Update on the February 5th delegate allocation: Who won more Super Tuesday delegates?

Most estimations of the Super Tuesday results have shown Obama getting a few more delegates out of February 5th. My Friday morning state-by-state breakdown showed Clinton ahead by 23 pledged delegates, with 70 still outstanding, mostly from Obama states.

A look at the websites of the state parties has allowed me to allocate the outstanding delegates in three states (check the full updated 02/05 delegate count here):

• In Alabama, the four remaining delegates spit equally 2-2, for a final breakdown of 27 Obama, 25 Clinton (an explanation of how this can be so close is provided below).
• In Tennessee, the four remaining delegates also split equally, for a final breakdown of 40-28.
• In New York, the final outstanding delegate went to Clinton, for a final breakdown of 139 to 91.

That gives Clinton a 822 to 798 lead with 61 delegates still to be attributed, 27 from Colorado, 20 from Georgia and 14 from Illinois. The exact district-by-district results are needed for those to be allocated and those numbers are not easily available. But this much is clear: Obama needs to win 43 of the remaining 61 delegates to emerge with a delegate lead out of February 5th, holding Clinton at 18. Now such a split is very much possible given that all three states have gone to Obama big. But that would mean a more than 2:1 distribution, which is by no mean certain considering Clinton has more than half of Obama's delegate in both Illinois and Georgia right now.

So Clinton looks like she might emerge with the biggest share of February 5th's pledged delegates, contrary to most media reports. This is due to California in particular. In his oft-cited analysis the night of Super Tuesday, NBC's Chuck Todd came out with a 4 delegate lead for Obama but that was by giving Clinton a 34 delegate lead out of the Golden State (and Todd said that was a generous estimate). It now looks like Clinton got 44 delegates more than Obama in California, which explains the possible reversal here. I will update the delegate count page with numbers from CO, IL and GA as they are available.

The delegate count will obviously be profoundly affected by tonight's results, and Obama will have a pledged delegate lead after tonight thanks to his triumphs in NE, WA and LA. But the question of who won more delegates on 02/05 remains interesting.

Meanwhile, it is interesting to look at the delegate allocation mechanisms a bit more closely, starting with Alabama. Obama won that state 56% to 42% but only has a 2 delegate lead, 27 to 25. And that certainly deserves an explanation. In my Super Tuesday preview of last Tuesday, I explained why the problem of even/odd districts could lead to some strange delegate math (refer to that page if you don't remember how the odd/even delegate math works). And despite losing the statewide vote by 14%, Clinton tied Obama among district-level delegates, 17 to 17:

• The district with the biggest African-American population (AL-07) split its 7 delegates 5-2. But two of the three other districts with large black populations (AL-01 and AL-02) were four delegate districts. So despite winning those comfortably, Obama was forced into a 2-2 tie in both (he would have had to get more than 62% to get a 3-1 split).
• The state's least black district (the 4th) went for Clinton overwhelmingly, as the racial polarization of Southern primaries kicked in. The 4th was a five delegate district, and that allowed Clinton to get a wide 4-1 lead. Since Obama was not able to open up a gap among the parts of the state that strongly voted for him, he had to settle for a 17-17 split.
• The statewide allocation went 10-8 for Obama.

There were many cases in which Obama benefited from the delegate allocation rules, especially in New York City. Clinton won the populous and strongly Democratic NY-14 and NY-15 (Rangel's district) with 57% and 55% respectively, but was forced to split delegates 3-3 in each district because she did not cross the 59% threshold.

Neither Democrat should get a sizable delegate lead, with a case study of Tennessee!)

Who would have thought Super Tuesday would ever come? Yet, here we are on February 5th, hours from the first polls closing and the first results trickling in. In the excitement of states being called, it will be very easy to forget that it will ultimately matter very little which candidate wins what state, and that the Democratic primary will be all about the delegate fight.

In fact, it might be all about the superdelegate fight at this point. Most estimates agree that, whatever happens tonight, even if a candidate sweeps of the states, he or she is unlikely to get a lead of more than a 100 pledged delegates. That's right, after all the excitement over Super Tuesday, it's now so close that the candidates are likely to split delegates pretty equally given the proportional allocation rules. That would mean that Clinton or Obama would need to get around 1000 of the 1400 delegates left to be allocated in the upcoming states, an impossible feat if neither drops out. In other words, it is looking increasingly likely that neither Obama nor Clinton will ever clinch a majority with pledged delegates alone -- throwing the nomination in the hands of the unelected unpledged superdelegates (party officials, elected officials) who can do whatever they want.

