3.14.2008

Friday polls: General election polls show McCain up in Ohio, down in California

For all the electability talk, the one state which will undoubtedly go from "lean Democrat" to "lean Republican" depending on the identity of the Democratic nominee is... Arkansas! Clinton would be favored to carry the state's 6 electoral votes, and Obama would start as the clear underdog. This is obviously due first and foremost to Clinton's home-state advantage, more than to her strength, but the importance of 6 electoral votes (and in an unlikely place like Arkansas) should not be understated. We all know where 6 electoral votes would have gotten Gore...

The University of Central Arkansas released a general poll yesterday that confirmed this disparity -- also observed in SUSA's survey last week:

  • Clinton is leading McCain 51% to 36%, while McCain leads Obama 43% to 27%.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen released two surveys from the very crucial states of Ohio and California. After a string of Pennsylvania polls showing McCain leading Clinton and Obama, Democrats would have liked some good news out of Ohio, but it's not for today:

  • In California, at least, both Democrats are ahead but with differing margins: Clinton is leading by 7% only, 46% to 39%, while Obama gets more than double a lead: 53% to 38%.
In the day's last poll news, Gallup's tracking poll has both match-ups completely tied nationally... It can't get much tighter than that.

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posted by Taniel at 8:26 PM

5 Comments:

  • Interesting polls - so for all those who said because Clinton won California Obama would have trouble!! He has a bigger lead. Clinton won OH but both Democrats have problems.

    Of course these polls are months away from November so things will change but just because you win the primary does not mean you will win the state compared to your opponent.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 15 March, 2008 09:07  

  • I can't believe next weeks polls will show the Democrats even competeing, after Spitzer, Ferraro and the hate mongers on the Obama team..., America has to now see the Democratic party as losers. They can ot even manage the elections in Florida and Michigan. Now how can they run an entire country?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 15 March, 2008 11:40  

  • The Democrats have to be reeling. First their New York Governor has to quit because he cheated for 7 years with prostitutes. Their leading presidential candidate having trouble remembering how much money an indicted felon raised for him and the awful racist, anti-american comments his pastor of 20 years made from the pulpit in the church Mr. Obama attended faithfully. I see a Republican blow-out victory much like Reagan/Mondale coming in November.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 15 March, 2008 20:38  

  • "Their leading presidential candidate having trouble remembering how much money an indicted felon raised for him and the awful racist, anti-american comments his pastor of 20 years made from the pulpit in the church Mr. Obama attended faithfully. I see a Republican blow-out victory ..."

    It would be nice if it were true, since Obama is manifestly unqualified and Clinton is a grasping avaricious crone, but didnt someone in 2004 say the media was worth 5 points for the Democrats? Well, make it 10 points if its Obama. Everytime someone criticizes Obama, its deemed beyond the pale. And McCain doesnt fight the media, he goes along with it.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 16 March, 2008 00:10  

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