How vulnerable is Louisiana's Landrieu? Yesterday's local runoffs provide arguments for both sides
How vulnerable is Senator Mary Landrieu in Louisiana? Since Mary Landrieu has never been very strong in her past elections (she barely eeked out a weak opponent in 2002), Republicans are confident they will make this race one of the top-tier Senate contests of 2008. But in the absence of any polls, this question has been hotly debated on the basis of external evidence.
Last month, Bobby Jindal's more than comfortable win in the first round of the governor races provided an indication that the state had drifted very Republican in the past few years, a shift that had started before Katrina (Vitter was the first GOP Senator from the state since Reconstruction, and was elected in 2004) but that was accelerated by the hurricane.
A second test occurred yesterday: the runoff for the legislative races for the state Senate and the state House. Democrats held both chambers, and the GOP was seeking to seize control of them to finish off the transition of the state from its Democratic roots to its new Republican allegiance.
The state Senate was set to remain in Democratic hands after last month's first round. Only four seats featured a Dem v. Rep runoff yesterday. The GOP failed to make any inroads yesterday, as the two parties split the four races. The state Senate thus remains in Democratic hands 24 seats to 15 seats.
The House, however, was up for grabs. There were 16 seats going into a two-party runoff, and 13 of them were held by Democrats. Republicans needed to pick-up a net 7 to win control of the chamber. And they won 5. The 16 seats split 8-8, and the Democrats retained a bare majority 53 seats to 50. (Note: Two of these House seats the Republican won by the smallest of possible margins: one with 9 votes, another with 26 votes. So the GOP had a good night because of a handful of votes, and expect recounts that could change the outcome).
On the one hand, this is good for Democrats: They kept control on a night the Republicans could have taken the House, so they can't possibly be that far behind. On the other hand, Republicans still had a very good night, picking-up a lot of seats and getting very close to a majority when they were in a significant minority position.
So these elections provide arguments for both sides in the debate on Landrieu's vulnerability: Yes, Louisiana is shifting rapidly Republican. But the shift might not be quite strong enough to topple a two-term incumbent who has a decent approval rating (54-42 in the latest SUSA poll) and has raised millions of dollars already. Last month's election had a similar dual verdict, as Jindal's triumph was balanced by the overwhelming victory of Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu, Mary's brother.
State Treasurer Kennedy will likely make a very strong candidate for Republicans. But the GOP seems to expect an easy race here, based on the performance of Jindal last month and on the confidence that Louisiana has turned its back on Democrats. There is little evidence to back up that LA has become that Republican. Landrieu might very well end up in a very competitive race, but we shall have to wait and see.
Last month, Bobby Jindal's more than comfortable win in the first round of the governor races provided an indication that the state had drifted very Republican in the past few years, a shift that had started before Katrina (Vitter was the first GOP Senator from the state since Reconstruction, and was elected in 2004) but that was accelerated by the hurricane.
A second test occurred yesterday: the runoff for the legislative races for the state Senate and the state House. Democrats held both chambers, and the GOP was seeking to seize control of them to finish off the transition of the state from its Democratic roots to its new Republican allegiance.
The state Senate was set to remain in Democratic hands after last month's first round. Only four seats featured a Dem v. Rep runoff yesterday. The GOP failed to make any inroads yesterday, as the two parties split the four races. The state Senate thus remains in Democratic hands 24 seats to 15 seats.
The House, however, was up for grabs. There were 16 seats going into a two-party runoff, and 13 of them were held by Democrats. Republicans needed to pick-up a net 7 to win control of the chamber. And they won 5. The 16 seats split 8-8, and the Democrats retained a bare majority 53 seats to 50. (Note: Two of these House seats the Republican won by the smallest of possible margins: one with 9 votes, another with 26 votes. So the GOP had a good night because of a handful of votes, and expect recounts that could change the outcome).
On the one hand, this is good for Democrats: They kept control on a night the Republicans could have taken the House, so they can't possibly be that far behind. On the other hand, Republicans still had a very good night, picking-up a lot of seats and getting very close to a majority when they were in a significant minority position.
So these elections provide arguments for both sides in the debate on Landrieu's vulnerability: Yes, Louisiana is shifting rapidly Republican. But the shift might not be quite strong enough to topple a two-term incumbent who has a decent approval rating (54-42 in the latest SUSA poll) and has raised millions of dollars already. Last month's election had a similar dual verdict, as Jindal's triumph was balanced by the overwhelming victory of Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu, Mary's brother.
State Treasurer Kennedy will likely make a very strong candidate for Republicans. But the GOP seems to expect an easy race here, based on the performance of Jindal last month and on the confidence that Louisiana has turned its back on Democrats. There is little evidence to back up that LA has become that Republican. Landrieu might very well end up in a very competitive race, but we shall have to wait and see.
posted by Taniel at
1:01 PM
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