Morning roundup: Udall looks strong in New Mexico, Clinton not so much in Florida

• Call it a pick-up

SUSA released a poll of the New Mexico Senate seat yesterday, and Tom Udall looks strong to pick-up the seat for Democrats, as he has big leads against his primary opponent and against Republicans:

• In the Democratic primary, Udall beats Marty Chavez, Mayor of Albuquerque, 62% to 32%. Heather Wilson has the edge in the Republican primary against Steve Pearce (I believe this is the first poll we have seen of the GOP side), 56% to 37%.
• Udall has double-digits leads against Pearce (54% to 40%) and against Wilson (56% to 41%).
• But Chavez trails Pearce 52% to 42% and ties Wilson 47% to 46%.

New Mexico is currently ranked fourth on my latest Senate rankings, but that was before Tom Udall jumped in the race and made the race start leaning Democratic. This definitely has the potential of tightening up, but with so many seats to defend and in a financial hole, how much resources will the GOP be willing to spend here?

• Florida leans GOP

Meanwhile, Republicans got some rare good news from a swing state poll, as all four candidates - yes, even Romney - handily defeat Hillary Clinton in Rasmussen's new Florida survey. And in even more of a twist, Rudy Giuliani is the weakest general election contender:

• John McCain defeats Clinton 48% to 38%. Fred Thompson leads her 47% to 38%, compared to Romney's 46% to 39%. Surprisingly then, Giuliani is "only" ahead 46% to 41%.
• In the Republican race, Rudy Giuliani is holding steady at 27%, but Mitt Romney has jumped up 8 points at 19%, ahead of Fred Thompson's 16% (down 7) -- very much in line with his national decline.
• The Democratic race is much less interesting, as Clinton leads 42% to Obama's 17% and Edwards's 16%.

This is uncommon in Florida polls, as many polls (here is the latest SUSA survey) have shown Clinton leading in the state -- more consistently than, say, in Ohio. But the latest Quinnipiac poll had Democrats weakening in the Sunshine state against the GOP because of the primary controversy (the DNC has punished the "rogue state" and Florida Dems are sueing the national party, as the candidates are now avoiding the state). Could this be a second confirmation of that? If so, it proves what many people have said for weeks: Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot by punishing the major battleground states of Michigan and Florida.

• Bill Clinton's value
  

Make sure to read the new Huffington Post/WNYC article I wrote and that was published this morning on Bill Clinton's value to the Hillary Clinton campaign. The first few paragraphs:

Pitchman Bill Clinton's e-mail promised contributors to his wife's campaign a chance to watch the Oct. 30 debate with him: "You, me, a TV, and a bowl of chips." Within five days, Hillary pulled in $170,000 in chunks of $200 and less, more than three times what she raised in the preceding five days. "Oh, we had a blast," David Monterosso, one of three chosen to watch the debate told Hillary, in a telephone call videotaped by the campaign. "And I made sure your husband ate some carrots."

In a similar ploy, a "Let's Do Lunch" e-mail earlier in September offered a select few a meal with the New York senator. Her offer, made during a slower time in the fundraising cycle, didn't match the money brought in by her husband, though a comparison of the five-day periods before and after shows a significant spike in small donations, from $23,000 to $121,000.

The campaign's decision to send out Bill's e-mail during the last days of the third quarter, when campaigns trot out their biggest fish, underscores that Bill is, in many ways, as powerful - and sometimes, more so - than Hillary on the campaign trail. Whether he would be an asset or a burden to his wife's campaign provoked talk at the start of the 2008 campaign. But with President Bush's deepening problems making the memories of the 1990s appear rosier than ever, the former First Lady's edge can be tied in very measurable ways to her husband's own popularity.

In a joint project by WNYC and OffTheBus, a team of researchers examined recent Federal Election Commission filings, traced connections of top Hillary backers to the Clinton Administration, and reviewed the minutia of Bill Clinton's schedule. They uncovered the unprecedented benefits of a former first lady tapping into her husband's connections, though the enthusiasm she generates among the Democratic base is so pronounced that much of it can only be attributed to her own appeal.

The wannabe First Man's presence on the campaign trail netted significant boosts in media coverage and in fundraising, but his value extends well beyond his direct campaigning. In fact, the roots of Hillary's campaign go deep in the electoral and fundraising machine the Clintons built in the 1990s, with support the power-couple enjoyed then carrying over to Hillary's presidential effort. Neither the Clinton campaign nor the Clinton Global Initiative answered our queries seeking their responses to this piece.