The Republican race is much more straightforward; you can check check my state-by-state analysis of the delegate allocation here for a background of the GOP race. But it now seems necessary now to look at the state of the Democratic fight, in particular how the problem of even/odd delegates districts might affect the allocation of delegates. I explain what this problem consists in in a prior analysis. In short, every congressional attributes a number of delegates -- between three and eight.

It is very difficult to get an extra delegate in an even-numbered district. For example, in a 4 delegate district, the candidate split the delegates 2-2 unless one of them breaks 62.5%, in which case the allocation is 3-1. In a 6 delegate district, the allocation is 3-3 unless a candidate breaks 58%, in which case it's 4-2. In odd delegate district, a one vote margin in that district gives the victor an extra delegate. So if a candidate gets 50.01% of the vote in a 5 delegate district, that already creates a delegate gap.

The delegate rules means that Illinois and New York will be big stories tonight: How will each candidate fare in the other's home state? They are both likely to cross 15% of the vote everywhere (though there is a chance that Clinton fails to cross that in the 3 African-American districts of Chicago, which are some rare 8 delegate districts, and that could give some massive leads to Obama), but will they cross the 32% or 27% thresholds that will enable them to force a split of delegates in even-numbered districts?

Obama could be stronger at this game, as he looks strong enough in New York that he is likely to cross 30% in a lot of districts that Clinton will win handily. In other words, Clinton could get 65% of the vote in a district... but only 50% of its delegates! For district-by-district (literally, all of them) analysis and number crunching, take a look at Cook Political's wonderful chart of the delegate allocation scenarios. I have used this chart in my analysis, and will definitely refer to it throughout the night to keep tabs on what is going on.

In short, Clinton has more to lose in this strange delegate game. And this for a very simple reason: The constituency that is breaking the most heavily for a candidate is the African-American community. This means that in predominantly black districts -- and there are many throughout the country -- Obama is likely to come out with more delegates, even if the district has even number of delegates since Obama is getting more than 70% of the black vote. On the other hand, even if Clinton wins more consistently across other districts, she is far less likely to break 60% and get that extra delegate. She could win the state overall but lose the district-level delegate count.

Let's take a look at Tennessee to illustrate this strange reality. Tennessee has 9 congressional districts, that attribute 44 of the state's pledged delegates. Most polls have Clinton up big in this state (about 20%), one of her safest strongholds. But a district-by-district look reveals that Clinton has got to be worried.

• The 9th district which is 59.7% black (which means an even higher proportion of Democratic primary voters). It is also a 6 delegate district, and Obama should be able to break the 59% he needs for a 4-2 split.
• The first, second and third districts all allocate four delegates. And while Clinton is likely to win big in all of them, she needs to break 62.5%. That will obviously be very hard for her to accomplish, especially given that Obama can count on a minimal black base in all those places, so that she could be forced to come out of these 3 districts with a 6-6 split.
• The 5th district is 23% black and has 6 delegates. Obama is likely to win there, and he could be forced to split the delegates. But he is more likely to break 59% than Clinton is to break 62% in the first 3 districts.
• That leaves Clinton with the 4th, 6th, 7th districts to get any sort of delegate lead. All of these have 5 delegates, which makes it near impossible for her to win by a big enough landslide to get a 4-1 edge (once again, the black vote should provide Obama with a strong base). In other words, these three districts combined could give Clinton a 3 delegate lead -- one each.
• Finally, the 8th district looks to be more disputed between the candidates. It is a 5 delegate district, so that the winner will get an extra delegate even if he only wins by a vote.
  
• The bottom line: Obama could lose the state by 15% or more but tie Clinton on the district delegate count. By opening up a 2 delegate margin in the 9th and perhaps the 5th district while forcing Clinton to split the delegates in her own strongholds (the first 3 districts), Obama would at worst trail Clinton by 1-2 delegates, at best lead her by as much. And all of this while losing the popular vote by 15%.

