11.22.2007

Quick rundown of Thanksgiving polls, from Washington and South Carolina

A quick morning post on Thanksgiving, and running down some polls I have not gotten to yet.

  • Washington all over the board
Washington did not pose too much problem to Kerry in 2004 -- but a new SUSA poll it could be much tighter this time, depending on what candidate the GOP runs:

  • McCain edges out Obama 47% to 46%; Rudy Giuliani also runs close to Obama trailing him 48% to 46%.
  • Clinton beats both Republicans more comfortably, 50% to 43% against Rudy and 52% to 43% against McCain.
  • Both candidates crush the other Republicans: Clinton gets 57% to 37% against Romney and 57% to 35% against Huckabee.
  • Obama leads Romney 49% to 40%, and Huckabee 54% to 34%.
We rarely hear much about Washington on the presidential level, but with 11 electoral votes it is a major prize, and probably a must-win for Democrats. As for discussion of electability between Clinton and Obama, check out my post from yesterday. While I did say Obama typically is stronger in the West, I did not mean the coastal states with a long Democratic tradition, but states at the Southwest (Colorado, Arizona, Nevada...). Clearly the electability talk often does not amount to much.

  • Clinton ahead in South Carolina primary
Rasmussen came out with a new poll from South Carolina yesterday, and Clinton maintains the double-digit lead she has been enjoying since the end of the summer. She gets 43% compared to Obama's 33%. Edwards is far behind in the state he won in 2004, at 11%.Among African-American voters, the group Obama and her are fighting over the most dramatically, the two are tied, 46% for Obama to 45%.

Remember, South Carolina is much more important on the Republican side. For Democrats, the primay is at the end of January, the same day as Florida and ten days after Nevada. The winner could get a significant boost -- but the GOP primary in the state is really a win-or-die scenario for many of the candidates.

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