Hillary Clinton's New Hampshire slide continues, while Mitt Romney increases his lead

It is not quite a collapse. But given how inevitable Hillary Clinton's nomination seemed just two weeks ago, her slide in most polls taken this week is truly remarkable. Earlier this week, a Rasmussen poll had Obama cutting Clinton's lead by 13% in the New Hampshire primary, reducing a 23% edge to 10%. And today, Marist confirms the trend and shows a very similar tightening of the Democratic race:

• Hillary Clinton led 41% to Obama's 20% in October. Today, it's 36% to 25%. A 21% lead has been reduced to 11%.
• John Edwards follows at 14%, while Bill Richardson's continues his slow decline, coming in at 6%.
• There is some good news for Clinton in the poll, however. For one, her support is much stronger than her opponents'. 64% of Hillary supporters say they are strong supporters, against only 49% of Obama's and 46% of Edwards. Also, 53% of New Hampshire Democrats say Hillary is the most electable come next November. Finally, there is no "anti-Hillary majority" her rivals can hope to tap into. Hillary is by far the top second choice of Edwards and Obama backers.
• One last lesson from the poll: Most of Hillary's slide comes from male voters (she loses 9 points among them), especially those above 45 (-14). Hillary remains stable among female voters, winning that group with 45%! Hillary also continues crushing Obama among lower-income and non-educated voters.

Hillary's strength comes from the fact that she is the only Democrat who can survive a loss in Iowa. Her staggering leads in NH and SC meant that she was likely to still do well in later states even if she stumbled in the caucuses. But Obama and Edwards are clearly making something work in New Hampshire, and Hillary is no longer the mighty front-runner. Remember though that Hillary was barely ahead in NH for most of the spring and early summer, so Obama is only bringing this back to where it was earlier in the year.

One major question, however: Can Obama hope to bring Hillary down if he does not make a dent in her support among women? Could Hillary possibly lose if she got 45% of the female vote?!

Meanwhile, the opposite phenomenon is appearing in the GOP primary:

• Mitt Romney's lead seemed to be declining in all NH polls in October. Marist had his edge down to 6%.
• In today's poll, he is leading 33% to 22% for Rudy Giuliani.
• John McCain maintains his third-place, though not as strong as we have seen him sometimes. He has 13%.
• Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee tie for fourth place, stunningly, at 7%!! This means that Fred Thompson is sixth at 5%. This confirms every other poll we have seen lately: Thompson is so weak in the state that his candidacy could die there. Could he make an argument that he is still viable if he comes in at 5% in New Hampshire?

Mitt Romney has to hold on to this for a few more weeks. A likely caucus victory in Iowa would boost him in New Hampshire and ensure his victory there a few days later. And Fred Thompson should really devote more time to New Hampshire. We got that he has no desire (or hope) of winning here, but he has to at least survive the test by coming in with some decent showing. At this point, even fourth would be honorable.