Clinton should still get a delegate lead out of Tennessee since there also are 24 delegates that will be attributed statewide proportionally, and Clinton's victory margin will be big enough to get her a few extra delegates there. But the odd/even district reality will make it hard forher to get a clear delegate lead out of Tennessee even if it's one of her strongholds!

Now, this is in great part due to which districts are odd and even. If the 1st, 2nd and 3rd were odd numbered and the 9th was even numbered, Clinton would look much better in Tennessee. And it is absurd to think that tonight's winner could be determined by such minor factors as to which districts have 3 or 5 delegates, and which have 4 or 6.

Marc Ambinder conducts a similar analysis for California, and gets to a similar conclusion.

And Obama could get in his own share of trouble. Consider Delaware's Wilmington section (Deleware is one of the only 2 states that has specially designed jurisdictions to allocate delegates). Wilmington is 56.4% African-American, so even more among Democratic primary voters but... it has only 2 delegates. In other words, if Clinton crosses the viability threshold of 15% (which she could very well do given that most polls have her getting 20% of the black vote, and she could also depend on the district's 10% Hispanic voters to supply her with whatever else she needs to pass 15%) she will get one delegate, as many as Obama. That's right, Clinton could get 15% of the vote and force a 50-50 delegate split!

I will do my best to keep you updated on the delegate count throughout the night, thought it will not be easy to get an idea of what is going on considering that all votes really need to be counted for delegate allocations to happen. It is not enough to know who won the district; it is more important to know whether the winner crossed 59% or 62.5%! And that is not something we are likely to know early in the evening.

In fact, California officials are now warning that it will be impossible to get an idea of the district-by-district delegate allocations without having all votes counted, and that might not happen until Friday given the high number of absentee ballots. No definite delegate numbers from California until Friday? Think about that.

Polling tide shifts once more to Obama, as Zogby's trackings show him with expanding leads

As the Republican race is getting slightly more exciting in the run-up to Super Tuesday, I will keep the Democratic and Republican numbers separate in analyzing a large number of new polls.

Democrats: With the release of a worrisome new wave of tracking polls, the tide in good poll news has switched back from Clinton to Obama, with Zogby going as far as suggest as Obama could have a "big night" if this momentum holds up (the Zogby polls were taken Friday to Sunday, making them the most up-to-date, though barely so). But it is worth noting that Mason-Dixon's numbers that were a bit more skeptical of a Clinton decline are supported by other surveys.

First, as always, comes California:

• Zogby shows Obama expanding his lead, now ahead 46% to 40% against Clinton. He was up 45% to 41% yesterday. And get this, Zogby says that Obama is leading Clinton 49% to 32% on Sunday polling alone (though these small samples have a huge margin of error and often show big fluctuations); but it is undeniable that Obama's surge is being felt.

• Obama's surge in California -- also underscored by Rasmussen poll hours this afternoon that showed him edging Clinton by a point -- is confirming by a Suffolk poll that has Obama up 40% to 39%.

• But an ARG survey has Clinton up 47% to 39%. The ARG poll has Clinton ahead 51% to 34% among registered Democrats but trailing 63% to 27% among independents (who only make up 14% of voters in this model).

It is very hard to get a sense of where California is heading, especially when you keep in mind that Obama actually needs to get his voters to the poll whereas Clinton can in all likelihood depend in some sort of lead among early-voters. Remember also that a California victory is mostly meant for spin, and that the real fight will be waged at the district level where Obama could do well by cleaning out the numerous Republican districts that have fewer Democratic voters.

Next comes the all important states of Missouri and New Jersey:

• Zogby has New Jersey staying in a tie, at 43%, the first survey that has ever shown Clinton not winning in the Garden State. Here again, remember that Zogby is being more optimistic for Obama than other recent polls, whether Mason Dixon or Mormouth University.

• In Missouri, Obama surges ahead. He was down 1% yesterday, today he is ahead 47% to 42%, underscoring the extent of Obama's last-minute rise.

We end with the South, in Georgia and Tennessee:

• In Georgia, Zogby shows Obama crushing Clinton 48% to 31%, which is actually a slight improvement for Clinton.
• Insider Advantage also polled Georgia and found Obama ahead 51% to 36%.


• In Tennessee, Insider Advantage has Clinton ahead 55% to 35%, a double-digit improvement by Obama in the matter of a few days but he still remains far.

