11.17.2007

Presidential diary: Robert Novak evokes possible smear, and the campaign heats up

A very unlikely controversy has erupted this Saturday in the Democratic race -- but it has the potential to all become really ugly, reminding us that the election is nearing rapidly and things are getting more intense. And it all comes from the first news item of Robert Novak's week-end column in the New York Post:

Agents of Sen. Hillary Clinton are spreading the word in Democratic circles that she has scandalous information about her principal opponent for the party's presidential nomination, Sen. Barack Obama, but has decided not to use it. The nature of the alleged scandal was not disclosed.

The report is very vague and appears barely sourced, which is typical of Novak's style. Novak has reported numerous things that have not quite proven right (though he has tremendous conections and often gets phenomenal scoops), and we could have expected candidates to ignore this latest column, especially given how vague it is. But the Obama campaign surprisingly chose to issue a long statement slamming Hillary Clinton -- in a sign they might be worried about soon being swift-boated. Their strategy: Make this part of their politics of hope v. politics as usual argument.

In the interest of our party, and her own reputation, Senator Clinton should either make public any and all information referred to in the item, or concede the truth: that there is none. She of all people, having complained so often about ‘the politics of personal destruction,’ should move quickly to either stand by or renounce these tactics.
I am prepared to stand up to that kind of politics, whether it's deployed by candidates in our party, in the other party or by any third party. The cause of change in this country will not be deterred or sidetracked by the old ‘Swift boat’ politics. The cause of moving America forward demands that we defeat it.

The Clinton campaign rejected Novak's report... and used the opportunity to point out to Obama's inexperience:

Once again Senator Obama is echoing Republican talking points, this time from Bob Novak. This is how Republicans work. A Republican leaning journalist runs a blind item designed to set Democrats against one another. Experienced Democrats see this for what it is. Others get distracted and thrown off their games. Voters should be concerned about the readiness of any Democrat inexperienced enough to fall for this.

This is all a very surprising controversy, and testifies to the increasing tension of the Democratic campaign. The Obama campaign must be frustrated it missed an opportunity to make Clinton slip up even more at the Las Vegas debate, and time is pressing for them to make something happen. But why publicize Novak's column further? Maybe they want to insulate themselves from attacks by already framing them as nothing else than swift-boating. But we've got to wonder if any voter will be moved to blame Clinton because Robert Novak (of all people) is reporting she might have some stuff she is not using... Every candidate does opposition research, and Obama's campaign certainly does too.

The Clinton campaign is happy to let things stand as they are at this point, so even if Robert Novak's report is true, they have nothing to gain from publicizing that "scandalous information." Barack is not a threat for now, so they might as well sit on any negative material they have -- though they certainly might be tested to use it if Obama makes a move in Iowa and becomes a much more threatening competitor.

  • Calendar Chaos
Meanwhile, the primary calendar is still in chaos, and we're in mid-November. An appeals court upheld the invalidation of the Michigan primary of January 15th (because of a technical problem with voting lists), and has thrown that state's contest into further disarray. Now, either the state legislature will pass a bill in the next week fixing this -- and keeping the primary on January 15th -- but they would have to move fast; or the two parties settle on non-primary contests (caucus, convention), but when would those be?

The Democratic primary was dead anyway since all candidates but Dodd and Clinton had removed their name from the ballot. But this could really mess up the Republican contest: Mitt Romney was to gain a lot from it, as Michigan is one of his best "large states" (his dad was governor there) and an ideal place in which to capitalize on the momentum he would gain from a double Iowa-New Hampshire victory. Michigan gone, it means that the next major contest after New Hampshire will be... South Carolina on 19th. That would give 11 days to Romney's rivals to recover from New Hampshire losses, and South Carolina is probably one of the harder states for Romney to win.

This also means that the date of the NH primary is in doubt... again. Secretary of State Gardner appeared to be moving towards a January 8th date if Michigan stayed on the 15th. But Democrats might now attempt to move even more forward if they hold a caucus... and that could once again push New Hampshire into December.

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