Clinton slipping, but still ahead with massive leads

CNN has a new national poll out -- and Obama has cut Clinton's lead significantly. A month ago, Hillary led 51% to 21%. Today, she is ahead 44% to 25%. The 30% lead is now down to 19%, quite a dramatic move. This is confirmed by the Washington Post poll I reported yesterday, in which Clinton's lead went down from 33% to 23% in a few weeks.

This is when being the clear front-runner pays off. Hillary Clinton has been attacked by all since last Tuesday's debate, and she has slipped in the polls: Two national polls that show your lead dropping by 10% cannot be easily dismissed, especially when most polls had Clinton breaking 50% starting in mid-October. But because Clinton was so far ahead, this drop still leaves her crushing the field: 44% is still a very strong number, and is where Clinton was before her October surge. Edwards and Obama have managed to stop her momentum, but it takes much more to topple such a strong front-runner.

This same analysis will apply if Clinton stumbles in Iowa. Her support is not like Dean's, and she has such strong leads in other states -- including New Hampshire at this point -- that it will not evaporate overnight. Clinton could very well drop 10 points and still come away with a win. This is the way most front-runners have survived in the past, starting with Walter Mondale in 1984. He had a 50 points or so lead nationally against Gary Hart on the eve of the New Hampshire primary which he stunningly lost, but had built enough of an advantage that Hart was never fully able to challenge him.

That said, Barack Obama has one huge advantage that Hart did not have: Prodigious fundraising. He will not weaken after an early win and will have the money to compete in all states and press any momentum he gains. This is truly what has to have Hillary the most worried. Edwards in 2004 had strong momentum out of Iowa and South Carolina, but could not afford a national campaign. Obama can.

CNN's poll also came out with general election numbers: Clinton is leading 51% to 45% against Rudy Giuliani. A month ago, it was 49% to 47%. This also indicates that her weakening in the Democratic field is not hurting her against the GOP. Quite the contrary, the increased attention the media is paying to the Democratic race these past few weeks is probably helping the Democrats. Also, CNN finds that in a three-way race that would include a third-party religious candidate, Hillary Clinton would crush Giuliani 48% to 32% with a high 18% for the third-party.