Clinton cannot afford to lose New Jersey, and Missouri should rather be classified as a must-win state for Obama, albeit one in which he trailed for a long time so his surge here is impressive. Meanwhile, Georgia and Tennessee are among the least suspenseful of Super Tuesday, as there is polling consensus about their splitting between Hillary and Barack.

Republicans: Romney's come back is still as improbable, but there are some signs that are pointing to its possibility. First in California, where two new polls have Romney in the lead:

• Zogby has Romney expanding his California poll, now up 50% to 42% (it was 47-44 yesterday). Romney winning by a substantial margin could mean that he also gets most districts, ensuring he gets a lot more delegates than expected out of Super Tuesday.
• The ARG poll has Romney edging out McCain 33% to 32%, with Huckabee at 16%.

Essential to Romney's chances is McCain losing Missouri and its winner-take-all 58 delegates. At worse, Romney has to hope that Huckabee can topple McCain here to prevent the Arizona Senator from amassing too many delegates. The latest Zogby poll has McCain up with 35% to 27% for Huckabee and 24% for Romney. Other polls have the race closer.

Zogby also polled the unsuspenseful New York race (53% to 19% McCain) and New Jersey (52% to 26% McCain). Both being winner-take-all, even the proportions the candidates receive do not matter, and we can go straight to the fascinating Southern polls of Insider Advantage.

• Georgia will be one of the three keys to the GOP contest on Tuesday, along with MO and CA, and Insider Advantage shows a complete toss-up: 30% Romney, 29% McCain, 28% Huckabee. Even a win by one vote gets whoever gets on top 33 statewide winner-take-all delegates. In a poll released on the 31st, it was 35% McCain and 24% each for Huckabee and Romney.


• In Tennessee, meanwhile, McCain's massive lead a few days ago (33-25 Huckabee-18 Romney) has tightened as well, with McCain up 32% to 30% to Huckabee and 22% for Romney.

The Republican race still unexpectedly holds some suspense, due in large part to Romney's stunning ability to keep California in play. After the rallying of prominent figures to the McCain wagon and the aura of inevitability the campaign acquired, the mere fact that McCain still has to fight for this underscores how much many conservatives mistrust the Arizona Senator.

Obama rising, but Clinton has not sank just yet

Yesterday's series of polls showed Barack Obama gaining ground across the country in his effort to topple Clinton's national lead. But while Obama clearly has the momentum going into Super Tuesday, Clinton is still ahead in most polls taken in most states. In fact, the only states in which Obama has been shown to have in any survey have been Colorado (one poll had him up 2), Connecticut (one poll had him up 4), Georgia, Illinois and Alabama (though new polls today have Obama down).

Things are going well with for Obama, but Clinton has not sank just yet. Obama might be getting very close to Clinton, but he has not closed the gap entirely just yet. And while he does not need to win a majority of the states to stay alive since the Democratic primary is now a delegate race, he still needs to get some victories here and there. The question then is whether Obama will have enough time in the next three days to capitalize on his momentum. And a series of polls released today suggests Clinton is still able to hold firm.

Gallup's national tracking poll had Obama gaining for nine consecutive days, pulling within 3% yesterday, 44% to 41%. Today was the first day with the entire sample being taken after Edwards's withdrawal, but it is Clinton that benefited the most! As Edwards dropped from 8% to 4%, Clinton rose from 44% to 48%, now ahead of Obama by 7%! The last day Edwards was in the race, the numbers were 42-36-14. Edwards has lost 10% since then, Clinton has gained 6% and Obama 5%, so the theory that Obama is benefiting the most from Edwards's withdrawal is not supported by this survey. Among Republicans, McCain has shot up at 44%, ahead of Romney's 24%. McCain has moved up 12% since Giuliani's withdrawal.

Edwards's withdrawal is also hurting Obama in Alabama, where two new polls have Clinton in the lead. Alabama is shaping up to be one of the most interesting Super Tuesday states, and also one of the most racialy polarized as Clinton dominates among whites and Obama among blacks. Yesterday's SUSA poll had the race tied at 47%. Today:

• Rasmussen shows Clinton ahead 46% to 41%. She is helped by her decent showing among blacks, as she gets 30% -- much more than she did in South Carolina. But the electorate's racial polarization is revealed by this stunning internal: Only 51% of white voters have a favorable image of Obama, versus 82% of blacks!
• Among the GOP, Rasmussen shows McCain holding to a lead even in this Southern state, ahead of Mike Huckabee 38% to 30%, with Mit Romney at 20%.


