Tackling Hillary Clinton's core constituencies

With voting rapidly approaching, the Obama and Edwards campaign have to confront a huge problem: Clinton is strong in general, but she is looking particularly untouchable among certain core constituencies that have not flinched in their support of her, even during her slip-ups in the polls at the beginning of November. Look at the Marist New Hampshire poll from ten days ago, one of the three to show her sliding in the early primary: Her lead has collapsed by 14% among men, but has held steady among women.

With Hillary winning about 45% of the female vote in most polls, Obama and Edwards will have to find a way to bring her down. CNN reported yesterday that Edwards was upping its effort at women voter outreach, most notably with former NARAL president Kate Michelman. "Women are not a monolithic vote, nor are all women going to vote just because we have a woman."

The Clinton campaign, however, is ready... and it just got a huge ally to help its effort in Iowa. Emily's List, which usually stays out of primaries but that has rallied behind Clinton this time (which is logical given that its entire program is to get pro-choice women elected), has decided to invest heavily in Iowa, targeting first-time women voters. Emily List's is planning direct mailings to voters, tours and... ads on Google for non-political queries to get women who are not interested in the caucuses but in "eggnog" or other holiday searches to see an ad for Clinton and remember that the caucuses are coming up (this will be a challenge for any campaign... how to convince Iowans to go vote in a January night two days after new year's).

With Clinton moving to protect its base (which has not shown signs of going anywhere anyway), the task is urgent for the rival campaigns. For even if Hillary loses in Iowa, if her support among women in New Hampshire remains steady she will probably be able to sustain her Iowa loss -- which would be truly unprecedented.

South Carolina Myrtle Beach News, meanwhile, notes that Hillary has massive support among South Carolina's white Democrats. And despite what one might think, the white Democrats are now much more liberal than African-American voters, a reversal from a few decades ago but an unsurprising one given the southern realignment of the past 25 years. Indeed, polls show Obama and Clinton tied among black voters, but Obama trailing badly, behind John Edwards, among whites.

Turnout will likely be 50-50 between blacks and whites, so as long as Clinton can maintain herself in a tie with Obama among African-American voters (and for now she is often ahead of him even in that group), how will she lose the South Carolina primary? And before even sinking of contesting Clinton's (and Edwards's) edge among white voters, Obama has to figure out a way to come on top among black voters -- for a failure there would doom his chances in the state.