Three states that were not close at all in 2004 have Rudy and Hillary in a toss-up

Connecticut, Georgia and Tennessee are not supposed to be the battlegrounds of the 2008 election. All three were fully uncompetitive in 2004, but a new Rasmussen wave of polls has Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani in a toss-up in all three. And in great news for the Clinton campaign, the internals of at least one of the polls suggest that her campaign's argument that she would get votes from GOP women might very well be justified.

• Connecticut: 46-43 Clinton
  

Only Giuliani makes Connecticut competitive, but he manages to get within the margin of error, trailing 46% to 43%. Clinton has healthier leads against John McCain (47-39), Fred Thompson (52-34) and Mitt Romney (53-34). It is of course one of the centerpieces of Giuliani's campaign that he would put coastal blue states like CT or NJ in play -- so polls that confirm that help his electability argument.

• Georgia: 48-44 Giuliani
  

Georgia is perhaps one of the states that I would least expect to see a toss-up race in. It has been drifting more Republican by the election in the past few cycles, and Bush crushed Kerry 58% to 41%. But Clinton trails Giuliani only by 4 points, 48% to 44%. She is even closer against Thompson: 47% to 44%. This is even more impressive considering that 40% of Georgia voters have a very unfavorable impression of Hillary - a devastating number for any candidate.

Barack Obama does much more poorly in Georgia: He trails Giuliani 51% to 37% and Thompson 48% to 39%. What is the difference with Hillary? The female vote! Rasmussen explains that Clinton has a substantial advantage among women in Georgia (13 points versus Rudy, 18 points versus Thompson) that Obama cannot match. Both Democrats trail by the same amount among males.

This is one of the first confirmations I have seen of Clinton's argument that she would attract Republican women voters, and thus cut GOP margins in state that have long voted Republican. If true, this could account for why so many red states have been shown to be competitive -- and be a great boost for Clinton's electability argument.

• Tennessee: 45-42 Giuliani
  

Tennessee is Fred Thompson's home state, and it shows as he crushes Hillary 54% to 41%, Obama 56% to 33% and Edwards 53% to 37%. But Hillary Clinton is much more competitive against the Republican candidates that are not native-sons: She trails Giuliani 45% to 42%, and even gets a one-point edge versus Romney, 43% to 42%. We have seen a few other Tennessee polls in the past few months -- in fact, the numbers are very similar to a survey released four days ago. So Tennessee definitely looks like a battleground state in 2008, except if Thompson is the GOP nominee. If only Gore had done a bit better here in 2000...

• Nevada primary: Clinton dominates, Rudy's lead shrinks

Also today, we get a Zogby primary poll of Nevada confirming that Romney is rising in states that aren't supposed to be Romney-country that aren't supposed to be Mitt-country:

• Giuliani leads with 28% to Romney's 20%. Thompson has 13%, McCain 8%, Ron Paul 7% and Huckabee 5%.
• In the spring poll, Giuliani dominated 37% to Romney and McCain's 15% -- so things have gone closer without candidates campaiging in the state, for Nevada has been mostly ignored despite being very early in the calendear.
• Zogby also has Democratic numbers that I should mention here, though the numbers are pretty much exactly where they were 6 months ago: Hillary gets 37%, followed by Obama at 19% and Edwards at 15%.