• Insider Advantage came out with similar results in the Democratic race. Clinton is ahead 46% to 40%. Among Republicans, McCain is barely up 37% to 35% to Huckabee with Romney at 14%.

Obama was hoping to count on victories in Alabama and Georgia to complete a Southern strategy, which is what will make Alabama's results so interesting. Another Southern state in which Obama is trailing is Tennessee, where many polls have given a big lead to Clinton:

• A new Rasmussen survey shows Hillary is ahead 49% to 35%. The electorate is even more polarized in this state, and Obama is having trouble to break through because the African-American electorate is smaller here than in Georgia or South Carolina. Obama is ahead 71% to 12% among blacks, while Clinton is ahead 61% to 23% among whites.
• Rasmussen also polled the GOP contest and found a three-way contest between McCain's 32%, Romney's 29% and Huckabee's 23%.


• A second Tennessee poll was released today by WSMV-TV and shows a tighter race, 36% to 30% for Clinton. But there are a massive number of undecideds as the poll apparently did not push them very hard at all. The internals are also off, as Clinton barely leads among females but has a large lead among men. The same is true of the GOP race, where Huckabee has 24%, McCain 23% and Romney 18%.

Next we have a poll from Missouri, another key battleground state on Tuesday for both parties which Obama has put at the center of his strategy and where Romney is hoping to perhaps derail McCain.

• Yesterday's SUSA poll showed Clinton leading 48% to 44%. Today, a Rasmussen poll has Clinton further ahead, 47% to 38%. 11% of voters still support Edwards -- in a poll taken after his withdrawal. Just a week ago, Clinton was up 43% to 24%, with Edwards at 18%, confirming that Missouri could have been a strong Edwards state.
• Among Republicans, the race is as close as can be, with McCain up 32% to 29% to Huckabee and 28% for Romney.

Missouri offers a perfect example of what I mean when I ask whether Obama will have enough time to catch up. He has made up a lot of ground in the past week, including in Clinton strongholds like New Jersey and New York. But Clinton was so ahead as of a week ago that her loss of 10-15% is still leaving her in the lead.

This poll is also a perfect illustration for the fact that Romney and Huckabee are preventing each other from overtaking McCain by coalescing the conservative vote. Because of the division of the anti-McCain conservatives, McCain will probably be able to coast to wins in most states with no trouble.

Finally, a new Chicago Tribune poll confirms that Obama has no trouble holding his home-state and that McCain is comfortably ahead in blue states:

• McCain leads 43% to 20% for Romney, with Huckabee at 15%.
• Among Democrats, Clinton trails by a massive 55% to 24% -- much superior to Clinton's lead in New York.

Clinton's main objective in Illinois is to cross the 15% viability threshold statewide (which she should have no trouble doing) and in each of the 19 congressional districts which could be difficult for her in some areas of the state. Consider, however, that if Clinton can get even 38% in a four-delegate district, she will force an equal split of delegates. If she gets 20% in a three-delegate, she will get one of three of the allocated delegates -- in other words 33%, much more than her share of the vote. Obama will force similar splits in New York, and it is because of such rules that the Democratic contest could still be a toss-up come Wednesday morning.

Update: In response to a comment, these polls do not tell us anything about the debate's impact just yet. The Rasmussen polls, for example, were all conducted on Thursday so they don't incorporate any swing the debate might have produced. Furthermore, Obama is rising in those polls, even among those he is still trailing widely in. The Rasmussen polls of Alabama and Missouri that have Clinton ahead had her leading by a much larger margin just a week ago, and Obama has surged by at least 10% in both of them. The point is that his rise is for now not enough to overtake Clinton, though things could still change in the next three days... in either direction.

