In case we forgot that Mitt Romney is the front-runner in early states...

Want to know who is the front-runner of a race? Take a look at who is being aimed by the most nasty tricks! And today, Mitt Romney appears to be the victim of the first push poll of the cycle in New Hampshire!

A company based in Utah is calling voters in New Hampshire in calls that start off like polls but soon devolve in negative messaging about Mitt Romey and his Mormon faith (this is called a push poll because it is not message testing; it is a massively disseminated smear campaign). The call also reportedly says positive things about John McCain -- though McCain is rigorously denying that he has anything to do with this and his campaign asked the NH Secretary of State to investigate this (the calls would be illegal since they do not mention who is paying for them).

What this tells us: (1) Romney is going to come under increasing attack in Iowa and New Hampshire in coming months, and (2) his Mormonism is something his Republican rivals think will hurt him among conservatives. It is coming up often, and expect a full-blown campaign to discredit him based on his faith, especially in South Carolina.

And if you need further confirmation of where things stand in the early states, here is a new Rasmussen poll of the GOP race in... Iowa. Yes, Iowa again:

• Mike Huckabee is ahead once again, but Mitt Romney has a massive lead against him today: 29% to 16%. The other candidates are close behind, and stronger than usual: 15% for Giuliani and 14% for Thompson. McCain is at 6%.
• Among voters who are certain that they will vote, Romney's lead is smaller: 26% to Huckabee's 18%.

And in another piece of good news for the Romney campaign, a Michigan primary poll has him statistically tied with Giuliani, 28% to 25%, with Thompson at 13% and McCain at 12% in the state he won against Bush in 2000. Why is this good news? Michigan votes on January 15th (well, it's supposed to... a judge invalidated the primary a few days ago, so it could all become even more chaotic), and it is the one big-state in which Romney is very strong -- look at Florida, California... Romney is at best rising there, but still far from Rudy. But his dad was Governor of Michigan, and he is well-known there, which explains why he runs strong. If Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire in the two weeks before MI, you can pretty much be sure he will win the primary here as well thanks to the winner's boost. (Clinton leads the Michigan ballot 49% to 15% for Obama... but since she and Dodd are the only two candidates on the ballot, this is not a very useful finding).

• General election poll from Iowa

Iowa general election polls are always more useful than other states: Deficit of name recognition are much smaller in this state since every candidate is there campaigning for the caucuses, so it is easier to draw comparisons between candidates. And the bottom line of this new SUSA poll: Obama is surprisingly stronger than Clinton, and McCain is the most solid Republican.

• Clinton leads Giuliani 47% to 43%, Romney 49% to 43%, and Huckabee 49% to 43%. But she trails McCain 48% to 44%.
• Obama is remarkably stronger. He has a double-digit lead against Giuliani (52-39), Romney (53-39) and Huckabee (56-35) and even wins against McCain outside of the margin of the error (50-42).

Remember though: McCain is consistently the strongest GOPer in state polls, while Obama and Clinton go back-and-forth... which makes it harder to draw a conclusion in the Dem race. But this poll is a significant boost to Obama's electability argument -- so we will probably see it in his campaign memos.