Super Tuesday guidelines: What to watch for tonight

My analysis of the Democratic and Republican delegate allocations will serve as my detailed preview of Super Tuesday, but here is a quick overview of what to look for tonight, and what states will be most important in determining tomorrow morning's headlines:

California, for both parties: Few people expected the Romney come back in California, but the primary here is closed and conservatives have rallied around Romney over the past week, giving him an opening to win the Golden State. Unfortunately for Romney, a win would not necessarily mean a delegate lead, since every district attributes 3 delegates (winner-take-all), whether they are a heavily conservative districts with hundreds of thousands of GOP voters or a liberal San Fransisco area with only a few thousands voters in a Republican primary. Ultimately, California will matter as a symbol in the GOP race. It will be much easier for Romney to justify continuing the race if he wins the country's biggest state.

Among Democrats, California will be essential to determining the storyline, though here also delegates are likely to be mostly split. An Obama victory would be the dramatic exclamation point to the candidate's surge over the past week, and give us a measure of his momentum going forward. If Clinton holds on to the state, it will allow her campaign to make the argument that Obama's momentum is being overstated, just as in New Hampshire. Polls have shown big leads for both candidates, so there is an expectation that Obama could do well today; that means -- however unfair that is -- that even a narrow Clinton win would be presented as a great victory for the New York Senator, just as in New Hampshire.

Illinois and New York, Democrats: Obama and Clinton will (almost) no doubt win their home states, but their margin of victory will determine just how big a lead of delegate they get. Will Clinton cross 15% in the Chicago districts? Will she cross 30% in most districts, allowing her to force a delegate split in the even-delegate districts? Will Obama do the same in upstate New York districts that award even number of delegates? (More information about this delegate distribution here.) Will he win some districts in New York City that he has targeted?

Missouri, both parties: This is a must-win state for Mitt Romney, perhaps even the must-win state. 58 delegates are at stake in the only winner-take-all primary that is a toss-up, and Romney needs those delegates to stay close in the final delegate count. Even with a California victory, it will make very little sense for Romney to continue if McCain has amassed a big delegate lead and is approaching a majority.

For Democrats, the race has been equally close and Obama really wants to win here to be able to make the argument that Clinton cannot win in purple states and away from the coasts and argue that he is the best placed to win over swing voters in the general election. For Clinton, a victory here would allow her to counter the storyline of Obama's surge -- just as in California.

Georgia, Republicans: The Democratic race is not very suspenseful here, and expect it to be called early (it is the only state where polls close at 7pm). But this is one of the most important states in the GOP contest. Not only do polls show a complete three-way toss-up between Huckabee, McCain and Romney, but the winner gets 33 at-large winner-take-all delegates (there also are districts allocated by district). As I already said, Romney needs to keep himself close to McCain in the delegate count and he needs Missouri and Georgia in his column to do so.

Connecticut and New Jersey, Democrats: In Clinton's backyard, these two states were long considered strongholds for the New York Senator. But recent polls have shown a tight race, especially in Connecticut. A loss in either of these states, while not dramatic delegate wise (especially in CT), would be very embarrassing for Clinton. The results here are also likely to come early in the morning and thus shape coverage more than results in states that report later.

Massachusetts, Democrats: Clinton was long massively ahead but Ted Kennedy (and, to a lesser degree, John Kerry)'s endorsement have given a tremendous boost to Obama's organization. Polls since then have been very contradictory, ranging from a narrow Obama edge to a large Clinton lead. This is another state whose results could be known early and that could prove embarrassing to the NY Senator.

Alabama, both parties: Huckabee is hoping to complete a Southern surge that started to register in the polls in the past few days and take Alabama from McCai; he is also hoping for a strong showing in Tennessee. Romney seems out of the game in both of these states but needs Huckabee to poll well to deprive McCain of some nominees and stay close to him in the delegate count.

Among Democrats, Alabama is shaping as the only close Southern primary, especially since Edwards's withdrawal threw white voters in Clinton's camp. Polls show a complete toss-up here, and a victory here could give the winner's campaign one more thing to boast about tomorrow morning. After all, with Obama and Clinton likely to split delegates, it will all come down to a battle of symbols.

There obviously are a lot of other storylines (especially in the Democratic race, where every state will feature a major delegate fight, even places that a candidate is expected to win solidly). So to help us through the night, here is a quick assesment of where things stand (the "Lean X" lists are organized from the safest to the less safe states). First, for Democrats:

Leaning Clinton: New York, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma

Leaning Obama: Georgia, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, North Dakota

Toss-up: California, Alabama, Missouri, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Kansas, Arizona, New Mexico

And for Republicans:

Lean McCain: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Arizona, Illinois, Oklahoma

Lean Romney: Utah, Massachusetts, the caucus states (despite little evidence of what is going on): Colorado, North Dakota, Alaska, Minnesota, Montana

Lean Huckabee West Virginia (already won!), Arkansas

Toss-up: California, Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri, Delaware, Alabama

In final Super Tuesday polls, California is all over the place

After SUSA's massive wave of polls comforted Clinton supporters earlier today, we knew that the next batch of surveys could only bring some good news to Obama supporters. And Zogby's third and last day of tracking polls confirms that pollsters are very divided in what to expect in the Democratic race. Their Republican results are much more consistent, suggesting that the Democratic primary is still very fluid with many people still making up their mind.