Primary polls: Key states tightening, including for Republicans

Yesterday afternoon alone, poll numbers from New York, California, Connecticut and Massachusetts showed Obama tightening the race in all these states. With three more polls this morning, we are starting to get a better idea of where things are heading on Tuesday:

• Rasmussen released a poll from California that has Clinton down to a 3% lead, stunning progress on Obama's part. Clinton is up 43% to 40%, with Edwards still getting 9%, way more than the margin between the two front-runners.
• Confirming that (1) Clinton could get the nomination on the strength of her Latino support and that (2) the polarization of the white vote only applies to the South, Clinton leads by 27% among Hispanics and trails by 3% among whites.


• Among Republicans, the California race looks tighter than expected, with McCain leading 32% to 28%.

The survey was taken in the hours following McCain's Florida win and before Giuliani's withdrawal (he gets 14%), so McCain should still get a bounce out of those events. But since the conventional wisdom holds that McCain will just blow Romney out of the water at this point, this has got to be heartwarming for Romney supporters. Also comforting is a new poll from Illinois, also from Rasmussen:

• McCain is up 34% to Romney's 26%, confirming that Romney is holding his own. But the survey was taken mostly prior to McCain's Florida win, so it's going to be very difficult for Romney to climb those 8%.

And with that we get a series of polls from Southern states that are voting in 5 days, confirming that Tennessee and Georgia aren't that suspensful on the Democratic side but will be key battlegrounds for Republicans:

• In Tennessee, Insider Advantager has McCain leading 33% to 25% for Huckabee at 18% for Mitt Romney.
• Among Democrats, Clinton has a massive 59% to 26% lead. Edwards was not included in the poll. This follows a poll released earlier this week that gives Clinton a clear lead as well.


• In Georgia, Insider Advantage shows Obama ahead 52% to 36%. John Edwards was not included here either.
• John McCain is winning this Southern state as well, 35% to 24% for Huckabee and Romney.


• PPP also has a Georgia survey out, and it confirms Obama's lead. In a survey taken after Edwards's withdrawal, Obama is ahead 51% to 41%. He wins 73% of the black vote, but trails 56% to 36% among whites.
• Among Republiacns, PPP contradicts Insider Advantage showing Romney at 32% with McCain at 31% and Huckabee at 24%.

Update: Gallup's latest national tracking poll numbers are out, and they show Obama continuing to gain ground. He is now trailing 43% to 39%, a stunning come back as Barack trailed by double-digits just three days ago. Edwards is now at 8% -- down from 12%, and Gallup does say that his support does not seem to be going to one candidate overwhelmingly. Giuliani's support is massively benefit McCain, on the other hand, who is now ahead 37% to 22% for Romney (it was 32% to 21% yesterday).

The ground is shifting in Obama's favor, but does he have enough time?

With 6 days to go to Super Tuesday and with the GOP having gone a long way towards settling on a nominee last night, all eyes are now on the Democratic primary where the stakes of the next few days are much higher. Hillary Clinton is seeking to halt the seemingly unending stream of good news for Obama (South Carolina triumph, Kennedy endorsement) by putting forward her Florida win. And the campaign must be happy with the controversy over whether Obama snubbed on the floor of the Senate. Images of that "incident" are now being widely covered by the media, and every news cycle Clinton can own this week could make the difference come Super Tuesday.

The poll numbers indicate that the ground is shifting in Obama's favor and that he is getting closer to his rival. But with 6 days to go and the campaign now national, does Obama have enough time to make his case in the states he needs to do well in come Tuesday, for example in California? That is the huge question we are facing right now. And unfortunately for those of us who are accustomed to relying on polls to get some idea of where an election is heading, it will be very difficult to assess the state of the race in the next week. For one, most polls that are being released yesterday and today were taken late this week-end or on Monday, in other words in the immediate aftermath both of Obama's South Carolina victory and of Ted Kennedy's endorsement. Is that a lasting bounce like the one McCain got out of New Hampshire and South Carolina? Or will it subside in a few days like the one Obama got post-Iowa? It will be very difficult to assess this for a few more days.

Second, John Edwards's withdrawal dramatically alters the race, freeing 10% to 15% of the electorate who will have to choose a second choice. While some will probably stick with Edwards, this could significantly change the dynamnics between Obama and Clinton, and we will not have much indication of where the Edwards vote is going for a couple of days. And third, there is a debate tomorrow night that will probably be watched closely by many Super Tuesday voters, and its impact will likely be decisive. Don't forget that we have already had a couple of game-changing debates, whether October's Philadelphia debate that was the start of Clinton's troubles, the New Hampshire debate on January 5th that caused the female vote to rally around Hillary or the South Carolina debate of last week in which the image of Obama being tag-teamed by two white candidates could have a lot to do with what we saw on Saturday night.

