further... but that seems a bit unlikely (though we will know very soon). But Republicans at least are now a sure thing on the 15th.

This is a great relief for the Romney campaign. Michigan is the best big state for Romney: he is already known here given that his father was Governor. The latest poll out last week has him in a statistical tie with Rudy Giuliani. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney can thus expect to get a boost big enough to insure a Michigan victory... and get a major state under his belt going into South Carolina.

Romney's strategy is predicated on winning as many states as possible in January to build unstoppable momentum, and the Giuliani campaign was hoping that (1) Iowa and New Hampshire would not be important enough states for Romney to look to invincible, and (2) that the early momentum of a dual win would have subsided in the 11 days between New Hampshire and South Carolina.

But this ruins those calculations: (1) Michigan is certainly a major state... and it would be difficult for Giuliani to argue he is "surviving January" if Romney wins here, and (2) there is now a week between NH and MI, and then four days between MI and SC. The Romney momentum of a 3-0 streak would definitely be felt in South Carolina... and beyond. (This is all assuming, of course, that Romney holds on to his Iowa lead, and he is being increasingly challenged in the caucuses).

As for the Democrats -- assuming that the primary is not transformed into a caucus (and don't underestimate Senator Levin's hatred of New Hampshire) -- this will not change too much given that only Clinton and Dodd have kept their name on the Michigan ballot after the DNC punished the state's "rogue" primary. At least Clinton could get some good news if she loses Iowa. There is, however, one huge question mark left: The state Assembly is considering passing a bill that would reinstate Obama, Edwards and all the others on the ballot! No one would campaign here... but maybe it would make a likely Clinton victory worth more.

With Michigan now almost settled, all eyes turn to New Hampshire's Gardner. Will he be satisfied with the week between January 8th and the Michigan primary and finally schedule the New Hampshire primary? He likely won't make a move until Michigan Democrats figure out whether they're going for a caucus, but if all things stay the same there the threat of a December primary appears to have been avoided -- and Gardner would probably end up choosing January 8th.

The calendar chaos is finally settling down; but with 6 weeks to go before voting season begins, we still are not sure what the exact modalities of New Hampshire and Michigan are!