And with that let's review the latest numbers from Zogby, and first off California where two polls show widely different numbers.

• Zogby shows Obama has stormed to a stunning 13% lead, 49% to 36%. Just yesterday, Obama was up 46% to 40%, so he had some very good single nights Sunday and Monday. Zogby explains that he progressed among Hispanic voters and women, two key Clinton constituencies.
• Among Republicans, Romney remains stable, leading 40% to 33% for McCain with Huckabee at 12%.


• That California's polls are all over the place is confirmed by SUSA's second California poll of the day. They supplemented the poll they had this afternoon with numbers from Monday night and found Clinton up 52% to 42%. Clinton's advantage among Latinos is a large 67% to 31%. The key to Clinton's good numbers here lies in the fact that more than a third of the electorate have already voted, and they indicate having chosen Clinton by 17%. Obama will need to have a big day tomorrow to offset that.
• SUSA shows Romney facing the same problem: SUSA explains that conservatives are now racing to vote Romney (who has tripled his support among conservatives in three weeks) but Romney will have to offset his disadvantage among early voters who are locked in for McCain by 6%. Overall, Romney has pulled into a tie, 39% to 38%. In the poll released this afternoon, Romney was down 39-36.

The second state from which we have more than one poll is New Jersey:

• First, Zogby has Clinton rising to a slight lead, 46% to 41%, after being stuck in a tie at 43% last night.
• Rasmussen finds a similar margin in New Jersey, showing Clinton coming in 49% to 43%. Rasmussen's poll is still an improvement for Obama who trailed 49% to 37% a few days ago, suggesting that undecideds are breaking his way.

Zogby's other polls are less surprising and less unexpected, albeit the Missouri numbers are interesting:

• The Missouri Dem race is in a toss-up, with Obama up 45% to 42%, a slight downturn from yesterday's 5% lead.
• The Republican Race is perhaps the GOP contest to watch tomorrow given that McCain getting those 58 delegates could be too much for Romney to survive, still looks to be leaning McCain though his lead against Romney has decreased by 5% in two days. Right now, McCain gets 34% to Huckabee's 27% and Romney's 25%.


• And in polls from unsuspensful races, Zogby has McCain up 53% to 24% in New Jersey; 56% to 20% in New York (it is worth noting that's a 10% improvement for McCain in 2 days). Obama is leading by 20% in Georgia, 49% to 29%. Clinton has to improve her situation a bit to prevent Obama from getting too large a delegate lead out of the state.

On the Republican side, a McCain victory in California, Missouri or Georgia would go a long way towards coronating the Arizona Senator. But the situation will not be clear at all among Democrats. As I will attempt to analyze in more depth in the coming hours, a breakdown of the delegate fight shows that, whatever happens tomorrow, neither Clinton nor Obama will come out with that much more than a 100 delegate lead. And if neither makes such a symbolic coup by winning on the other's turf or sweeping most states, the delegate count could be so close that the race would increasingly look like it might last until August...

Obama passes Clinton in first national polls, but read them with caution

Get ready for a never-ending series of Superbowl metaphors over the next 48 hours, whether playing on come backs or on the underdog victory. Quinnipiac already threw one in in its poll release this morning: "Illinois Sen. Barack Obama could make it a fourth quarter surprise for Sen. Hillary Clinton..." Not that the analogy really works with yesterday's game since the Giants went in the fourth quarter with a lead. And with that, two new national polls released this morning have Obama passing Clinton for the first time nationally, an undoubtedly significant measure 24 hours from what has become a quasi-national primary.

• CNN/Opinon Research shows Obama ahead of Clinton 49% to 46%, a lead well within the margin of error but 49% is by far the highest Obama has ever gotten in a national poll.
• Among Republicans, McCain is hardly looking back, ahead 44% to 29% for Romney and 18% for Huckabee.


• A Cook Political Reports's survey shows Obama ahead 43% to 37%. McCain is ahead by 15% here again, 39% to 24% with Huckabee at 18%.

A note of caution is required about these national polls, as perfectly summarized by Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal. What these polls are measuring is not the vote of those who will go the polls on Tuesday, but the preference of Democrats nationwide. Now, not only will "only" 22 states vote on Tuesday, but many of them (like Colorado and Minnesota) will hold low turnout caucuses, making the national polls even more irrevelevant. Furthermore, yesterday's CBS poll shows that, while Obama and Clinton are tied at 41% nationally, Clinton leads 49% to 31% in February 5th states. That subsample has a large margin of error, but keep the possibility of such a discrepancy in mind.

