Morning polls: Arkansas could go blue, and Huckabee grabs a nation lead

• Arkansas a prime battleground

Democrats are very competitive in Arkansas, Bill Clinton's former home-state:

• Mike Huckabee, the state's Governor until 2006, grabs 48% to Clinton's 42%. He crushes Obama 54% to 35%.
• Both Democrats lead against Romney and Giuliani. Clinton demolishes Giuliani 49% to 35% and 48% to 34% against Romney. Barack Obama leads only 42% to 39% against Rudy Giuliani.

Arkansas went for Bush twice but by smaller margins than people might remember: nine points in 2004 and only five in 2000 (yes that is right, if Gore had won Arkansas he would have won the presidency). Nonetheless, it is surprising to see both Obama and Clinton competitive here, as the previous poll that had Clinton leading had been attributed to the fact that the Clintons are from Arkansas. Now that Obama leads Rudy at all, it clearly puts Arkansas in the list of battleground states.

• Rasmussen tracks some shocking national numbers

Rasmussen releases national tracking numbers every day, and I clearly choose to skip reporting most of them. But the numbers today are truly shocking in both the GOP and Democratic race.

• In the Republican race, Mike Huckabee is now ahead with 20%, with Giuliani at 17%. McCain and Romney are at 13%, with Thompson at 10%.
• In the Democratic race, Clinton has sunk to 34%, 10 points ahead of Obama at 24%. Edwards gets 16%.

These are the lowest total ever recorded by Rasmussen since it started releasing these in July for both Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton... This is also the first national poll that has Mike Huckabee ahead. What Romney failed to do in months of campaigning Huckabee has done within a week. The last month of campaigning is turning out to be much more fascinating than anyone expected it to be.

• Romney at least keeps a massive lead in New Hampshire

The WaPo/ABC's latest New Hampshire poll has Mitt Romney far ahead at 37%, folowed by McCain at 20%, Giuliani at 16% and Huckabee at 9%. Ron Paul is at 8%.

Romney has built enough of a lead to at least hope he will not lose it overnight if he fades in Iowa. But his lead is clearly very weak: A majority of Romney voters say they could change their mind, and McCain has placed himself in an ideal position to overtake Romney if that were to happen. Imagine that, Huckabee wins Iowa and McCain wins New Hampshire. Who would have thought that could happen a few weeks ago only?