New early-state polls: Clinton strong everywhere but IA, Romney everywhere but SC

Four new early-state polls were released this evening: Two of Iowa, and one each from New Hampshire and South Carolina. Since each tests both the Democratic and Republican fields, that makes it eight set of numbers to look at and analyze! So let's get right to it.

• Iowa

The two polls show the same underlying trends. On the Republican side, Romney is still ahead but Huckabee has established himself a strong second:

• In the NYT/CBS survey, Romney leads with 27%, followed by Huckabee's 21%. Giuliani is far behind at 15%. Thompson comes in at 9% and McCain at 4%.
• The Strategic Vision poll has similar findings: Mitt Romney has 30%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 19%, Giuliani at 12%, Thompson at 11% and McCain at 7%.

On the Democratic side, Clinton barely holds on to a lead and the race is basically a three-way tie:

• Among Democrats, the NYT survey has Clinton at 25%, followed by Edwards at 23% and Obama at 22%. Richardson is at 12%, and Biden at 4%.
• The closeness of the race is confirmed by the Strategic Vision numbers that have Clinton at 29%, followed by Obama at 27% and Edwards at 20%. Richardson is at 7%, and Biden at 5%. A month ago, Clinton had 28% and Obama 23%.
• The NYT poll shows that first-time caucus-goers are not as pro-Obama as it is believed, as he edges Clinton 29-28 only. But Edwards only gets 16%. Among regular caucus-goers, Edwards has 26, Clinton 24, and Obama 19. The Obama campaign will really have to put everything it has into bringing these voters to the polls come January 3rd.

• New Hampshire

The poll of New Hampshire is from the NYT/CBS survey:

• Romney has a massive lead in the GOP primary with 34%. Giuliani and McCain are tied at 16%. Ron Paul is fourth at a high of 8%, followed by Huckabee at 6% and Thompson, who comes in sixth for the third poll in a row, at 5%.
• Among Democrats, Clinton holds her own at 37%, followed by Obama's 22%. Edwards is very low at 9%.

This confirms what we have seen in the past week: Clinton's NH lead has gone down a bit but is still comfortable, while Romney has expanded his lead again after seeing it shrink throughout October.

• South Carolina

SurveyUSA came out with a new poll from South Carolina tonight, completing the picture of early-state surveys:

• The Republican field is as divided as it could possibly be: 5 candidates are within 14%. Rudy Giuliani has 26%, followed by Romney at 20%. Thompson, who used to be first in the state, is at 18%, while McCain at 14% and Huckabee at 12% are also in the double-digits.
• SUSA only polled the major-three in the Democratic side, which probably explains why their numbers are a bit inflated. But Clinton has a big lead: 47% to Obama's 33%. Edwards, who won the state in 2004, is far behind at 10%. SUSA points out that there is a 52 gender gap, as Clinton leads among women by 33 points and Obama among men by 19 points.
  

Clearly, no one is emerging as the Republican favorite in South Carolina at all, and that probably will not change much until January 19th. This means that whoever has momentum out of IA and NH will probably carry SC, which is great news for Romney.

A few quick general notes:

• On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is very strong as usual. These numbers suggest that nothing will stop him in NH if he wins Iowa, and he can then expect to win South Carolina as well, putting him in an extremely strong position to win the nomination. But Huckabee is emerging as an unlikely possible spoiler. All polls have him second and rising in Iowa. Even if Huckabee wins the caucuses, it is unsure how far he would go given how far behind he is in fundraising and organization in other states. But while not doing much for him, a Huckabee Iowa victory could doom Romney's candidacy. So Giuliani might want to see if there's any way he can help Huckabee in Iowa!
• Among Democrats, it all comes down to Iowa, more than ever. Anything can happen there, more than anywhehre else in the country, and Hillary could come in comfortably first just as much as she could finish a distant third. NH and SC are still Clinton-country, and Obama still has to find a way to dent in Clinton's support among women -- check out those SC numbers.