Congressional diary: Preparing for special elections

• IL-14: Timing is key

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert confirmed that he was retiring before the end of his term in a speech on the House floor attended by most lawmakers Thursday. Haster did not say, however, when he would actually resign -- and that could make all the difference in deciding which party wins the special election. The GOP starts off favored given the district's red lean, but Democrats are confident they can make this a race, especially if the election is on February 5th. That day is the Illinois presidential primary, and Democrats expect very high turnout given the candidacy of Barack Obama, the state's Senator. But Hastert is evidently aware of this, and many speculate he will not effectively leave the House until the beginning of 2008, which could make it too late for the Governor to schedule an election on February 5th.

Both parties will also first have to settle primaries. The GOP has two strong candidates in state Senator Chris Lauzen and Jim Oberweis, who ran in the gubernatorial primary last year. Democrats will decide between businessman Bill Foster and Laesch, their nominee from 2006.

• OH-05: Is Latta bruised enough?

First, though, there are two special elections coming up on December 11th, both in very conservative districts. Democrats are hoping that they might make something happen in OH-05 given how divisive the primary was last week. Bob Latta emerged as a bruised Republican nominee, and an internal poll for his campaign was just made public. Bob Latta leads 50% to Robin Weirauch's 36%. This is a large margin, but it is still a weak showing for a Republican given how conservative the region is. Look for the DCCC to conduct some polling here and see if it's worth pursuing the race.

• NE-Sen: Will Kleeb get in, and will it make a difference?

And in some Senate news, will Democrats get their third wish in Nebraska? Bob Kerrey and Mike Fahey both declined to run, so all eyes are now turned to Steve Kleeb, who got 45% in 2006 in NE-03, the sixth most Republican district in the country. Kleeb is getting some very positive press in the state, with the local media encouraging him to run...

But weighing on Kleeb's mind has to be the fact that this will be an almost unwinnable race. He will face former Governor Johanns or Attorney General Bruning in the general election (probably Johanns), two political heavyweights. In case we needed confirmation of the fact that the open seat is leaning Republican, Research 2000 released a poll (commissioned by Daily Kos) that shows a big gap between the two parties: Kleeb loses 59% to 28% against Johanns, and 55% to 29% against Bruning (by the way, Kerrey withdrew before anyone polled that race... so we will never see a survey of Johanns-Kerrey, what people were already calling the cycle's marquee race).

Democrats are taking comfort in Kleeb's low name-recognition and contend that his numbers will improve as the campaign goes on (if Kleeb actually gets in, of course); and it is true that Kleeb's strength in 2006 was very surprising, so many there is something to his appeal.