Rep. Hastert on his way out; will Rep. Carson follow?
It did not take long after I first mentioned his name this morning for GOP State Rep. Jon Elrod to announce his candidacy in IN-07 against incumbent Rep. Carson. This is a big get for Indiana Republicans as they are trying to make the most Democratic districts of Indiana (Kerry carried it with 58%) an unexpectedly competitive race in 2008. Carson won by 8 points against an underfunded challenger in the last cycle, and she has had to battle heavy health problems over the past few years that have taken her away from her job and from the campaign trail.
Republicans see her as very vulnerable, as she likely is, and believe Elrod is the ideal challenger. After all, he won his legislative seat last year by upsetting an incumbent in blue territory... Democrats are now likely to pressure Carson into retiring, as this is one of those rare seats that the incumbent party could have a better chance of holding if it opens up.
Another seat that is about to open up: IL-14. Former Speaker Dennis Hastert has already announce he will not run for re-election, and it was long certain that he would resign before his term was up, setting up a potentially explosive special election. The major question was when Hastert would exit the stage, as the timing of a special election could make the whole difference. The Illinois Governor could set the general election for February 5th, which is the day of the Illinois presidential primary. Democrats believe Illinois turnout will be very high on their side given the candidacy of Barack Obama, and dream of a take-over in IL-14 on the basis of stronger turn-out. Haster was said to be very aware of this danger and postponing his retirement accordingly.
Well, we will soon know what is going on, as Hastert is set to announce his retirement tomorrow on the House floor. He will also say when his decision will be effective, namely what day will he actually resign. Governor Blagojevich can schedule a special election only after Hastert's official retirement, so that will make the whole difference in whether the special election can be on the 5th or not. Stay tuned.
Meanwhile, in New Mexico, Heath Haussamen reports that internal polling by Steve Pearce shows the GOP Senate primary pretty much a 50-50 affair. That is welcome news for Democrats who are starting to worry that Chavez will make the Democratic primary very ugly. At least both parties will have contested contests that will keep them busy.
Republicans see her as very vulnerable, as she likely is, and believe Elrod is the ideal challenger. After all, he won his legislative seat last year by upsetting an incumbent in blue territory... Democrats are now likely to pressure Carson into retiring, as this is one of those rare seats that the incumbent party could have a better chance of holding if it opens up.
Another seat that is about to open up: IL-14. Former Speaker Dennis Hastert has already announce he will not run for re-election, and it was long certain that he would resign before his term was up, setting up a potentially explosive special election. The major question was when Hastert would exit the stage, as the timing of a special election could make the whole difference. The Illinois Governor could set the general election for February 5th, which is the day of the Illinois presidential primary. Democrats believe Illinois turnout will be very high on their side given the candidacy of Barack Obama, and dream of a take-over in IL-14 on the basis of stronger turn-out. Haster was said to be very aware of this danger and postponing his retirement accordingly.
Well, we will soon know what is going on, as Hastert is set to announce his retirement tomorrow on the House floor. He will also say when his decision will be effective, namely what day will he actually resign. Governor Blagojevich can schedule a special election only after Hastert's official retirement, so that will make the whole difference in whether the special election can be on the 5th or not. Stay tuned.
Meanwhile, in New Mexico, Heath Haussamen reports that internal polling by Steve Pearce shows the GOP Senate primary pretty much a 50-50 affair. That is welcome news for Democrats who are starting to worry that Chavez will make the Democratic primary very ugly. At least both parties will have contested contests that will keep them busy.
posted by Taniel at
3:14 AM
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