Stunner in the House, as Rep. Ferguson retires in NJ-07

Yet another very competitive Republican-held House seat opened up, and this one is perhaps the most surprising of them all (and we've had a few surprises already): Rep. Mike Ferguson announced he would not run for re-election in New Jersey's 7th congressional district.

Ferguson is only 37, and there were no indications he was looking to get out. He was first elected in 2000. Ferguson won an extremely tight race last year, beating state Assemblywoman Linda Stender 49% to 48% -- a result tighter than most people expected. This might have weighted on his choice, as Stender is now back for another run and has already raised $240,000 in the third quarter alone, guaranteeing that the 2008 contest would be at as competitive as the last cycle. Ferguson also probably did not want to serve in the House minority for a long time as it appears he would -- though given how young he is he could probably have waited it out.

This opens up a very competitive seat. Bush did win 53% to 46% in 2004, but that was a year in which Bush made big gains in the state. He got 49% in 2000, so this district is very much swing. So the first question is whether another Democrat will jump in the race and challege Stender in the primary, as an open seat significantly boosts Democratic chances of picking-up the district.

Republicans, however, will no doubt have a solid candidate, and they already have a slate to choose from. The most likely competitor appears to be State Sen. Tom Kean Jr, who lost his Senate race to Menendez last year by ten points after leading the incumbent in September/early October. Kean was strong until the end of that race, so expect him to keep this race competitive. And there are other GOPers that will probably be interested in this seat.

And the House GOP has to be very nervous at this point. If even members like Ferguson are retiring... what are the next two months going to bring? It is starting to get late for massive congressional departures, but there are still plenty of representatives that are rumored to be considering retiring. And notice how many of them are from swing districts -- a sign that vulnerable GOP congressmen are not looking forward to running a very tight race next year.

Whatever hope the GOP had of recapturing the House has been destroyed by the number of competitive seats that have opened up: AZ-1, OH-15, OH-16, NJ-07, IL-11, NM-1... and the list goes on. The GOP will be lucky to break even among these toss-up open seats, exactly the kind of open seats that Democrats pretty much sweeped in 2006.

Update: Well, the surprises keep coming in New Jersey, as Kean has already announced he will stay out of the race. That still leaves the GOP with some good options, but this has to be a disappointment. Interesting that Kean would pass on a good opportunity to rise to the House a year after he wanted to go up to the Senate. Either he wants to run statewide soon (though he could very well have done that as a congressman) or he does not want another bruising race that could this time really end his career so soon after last year's loss.