Morning polls: Iowa, Iowa, Iowa

With 6 weeks to go before Iowa votes, we can expect to see many more polls from the caucuses. And we got our share today: Two for the Democratic side, and one for the GOP. Let's review the Republicans first, as they are quite stunning.

• ARG released its survey this morning, and Mike Huckabee has pretty much tied the race! Mitt Romney leads 26% to Huckabee 24%. Giuliani and Thomspon are very far behind at 11%, with McCain at 10%.
• In one piece of good news for Romney, his support is much more firm than the other candidate's: 71% of those who support say their support is definite, compared to 58% for Huckabee and... 33% for Giuliani.

This confirms most polls we have seen lately, but the extent of Huckabee's rise is nonetheless shocking. Romney cannot afford to lose Iowa. He has put more efforts here than anywhere else, and he has been annointed the heavy favorite of the caucuses. A loss here and he would lose the momentum that is supposed to propel him ahead in New Hampshire -- and it does look that such a loss (unthinkable two weeks ago) is a distinct possibility. Huckabee has put a lot of effort in Iowa, to the exclusion of anywhere else, and it is unclear how much he would benefit from a win here -- but he could hurt Romney's campaign.

Democrats got two polls, both with Clinton slightly ahead:

• Rasmussen has her at 29%, followed by Edwards at 25% and Obama at 24%. This is a slight drop from October, where Hillary had a 33-22 lead, the first double-digit caucus lead we had seen have. Clinton's support seems the most firm: 57% of her supporters are "certain" of their support, versus only 45% of Obama's.
• But in a key finding, Rasmussen points out that among those who are certain they will participate in the caucuses (and we know how important it is to screen correctly), all three candidates get 26%!
• The other poll is from ARG. It has Clinton ahead 27% to Obama's 21% and Edwards 20%. Richardson is back in the double digits at 10%. Here again, Barack Obama's support is the less firm.

Clinton supporters will be happy to hear that Clinton has at least stabilized her position in Iowa. She is no longer expanding her lead as she was in October, but she is still in a position to win the thing. More importantly, the fact that her support is firmer could mean that she is the least likely to finish in third position, something that could doom all of the candidates.

• SUSA has Clinton stronger in Ohio

Yesterday's Quinnipiac poll showed Clinton and Obama tied with Republicans in Ohio. But SUSA is out with its own general election poll today, and it has Clinton in a much position -- though Obama fares very poorly:

• The only match-up Hillary loses is against McCain, 47% to 46%.
• She leads Rudy Giuliani 49% to 44%, Romney 51% to 42% and Huckabee 54% to 37%.
• Obama is crushed by both McCain (52% to 37%) and Giuliani (49% to 41%), though he does lead Romney (45% to 41%) and Huckabee (48% to 38%).

Polls are all over the place, clearly, and we will see more of this in the coming months, especially in Ohio. But insofar as they help us assess the argument that Clinton is unelectable in red states, these polls are very useful. One thing that we see: It is very rare to find polls with Clinton faring significantly poorer than her rivals. But McCain is much more consistently ahead.

• Obama steady nationally

Finally, Rasmussen is out with new general election polls today pitting Barack Obama against Giuliani and Thompson. Obama fares well against both, recapturing a lead against Giuliani 43% to 41% and leading a bit more comfortably against Fred Thompson 47% to 42%. A surprising finding of the poll is how weak Thompson's favorability rating appears: He has 39% favorable and 46% unfavorable, for a -7 rating that puts him at a pretty bad place.