With those words of caution, let's launch into today's polls as nearly all states are tightening right now in what is shaping up to be a fascinating run-up to Super Tuesday. First, Gallup's national poll has some fascinating national numbers in its tracking poll:

• In the latest poll that was in the field from Sunday to Tuesday, Barack Obama has risen to his highest percentage in yet (in the past 3 weeks) and is trailing Clinton by only 6%, 44% to 38%. Five days ago, it was 47% to 32% Clinton; two days ago, it was 44% to 33%. Yesterday, 44% to 34%. Clinton has been steadily declining for about a week now and this is a very worrying trend because a national lead is essential to her chances on Tuesday in what is essentially a national primary. Edwards gets 12% in the latest poll, double the margin between Obama and Clinton... The next few days could prove very instructive.

With that, let's move on to some state polls including in two states that Clinton should be winning very comfortably.

• In Connecticut, in Clinton's backyard, a Rasmussen poll shows Clinton and Obama tied at 40%. The poll was entirely conducted on Sunday, the day after Obama's SC victory, and it has John Edwards at 11%. Clinton can hardly afford to lose one of the states of the Tri-State Area, so she better pay special attention to Connecticut. No previous poll confirms that this primary is heading towards a toss-up, but it fits with the narrative of Obama's rise.
• Among the Republican winner-take-all primary, McCain is ahead big, 42% to 26% for Romney, as we would expect. Giuliani, still including in the poll, gets 12% in what was supposed to be one of his momentum-proof states.


• Next, we have a PPP poll that has Hillary only up by 12% against Obama, 45% to Obama's 33%, with Edwards at 10%. The numbers are strange given the high number of undecideds, particularly among white voters who break 44-29 for Clinton and black voters who go 44-32 for Obama (a lower proportion than we are used to seeing). Clinton leads 64% to 31% among Hispanics, in what is clearly a key constituency for her. Also keep in mind that Obama coming in relatively close to Clinton in New York could get him a big number of delegates from Clinton's very own home-state.


• And with that we move on to some better news for Clinton, a Tennessee poll that has her leading 43% to Obama's 32% with Edwards at 16%. Tennessee will be a disputed state come Tuesday but this is one contest where Edwards's withdrawal should benefit Clinton. He gets 2% among black voters, among whom Obama leads 60% to 20% but he ties Obama among whites (of which Clinton gets 50%).

• The most worrisome numbers yet come from California, where a tracking poll conducted on behalf of an anti-gambling campaign (which is polling an initiative that is also on the ballot and including primary questions) shows Obama only 5% behind Clinton (36-31) in a period ending on Sunday. On Sunday alone, Obama is up 3%, but the margin of error of such a small sample is obviously gigantic. The point remains that Obama is tightening the race, but Obama supporters should not get carried away yet: (1) SUSA's survey that I reported yesterday is probably more reliable was taken entirely on Sunday and has Clinton up 11%; (2) California is one of those states Obama could have an early-voting problem, as about a quarter of the electorate has probably already voted and gone for Clinton big. Can Obama really make up for it?
  

Finally, let's close this poll post with a reminder of why many Democrats would have much rather seen Romney win Florida than McCain. The latest general election numbers come to us from Rasmussen and they have good news for the GOP:

• John McCain defeats Hillary Clinton 48% to 40% and tops Obama 47% to 41%. That's a reversal from two weeks ago when both Obama and Clinton led McCain, albeit by a small margin.

Keep in mind that McCain has gotten a lot of good press lately with his rivals leaving him unscathed, which accounts for why he appears so strong at the moment. Rasmussen will start a daily tracking poll this week-end pitting McCain against both Democrats, so we will see if McCain's numbers go down a bit as the attention shifts back to the Democratic race.

Update: Add one more state in which Obama is rising fast, and this one is directly due to Kennedy's endorsement. A new Rasmussen poll from Massachusetts has Clinton only leading 43% to 37% in a state in which she used to be much stronger. There is no past Rasmussen poll to compare trendlines.