That said, these national polls are useful to measure trendlines, and they are unmistakably a significant Obama momentum that is showing no sign of subsiding and that is threatening to overtake Clinton across the board. More than a traditional primary, this race is starting to look like the state of senatorial elections a week before Election Day, as a small uptick for one party tends to throw almost all the toss-up Senate races in one party's lap (that was true in 00, 02, 04 and 06). If CNN and Cook's numbers hold, we will be in for a big Obama night; but many pollsters are not being that optimistic just yet (starting with Mason-Dixon or even CBS's February 5th numbers) and a minuscule uptick by Clinton could allow her to sweep the Super Tuesday states. And given how dire her situation is said to be now, even the minimal survival scenario for her could come to be described as a victory (just as New Hampshire).

And with that let's turn to some state polls which are obviously the best indicator of where things are heading Tuesday, starting with a new Suffolk poll of Massachusetts:

• Suffolk shows Romney comfortably ahead in his home state, 50% to 37%. But remember that Massachusetts is not winner-take-all, and is one of the only states in the GOP side that awards its delegates proportionally. Margin will matter here.
• Among Democrats, it's a toss-up with Obama up 46% to 44%. That is a massive improvement for Obama who was trailing in this state as of 10 days ago, and it can obviously be attributed to Kennedy's endorsement.

We have had very few Massachusetts polls so it is hard to know exactly what the dynamic is here. The previous two polls had Clinton up by widely differing margins.

Next, we have the very important state of Georgia, which is one of the essential states Romney has to do well in:

• Strategic Vision shows Romney is trailing McCain by 2%, 31% to 29%, with Huckabee at 26%. Those two points mean the difference between no statewide delegates and 33 of them.
• Among Democrats, Obama confirms that Georgia is his strongest state with Illinois, and leads 49% to 27%.

And that leads us to the Tri-State area and three new polls that show some tight races:

• Clinton cannot afford to lose New Jersey, and a Zogby poll this morning had her tied at 43%. Now, Quinnipiac has her leading 48% to 43%. The Clinton camp should be reassured that they still have a lead, but consider how much Obama has caught up in less than two weeks, as the January 23rd poll had him down 49% to 32%.
• Among Republicans, Quinnipiac shows McCain poised to take all of the state's delegates, and leading 52% to 30% against Romney.


• Strategic Vision's New Jersey poll has McCain up by an even more massive 55% to 25% and it also shows Clinton holding on to a thin lead, 47% to 41%.


• And that leaves us with New York, where the Quinnipiac survey shows Clinton ahead 53% to 39%, whlie McCain is up 54% to 22%! More than any other decline, it is her inability to open up a big margin in her home state that will cost Clinton a significant number of delegates that she cannot afford to lose at this point.

One last note on bizarre external factor that could affect the Democratic race: Two Alabama counties voted last Wednesday because Election Day is Fat Tuesday. Their votes are sealed until tomorrow night. But this is one state where the clock was not ticking in Obama's favor. John Edwards only dropped out on Wednesday, and Alabama was one of the only state in which his departure clearly helped Clinton, since Edwards got nothing among the black vote and a significant portion of the white vote; and the vote in these counties before Edwards's withdrawal was announced on the ballot in these counties could potentially cost Hillary a few crucial votes if the contest is close.

Polling tide shifts once more to Obama, as Zogby's trackings show him with expanding leads

As the Republican race is getting slightly more exciting in the run-up to Super Tuesday, I will keep the Democratic and Republican numbers separate in analyzing a large number of new polls.

Democrats: With the release of a worrisome new wave of tracking polls, the tide in good poll news has switched back from Clinton to Obama, with Zogby going as far as suggest as Obama could have a "big night" if this momentum holds up (the Zogby polls were taken Friday to Sunday, making them the most up-to-date, though barely so). But it is worth noting that Mason-Dixon's numbers that were a bit more skeptical of a Clinton decline are supported by other surveys.

First, as always, comes California:

• Zogby shows Obama expanding his lead, now ahead 46% to 40% against Clinton. He was up 45% to 41% yesterday. And get this, Zogby says that Obama is leading Clinton 49% to 32% on Sunday polling alone (though these small samples have a huge margin of error and often show big fluctuations); but it is undeniable that Obama's surge is being felt.

• Obama's surge in California -- also underscored by Rasmussen poll hours this afternoon that showed him edging Clinton by a point -- is confirming by a Suffolk poll that has Obama up 40% to 39%.

• But an ARG survey has Clinton up 47% to 39%. The ARG poll has Clinton ahead 51% to 34% among registered Democrats but trailing 63% to 27% among independents (who only make up 14% of voters in this model).

It is very hard to get a sense of where California is heading, especially when you keep in mind that Obama actually needs to get his voters to the poll whereas Clinton can in all likelihood depend in some sort of lead among early-voters. Remember also that a California victory is mostly meant for spin, and that the real fight will be waged at the district level where Obama could do well by cleaning out the numerous Republican districts that have fewer Democratic voters.

