Waiting for the Las Vegas fireworks

A few hours before the Las Vegas debate hosted on CNN, and the focus is once again on the Democratic primary. Actually it does not seem to have ever really left the Democratic field since the Philadephia debate on October 30th. And what a two weeks this was, especially for Hillary Clinton who found herself slipping in polls, attacked by all candidates and struggling to find a coherent response on immigration.

Yesterday, Hillary Clinton attempted to turn the page on the biggest story out of the Philly debate, and she disappointed a lot of people who were heartened by her willingness to take a risky stand in defense of Spitzer's plan to give driving licenses. Clinton announced that, contrary to what she had seemed to imply two weeks earlier, she was now against any such plan. Of course, that she announced this after Spitzer declared he renounced pushing for the plan drew negative reactions from the rival campaigns who got to portray Hillary as flip-flopping on the issue one more time.

Hillary apparently calculated that the general election risk was too huge, as the GOP is already preparing to use this issue against Democrats and as polls suggest that even a majority of Democrats strongly disapprove of such plans. And in a truly shrewd move, Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer managed to draw a sharp contrast with Obama the very same day Hillary flip-flopped on the issue: "It's unfortunate that the other campaigns are employing hot rhetoric, but there are basic differences between the candidates: Sen. Clinton would not give driver's licenses to undocumented people, Senator Obama would."

It will be interesting to see whether Clinton will now press this issue even more in the primary to discredit Obama and hurt him among anti-immigration Iowa Democrats. More likely is that she will try to stay as far away from the issue as possible, but Phil Singer's comment is surprising enough that we probably have not heard the last of driver licenses for illegal immigrants in the Democratic primary.

A poll from Fox News to give us a last picture of where things stand before the debate:

• In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton leads 44% to Obama's 22%. Edwards lags behind at 12 %.
  
• In general election numbers, the strongest Republican is John McCain, who trails Clinton by only a point 46% to 45%. Clinton leads Giuliani 47% to 43%. She has a bigger lead against Fred Thompson 49% to 40%. Her biggest lead comes against Mitt Romney, 50% to 37%.

And since the debate is happening in Las Vegas, CNN's new Nevada poll is particularly appropriate. Rudy Giuliani edges out Hillary 47% to 46%, while Clinton leads against Mitt Romney 51% to 42%.