Presidential diary: The Religious Right still divided, and yet another tightening New Hampshire poll

• National Right to Life not so much behind Thompson

The Thompson campaign was much relieved last week when it was endorsed by National Right to Life. It was rapidly sinking in polls, and its opponents were getting most of the social conservative endorsements -- a major blow since Fred Thompson entered the race precisely to be the conservative candidate. Some speculated that this was the beginning of Thompson's rebirth, though my take was that this endorsement only confirmed the division of the Religious Right and thus was first and foremost good news for Rudy Giuliani.

Well, today comes news that Iowa's chapter of Right to Life is refusing to follow suit and is staying neutral in the GOP primaries! Since it is the state organization that would do the campaigning, sending volunteers out to help Thompson out, and not the National Right to Life itself, this removes the biggest gain Thopmson was going to have from the endorsement -- and makes it a merely symbolic (though still valuable) gesture.

This is obviously also good news for the Huckabee campaign, who is hoping to get a big part of the anti-abortion vote behind him. Right to Life's endorsement was deemed particularly bitter for the former Arkansas Governor, as he is the one who no doubt has the most staunchly pro-life record. By the way: One big reason that was mentioned for why NRL rallied behind Thompson and not Huckabee was that the latter is not deemed electable. With the latest polls showing Thompson no longer winning SC and stuck at 4% in New Hampshire, Huckabee almost appears a better bet at this point.

• Not as bad as Iowa, but still a decline in New Hampshire
  

Add one more to the list of polls showing Clinton down in the early states. Though it is certainly not as bad as yesterday's Iowa poll in which Obama took the lead. In WMUR's new New Hampshire poll, Hillary Clinton leads with 36% to Obama's 22% and Edwards 13%. Richardson is now in a statistical tie for third, at 12%.

Two months ago, it was 43% to 20%, quite a mighty lead, with Richardson at 6% (there are a few polls out there that have the NM Governor back in double digits in early states). Not a collapse, but a lead shrunk from 23% to 14%, which is certainly not insignificant. This is the fourth poll in the past two weeks showing the same phenomenon.

If Hillary loses Iowa, as is looking increasingly possible (probable?), she will have to switch it around extremely quick to keep on to her New Hampshire lead. And the biggest lead she has on the morning of January 3rd, the more likely she'll be to not see it all melt away by the morning of January 4th. The 23 point leads of September/October certainly made her campaign feel at ease about what could happen in the caucuses But with this decline, Clinton has to pay attention to New Hampshire -- perhaps even more than to Iowa. For a win here would allow her to erase some of the momentum loss she'd suffer if she stumbles in Iowa