Next comes the all important states of Missouri and New Jersey:

• Zogby has New Jersey staying in a tie, at 43%, the first survey that has ever shown Clinton not winning in the Garden State. Here again, remember that Zogby is being more optimistic for Obama than other recent polls, whether Mason Dixon or Mormouth University.

• In Missouri, Obama surges ahead. He was down 1% yesterday, today he is ahead 47% to 42%, underscoring the extent of Obama's last-minute rise.

We end with the South, in Georgia and Tennessee:

• In Georgia, Zogby shows Obama crushing Clinton 48% to 31%, which is actually a slight improvement for Clinton.
• Insider Advantage also polled Georgia and found Obama ahead 51% to 36%.


• In Tennessee, Insider Advantage has Clinton ahead 55% to 35%, a double-digit improvement by Obama in the matter of a few days but he still remains far.

Clinton cannot afford to lose New Jersey, and Missouri should rather be classified as a must-win state for Obama, albeit one in which he trailed for a long time so his surge here is impressive. Meanwhile, Georgia and Tennessee are among the least suspenseful of Super Tuesday, as there is polling consensus about their splitting between Hillary and Barack.

Republicans: Romney's come back is still as improbable, but there are some signs that are pointing to its possibility. First in California, where two new polls have Romney in the lead:

• Zogby has Romney expanding his California poll, now up 50% to 42% (it was 47-44 yesterday). Romney winning by a substantial margin could mean that he also gets most districts, ensuring he gets a lot more delegates than expected out of Super Tuesday.
• The ARG poll has Romney edging out McCain 33% to 32%, with Huckabee at 16%.

Essential to Romney's chances is McCain losing Missouri and its winner-take-all 58 delegates. At worse, Romney has to hope that Huckabee can topple McCain here to prevent the Arizona Senator from amassing too many delegates. The latest Zogby poll has McCain up with 35% to 27% for Huckabee and 24% for Romney. Other polls have the race closer.

Zogby also polled the unsuspenseful New York race (53% to 19% McCain) and New Jersey (52% to 26% McCain). Both being winner-take-all, even the proportions the candidates receive do not matter, and we can go straight to the fascinating Southern polls of Insider Advantage.

• Georgia will be one of the three keys to the GOP contest on Tuesday, along with MO and CA, and Insider Advantage shows a complete toss-up: 30% Romney, 29% McCain, 28% Huckabee. Even a win by one vote gets whoever gets on top 33 statewide winner-take-all delegates. In a poll released on the 31st, it was 35% McCain and 24% each for Huckabee and Romney.


• In Tennessee, meanwhile, McCain's massive lead a few days ago (33-25 Huckabee-18 Romney) has tightened as well, with McCain up 32% to 30% to Huckabee and 22% for Romney.

The Republican race still unexpectedly holds some suspense, due in large part to Romney's stunning ability to keep California in play. After the rallying of prominent figures to the McCain wagon and the aura of inevitability the campaign acquired, the mere fact that McCain still has to fight for this underscores how much many conservatives mistrust the Arizona Senator.

In day's second wave of polls, Mason-Dixon is more generous to Clinton than Zogby was this morning

Sunday polls bring new evidence that anything could happen on Tuesday evening, and that a national swing of just a few points could lead a candidate to sweep most of the swing states. Just as the Zogby polls released this morning showed some great Obama momentum, a wave of MSNBC/Mason-Dixon surveys just released have better numbers for Clinton.

The fact that really no one knows where the Democratic race is heading at this point is perfectly illustrated by the latest NYT national poll that was released moments ago. The survey has Obama tying Clinton for the first time, at 41%. But among states that are voting this Tuesday, Clinton is massively ahead, 49% to 31%. Considering that it is hard to find a Super Tuesday state with a big Clinton lead at the moment -- including New York -- this finding is very puzzling. The explanation for Obama's rise comes from his increased support among black voters (49% to 67% in a month) as well as white men (23% to 40%).

The most important state in both parties is shaping out to be California, from which we get two new surveys:

• Mason-Dixon has Clinton ahead by a comfortable 45% to 36% with 16% undecided, more than in any other state polled by the group.
• Among Republicans, McCain has a healthy lead, 40% to 31%.


• But a Rasmussen poll of California shows Obama edging out Clinton 45% to 44%, an improvement from the beginning of the week when he trailed by 3%.
• Rasmussen also shows a much tighter Republican race, with McCain and Romney tied at 38%.

The California poll from both parties are all over the place, with the Democratic race now varying between Clinton +9 to Obama +4 in polls taken at the same time; similarly, the GOP race goes from Romney +3 to McCain plus +9.

The second most crucial state to watch is Missouri, which is a must-win for Romney's survival chances. It is also one of the states that Obama has put at the center of his Super Tuesday strategy. And while recent polls have shown Romney, Huckabee and Obama tying the front-runners, Mason-Dixon has good news for Clinton and McCain:

• In the Dem race, Clinton is ahead 47% to 41%. This is an open-primary, and Obama has a lead among independents, while Clinton leads registered Democrats.
• In the GOP race, McCain is ahead 37% to Huckabee's 27% and Romney's 24%.

