Tuesday polls: Romney now rising in national polls

• Rasmussen and ARG show Romney on the rise

Mitt Romney has long since been leading in Iowa and New Hampshire. But he had for now been unable to capitalize on his success in early states in national surveys, where his lack of name recognition left him stuck in double digits. But two new polls out today could mark the beginning of a new era in the Republican race:

• The new ARG poll has Rudy Giuliani leading at 25%, but Mitt Romney has risen to an all-time high of 21% (I believe I have never seen him this high in any national poll). Romney is also second for the first time. Fred Thompson is at 17%, McCain at 12% and Huckabee at 6%. One more noteworthy development: Ron Paul's rise to 4%!
• The Rasmussen daily tracking numbers confirm this development. Today, Giuliani is at 26% followed by Romney at 17%, McCain at 13%, Thompson at 12% and Huckabee at 11%. Ron Paul has risen to 5%. This marks the first time in the Rasmussen tracking polls that Romney is second -- he had long since been stuck behind McCain and then behind Thompson.

This is great news for the Romney campaign. One of their main worries is how much of a boost they would get from Iowa and New Hampshire if they started off so far behind in other bigger states, especially given the national voting day of February 5th. But if they are already in a position of overtaking Giuliani before early voting even starts, that puts them in an ideal position. Also, it allows them to eliminate the Thompson threat which was seen for a time as threatening the Romney campaign.

ARG also has numbers for the Democrats, and Hillary Clinton fans will be happy to learn she has stabilized and is holding a massive lead once again after the decline of the past two weeks: She leads Barack Obama 46% to 21%, with John Edwards lagging at 11%. In the 9 national ARG polls taken since March, this is Edwards's lowest result... and Clinton's highest!

• Ohio remains the ultimate swing state
  

Quinnipiac just came out with a new general election poll from Ohio, the crucial swing state of the 2004 season that might very well play the same role this time around. It shows that the state is a complete toss-up, with John Edwards and John McCain the strongest candidates of their respective parties:

• In the markee match-up, Clinton edges out Rudy 44% to 43%. This is an improvement for Giuliani, who trailed 46-40 in October and 47-40 in September.
• Giuliani also ties Barack Obama 41-41. But John Edwards manages to hold a comfortable lead, leading Giuliani 46% to 40%.
• John McCain is the only Republican who defeats Hillary 46% to 42%. But Clinton has comfortable leads against Thompson (48-38) and Mitt Romney (47-38).
• But the most interesting result might very well be this: For all the talk of Clinton having high negatives, Quinnipiac finds that Rudy Giuliani is just as rejected by Ohio voters. 41% of respondents say they would "never vote for Hillary," and 39% say the same about Giuliani!
  

This is nonetheless bad news for Democrats, who had emerged out of September and early October with healthy leads against Republicans in national polls and in most state surveys from swing states. Ohio especially looked to be good terrain for Democratic pick-ups; but most polls since then have shown the results tightening in Ohio, but also in places like Florida and Pennsylvania, underscoring that this election will be as close as the previous ones.

• Missouri toss-up as well

The same is true in Missouri. Three weeks ago, a SUSA poll had Clinton with comfortable leads against her Republican opponents. Today, SUSA comes out with a new poll from Missouri, and there are no more comfortable leads:

• Led by 7 in October, Rudy Giuliani now edges out Clinton 45% to 44%.
  
• Clinton does hold on to a lead against Romney (47-44), Huckabee (49-43), and the tighest advantage against McCain (47-46).
• Barack Obama runs a bit better. He leads Giuliani 46-43, Romney 48-41, Huckabee 49-41, and 46-45 against McCain.

Missouri is not on the must-win state of Democrats, but it was nice to see that they were ahead in such a Midwestern state that had gone away from them in previous cycles. But all polls over the past week have shown that every single state in the 2008 election appears to be close.