Morning polls: Clinton leading in yet another Kentucky poll

New support for the hypothesis I tried out the other day that Clinton polls better than her rivals in traditionally red states (whereas the advantage is generally reversed in the Southwest). A new poll from Kentucky released this morning by SUSA shows Hillary Clinton winning all four of her match-ups in a state Bush won by 20% in 2004:

• She is ahead 48% to 47% against McCain, 48% to 44% against Rudy Giuliani, 54% to 39% against Romney and 55% to 36% against Huckabee.
• Obama polls much more poorly, losing 52% to 38% against Giuliani, 44% to 43% against Romney, and a massive 56% to 34% against McCain. He does edge out Huckabee 44% to 42%.

There have been many polls of Kentucky at this point in the past few months, and all have shown a very similar result. The first poll that had Clinton had seemed like an outlier -- but it has since been confirmed, and cannot be easily dismissed. However stunning it might be, Republicans will have to prepare for Kentucky and its eight electoral votes emerging as a very unlikely battleground state in 2008.

A lot of this is due to the local situation in Kentucky, which is more toxic for the GOP than in other places due to the ethical trouble the state party was in that led to the ouster last month of Governor Fletcher. Now, Senator McConnell is feeling the heat -- and Democrats are sure to go after him with everything they have if Republicans continue to appear this strong.

Clinton is strong in red states because she rallies Democrats against her, something Obama cannot do. The reason she runs so well appears precisely to be the polarization of the electorate -- something that is much less prevalent in the Southwest or even the Midwest. And the key test for her will be whether she can break 50% and get that extra few points needed to carry these red states. And she does reach 50% against Romney and Huckabee, testifying to the fact that there is not an anti-Clinton majority here.

• Biden in toss-ups!

In a sign of just how difficult this election is for Republicans, a new Rasmussen poll has Joe Biden able to tie much better-known Republican candidates. He trails Rudy Giuliani only 42% to 40%, and ties Mitt Romney at 39%.That the top GOP candidates cannot muster a clear lead against a little-known distanced in the polls Democrat indicates that the electorate is just unwilling to go for Republicans again. Though the GOP's hope to victory will be to create a foul, and make the alternative unacceptable, which is exactly what Bush did with Kerry in 2004.