The third most important state for Romney's chances is Georgia, which is less competitive among Democrats:

• Mason-Dixon pits the Democratic race closer than other polls we have seen (Zogby has Obama up 20%), showing a 47% to 41% Obama lead. Obama leads 3:1 among black voters, and Clinton is ahead 54% to 31% among whites.
• Among Republicans, McCain is on top 33% to 27% for Romney and 18% for Huckabee.


• Rasmussen has a more more comfortable lead for Obama, 52% to 37%.
• Rasmussen also shows a much tighter GOP race, 31% for McCain, 29% for Romney and 28% for Huckabee.

Remember that the statewide winner of Georgia gets 33 delegates winner-take-all, so even those 2 points would mean that McCain takes 33 delegates home and Romney none. Georgia also gives out delegates at the district-level.

Mason-Dixon also released a survey from New Jersey, which has turned into another unexpected battleground. This morning's Zogby poll had Clinton only up 1% and Monmouth University had her up 14%:

• This survey has Clinton up 46% to 39%, which is a bit more comfortable for her. But it confirms that the Tri-State area is now unexpectedly close, which should allow Obama to get much more delegates than previously expected.
• There is less suspense among Republicans, as McCain is up 46% to 31% for Romney and 5% for Huckabee.

Mason Dixon's last poll is a survey of Arizona's Democratic race. This primary was barely polled until the last 24 hours, when Rasmussen had Clinton up 46% to 41%. Mason-Dixon agrees that the race is tight, pitting it at 43% Clinton and 41% Obama. This is another state that Obama was not expected to win and which has attracted less attention than others, confirming that the tightening we are seeing right now is first and foremost a national one.

The Oklhaoma poll released by SoonerPoll today is a bit of an older one (Sunday-Wednesday) and it does not capture the dynamics of Edwards and Giuliani's withdrawals. Among Republicans, McCain leads with 40% versus Huckabee's 19% and Romney's 17%. Among Democrats, it's Clinton at 41%, Edwards in the "mid-20s" and Obama at 17%. This was one of the states in which Edwards was the strongest, so this poll is not a very good indicator of where things are heading since he is still included.

Finally, we got our first poll from Utah today:

• It confirms that Romney has nothing to fear, and that he will get all of the state's delegates. He leads McCain 84% to... 4%! Utah is winner-take-all, but the irony is that Romney would get all 36 delegates even if it wasn't, as McCain is very far from the viability threshold of 15%.
• Among Democrats, Obama is way ahead, 53% to 29%.

The conventional wisdom is that Obama will fare better than Clinton in the red states holding caucuses on Tuesday -- also North Dakota, Idaho -- and this poll confirms that. And that could help him not only to claim he can appeal to independents, but also to come out of Tuesday with a significant number of states under his belt.

In new wave of polls, Obama takes lead in California and candidates tie in major battlegrounds

Zogby just released its first wave of tracking polls from key Super Tuesday states -- including the first California poll in a few days. And overall these surveys are very good news for Obama supporters, as well as for backers of John McCain... though there is unexpected good news for Mitt Romney as well. Add to this a few other polls released over the past few hours, including the notorious Field poll, and we are in for a wild ride to Super Tuesday.

In the fascinating Clinton-Obama showdown, the numbers are now tight across the board. Only a few states that are being polled (New York, Illinois, Georgia) have a clear leader. The rest of the states -- including some very major contests like CT, NJ, MA, AZ, NM, CA, MO, AL -- are way too close to predict at this point.

This means that the delegate count will be excruciatingly close come Wednesday morning, whether or not one of the candidate pulls ahead in the next two days. But also consider that, with Obama and Clinton separated by a few points in all those states and the campaign now national, Obama could post a massive across-the-board victory in most of these contests on Tuesday night by just gaining a few more points until then. Even if he only prevails by 2-3% each in California, Missouri, Connecticut, Alabama, Arizona, New Jersey and he splits the delegates equally with Clinton, it will clearly be seen as a major victory for Barack. Similarly, a recovery of just a few points -- or a stabilization -- by Clinton could mean that she sweeps all those races, and she would emerge of Super Tuesday as the survivor.

Remember, the race will be analyzed as a delegate contest only if the candidates split the major states pretty much equally. And 72 hours from polls closing, the race is in such flux that a sweep is very much possible -- by either candidate.

And with that, let's get to the polls and let's start with the numbers from California, as we have truly stunning numbers for both parties:

• Zogby shows Barack Obama ahead, 45% to 41%. Obama pulls off this stunning come back because of his strength among independents, men and African-American. Clinton's lead among women is "only" 11%, though it is worth noting that she shows no sign of weakening among Hispanic (64% to 29%).


• The Field poll, meanwhile, shows Clinton up 34% to 32% for Obama with 18% of voters undecideds, a high number which makes it hard to compare this survey with Zogby's. The Field poll is known as by far the best poll of California. Two weeks ago, this poll had Clinton up 12%. One reason for this decline is Obama's massive lead among independents, 54% to 32%. Clinton leads among registered Democrats, 37% to 31%. However, the poll was conducted from January 25th to February 1st, so it is unclear how useful of an indicator it is of what is happening in the state, and the low numbers the two candidates are getting is also due to the fact Edwards was in the race for some of this time.
  


• Both polls have numbers for the GOP race as well. And believe it or not, California is one state in which Romney could actually prevail. Don't forget that the GOP contest here is a closed primary. The Field poll has McCain leading 32% to 24%, with Huckabee at 13% and Ron Paul at 10%.
• The Zogby poll, however, has Romney leading 37% to McCain's 34%. Huckabee gets 12%. Romney is ahead 56% to 18% among very conservative voters.
• We also got a poll from Suffolk earlier tonight, which showed McCain 39% to 32%.

• The Field poll also tried general election numbers and shows Clinton up 45% to 43% and Obama up 47% to 40% against McCain in California, suggesting that there is a major anti-Clinton mood in California right now. The New York Senator led her Arizona colleague by double-digits just two weeks ago.
  

There were signs pointing to Clinton's collapse in the state in polls released last week but Zogby's is the first that shows Obama in the lead. Unfortunately, neither Zogby nor the Field Poll give us any indication of how the early vote breakdowns are affecting the results. With about 25% of the electorate having already locked in their vote, where do these voters fall? It seems unthinkable that early-voting is not taken into account, but it is also really strange that there is no mention of that in either survey!

Clinton should also be reassured that she has kept her lead among Hispanics despite Obama's efforts to cut his losses there. But Clinton is certainly losing her hope of getting a big delegate lead out of California. No one will claim the lion's share of the state's 370 pledged delegates.

Among Republicans, the fact that Romney is staying alive is truly stunning. And he will certainly be able to press on if he pulls off a victory here. But let's not overestimate the impact of even such an unexpected exploit: California is not a winner-take-all state, so McCain will not be shut out of delegates no matter what. But contests where McCain seems untouchable right now (CT, NJ, NY, AZ) are winner-take-all. And Romney will be shut out of delegates there.

Next we have unexpectedly tightening numbers in another state Clinton has to do well in, New Jersey. The last two polls had Clinton up 6 and 12, and two new polls released tonight paint even more opposite pictures:

• Zogby's poll has Clinton having entirely collapsed, edging out Obama 43% to 42% edge. Clinton is ahead among women by only 9% and is holding on to a big lead among whites and liberals; Obama is crushing Clinton among blacks (74-16).
• But Clinton should be reassured by a Monmouth survey that has her up 50% to 36%. One big difference is that Obama's lead among African-American is much less pronounced (57% to 24%). The poll was taken from Wednesday to Friday, so it greatly overlaps with Zogby's.

• Among Republicans, McCain shows no sign of trembling and is likely to get all of the state's delegates. He is ahead 55% to 23% for Romney in the Monmouth poll, almost exactly the same as Zogby's 54% to 23%.

The Tri-State area is clearly no longer a Clinton stronghold, though New Jersey is still looking a bit better for Hillary than Connecticut. There is no question that losing one of the area's three states could be a blow to Clinton, but losing two could be a terrible symbol (I don't think there is much of a need to say what would happen if Clinton loses New York), and one that many newspapers will lead with since press time will come before the victors are known in the Western states.

Zogby provides us also with numbers from Missouri, one of the most fascinating battlegrounds of Super Tuesday:

• Here again, the Clinton-Obama dual is completely tied, with Clinton at 44% and Obama at 43%. Clinton does better among liberals, and Obama among independents. These numbers are consistent with other polls we have seen over the past two days that have consistently shown a toss-up in this state.


• Among Republicans, McCain is up 36% to Huckabee's 27% and Romney's 22%. This contest is also winner-take-all for the GOP, so even such a small victory could give McCain 100% of the delegates. If Romney and Huckabee want to prevent McCain from getting the nomination on Tuesday, they have to stop him from getting Missouri's delegates as that -- combined with those from the Tri-State area -- could really give him too big a lead.

Zogby finishes things off with numbers from two states that are heading towards landslides:

• In Georgia, Barack Obama is ahead 48% to 28%, confirming other polls of this past week. Georgia's demographics are similar to South Carolina's. Also, 23% of voters are still "undecided/someone else," more than in other Zogby surveys, which suggests a lot of Georgia Democrats might be willing to go for John Edwards.
• In New York, meanwhile, McCain is not looking back. He is ahead 49% to 23% against Romney, with Huckabee at 8%.

As an extra bonus, Rasmussen released numbers from a rarely polled state that has a significant number of delegates, Arizona. And the numbers are tight in both parties, surprisingly so given that this is McCain's home state:

• He is leading 43% to 34% in this winner-take-all contest. Arizona is a closed primary, suggesting that the state's conservative voters are not enthusiastic about their Senator.
• In the Democratic race, Clinton is ahead 46% to 41%.

The race to the finish will be fascinating to watch.

Update, in answer to comments: (1) As I said, the early-vote results cannot be not be included in these polls even though it is not made explicit. It would make no sense for the pollsters to ignore it, and it's not like it's hard to include voters who have already voted. Whether Clinton actually has an advantage because of this, as one comment pointed out, can be debated. Were the people who voted Clinton early voters who would have backed her anyway? Or might some of them have changed their mind?
(2) It is silly to accuse me Obama-bias because I point out that he is rising in polls ... which he is. These surveys show Obama gaining on Clinton. In states like Missouri and California, he was down by more than 15% a week ago so his come back is undeniably impressive. Today, all polls show him tied in such battlegrounds. There is no question Obama has surged, but there is also no question that he has not surged enough to take a lead in any of these state but Georgia. As I have said repeatedly, Clinton has not sank because she started off strong enough that her decline of support has resulted in a tie. And I certainly believe (as I said) that both candidates could sweep the close state by just a 1-2% uptick in their national standing.
So everyone stay chill. Polls are polls and there is so much flux in the race right now (Edwards's withdrawal, debate) that very little will be surprising come Tuesday.

New series of polls has Obama gaining ground in key Super Tuesday battlegrounds

So much for my complaint this morning that there weren't enough Super Tuesday polls. A series of surveys released early this afternoon (2 from Connecticut, 2 from New Jersey, 1 from New York, Illinois and Alabama) have Obama gaining ground in some key battlegrounds. He is clearly moving upwards, the question now being whether he will have time to rise a few more points to upset Clinton across the board come Tuesday. Now imagine how suspenseful this week would have been if Romney had won in Florida three days ago, as both races would then be tight heading into Tuesday.

Overall, all these polls paint a very divided Democratic electorate, with both candidates consistent in what groups they are strongest in. Keep an eye on the stunning gender gap in particular, that is often close to 30 to 40%. Obama gets men, Clinton gets women. Most polls also have Clinton up among whites and Obama among blacks, with Clinton holding firm among Latinos.

First, Gallup's national tacking poll that has the race tightening for the 9th straight day. Now, Clinton's lead is down to 3%, 44% to 41%. Among Republicans, McCain is ahead 39% to 24% against Romney and 17% to Huckabee. Fox News also has a national poll out and it shows a bit better news for Clinton, who is still leading 47% to 37%. The national polls are obviously very instructive at this point, since February 5th is as close to a national primary day as the US has ever seen.

And with that we got an impressive series of state polls. First up, Alabama and a new SUSA poll:

• Among Democrats, Clinton and Obama are tied at 47%. Clinton has a massive lead among white voters (65% to 28%) and Obama among blacks (72% to 23%).
• Among Republicans, McCain is ahead with 40% to Hucakbee's 31% and Romney's 21%.

Alabama should be one of the most fascinating states to watch on Tuesday night. Edwards's withdrawal means that the white vote will not divide itself between Clinton and Obama and the racial polarization of the Southern states will greatly help Clinton here. The proportion of black voters in Alabama is inferior to that of Georgia and South Carolina so that Clinton now has a chance of pulling out a victory here. Among Republicans, the few Southern states that are voting on Tuesday are must-wins for Huckabee, so these numbers are bad news for him.

Next, we move to the Tri-State area where Obama is climbing fast. First, New Jersey from which we get two polls today:

• GQR has Obama closing the gap, now only behind 44% to 38%. Edwards supporters are moving to Barack, explaining his rise.


• SUSA has better news for Clinton who is still ahead 51% to 39%. That is due to a massive edge among women, whom she leads 60% to 31%; Obama is ahead 50% to 40% among men, creating a 39% gender gap!
• Among Republicans, McCain is up 48% to 25% for Romney and 9% for Huckabee.

Let's move next door to New York, where Clinton's lead is not as big as it once was:

• SUSA has Clinton ahead 54% to 38%. 3 weeks ago, Obama was trailing 56% to 29% and while he is far from victory that bump means many many extra delegates.
• Among the GOP, McCain is ahead 55% to 21% against Mitt Romney, seemingly benefiting from the support of former Rudy backers.

And that gets us to the tightest race of the region, Connecticut, where two polls paint two very different pictures:

• SUSA came out with a truly shocking poll that shows Obama ahead 48% to 44% amidst a 30% gender gap. This poll conforms to a Rasmussen survey from a few days ago that had the pair tied at 40%.
• Among Republicans, SUSA shows an unshakable McCain, up 53% to 31% on Romney.


• ARG is more generous to Clinton, showing her ahead 48% to 35%. It agrees in McCain's lead, 43% to 25%. ARG's track-record over the past month is not particularly successful, so keep that in mind.

These numbers are very significant. On the GOP side, all three of these states are winner-take-all. Formerly Giuliani strongholds, they are now assured to go for McCain which means that he will get all of the delegates that are awarded in New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, 183 total! That will by itself guarantee that he will come out with a massive advantage over Romney who will be completely shut out.

Among Democrats, the Tri-State area is Clinton's base, her backyard. Any Obama victory in one of those 3 states would generate awful press for Clinton and would bode well for Obama. Furthermore, Clinton was hoping to bury Obama with a delegate lead out of these three states and it looks like that will not happen. New York especially has 281 delegates at stake, and if Obama is keeping it this close statewide it means he will also win some congressional districts and be very close in others, denying Clinton an advantage in delegate out of her home-state.

And that gets us to Obama's home state of Illinois, where a new poll from ARG shows Obama ahead 51% to 40% in his home-state. A Rasmussen poll this morning had him up at 60%, so both of today's ARG polls have Clinton higher than she is in other polls. There is no question that holding the race close here would give Clinton an unexpectedly high number of delegates. McCain is up 48% to 34% in the GOP race.

Finally, the last poll comes to us from one of the tightest battlegrounds we have on Super Tuesday, Missouri. SUSA came out with a poll that has both races very tight.

• Among Democrats, Clinton is up 48% to 44%, in a 40% gender gap (+22 among women, -18 among men). Another gap here is between registered Democrats (who go for Clinton by 11%) and independents (who prefer Obama by 20%).
• Among Republicans, McCain is ahead 34% to Romney's 30% and Huckabee's 28%, though he runs third among self-identified conservatives. This is the only state polled today that does not have McCain up big, for those keeping track of that.

Obama has long placed Missouri at the center of his Super Tuesday strategy, since he wants to make the argument that Clinton is having trouble winning away from the coasts.

Holding firm among women, Clinton keeps her Massachusetts and New Jersey leads

We are only 4 days from Super Tuesday, but the small numbers of polls that is being released is stunning. We have gotten one poll from California and one from New York in days, and nothing for a couple of weeks from key battlegrounds like Missouri and Minnesota. Compare this with the situation just like week in Florida. As a result, it is difficult to measure the extent of Obama's upward movement and to have any idea of what is going to happen in most of Tuesday's states. With that, here are the few surveys that were released since last night:

• Rasmussen polled New Jersey and finds that Clinton is ahead by double-digits, 49% to 37%. The poll was conducted on Wednesday, and it marks a significant improvement for Barack who trailed 45% to 27% two weeks ago.

Edwards is not included in this poll, and his supporters appear to have moved disproportionately to Obama, giving him the highest total he has ever gotten in a New Jersey poll. That could be key come Tuesday because Obama would be able to get a significant number of delegates if he stays close to his rival. Obama's continuing weakness is the female vote, which Clinton is winning by 24%. Obama is actually ahead among males by 5%, a rather massive gender gap. Clinton has been safe for months now because of her advantage among women, and Obama has not been able to break that code just yet.

• Among Republicans, John McCain is ahead 43% to 29% with Huckabee at 7%. Giuliani was not included in the poll and McCain is heading to victory in a winner-take-all state.

As we have pointed out many times before, McCain's strongholds are winner-take-all (Arizona, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey), which is going to shut Romney out of delegates in some massive states. By contrast, Romney's home-state of Massachusetts is one of the only state that allocates delegates proportionally, which is obviously awful news for Romney. We got two polls today to confirm that Romney has a large lead in MA:

• Rasmussen attributes 55% to Romney and 23% to McCain, followed by Huckabee at 8%.
• SUSA shows Romney with 57% to McCain's 34%.


• The Democratic race is much more interesting in MA now that Kennedy (and Kerry) have endorsed Obama. A Rasmussen survey a few days ago gave Clinton a 6% lead, but SUSA is much more reassuring, pitting the race at 57% for Clinton and 33% for Obama. That is still a significant improvement for Barack, who trailed 59% to 22% just a week ago.

If Obama is picking up 13% a week throughout the country, that could put him over the top in places where he started closer to Clinton. But here again, Obama will have to find a way to challenge Clinton among the female vote. He is being crushed 65% to 26% among women in this poll; compare that to males where he is tied at 44%, up from 48% to 25% last week. If Obama's momentum is limited to male voters until Tuesday, he could get close to Clinton but will have a hard time coming out on top.

Finally, Rasmussen also released a poll from Illinois, Obama's home-state. It has Obama leading 60% to 24%. The survey was conducted on Tuesday, so it still has Edwards at 11%. This is great news for Obama, who is winning Illinois by a far larger margin than Clinton is winning New York and that could prevent Clinton from getting a lot of delegates in Illinois and could allow Obama to create some margin between the two nationally.

Update: I obviously deleted the comment from an Obama supporter that was filled with a stunning list of profanities, words to which many of the comments in this thread are responding. I know the Obama-Clinton contest is coming down to the wire and that supporters of both candidates are very tense and eager to defend their choice, but that's no reason to resort to such language or that much hatred.